Roll2

Took a look at some historically bad teams that came to mind to check Rotoman's hypothesis out.  According to BR, the '03 Tigers had 43 wins, 27 saves, but divided among 8 players, with none getting more than 5.  In contrast, the '13 Astros had 32 saves in 51 wins, with Jose Veras getting 19.  The team put up similar numbers the two previous years, albeit with different primary closers.  So, as with any closer, the variable to apply when determining the bid is "how likely is he to retain the job?"  With a really bad team, one would think the likelihood is great, but I'm not sure it is so great in this instance to discount the bid to mid-single digits.  More like high 8 to 10.  If there is any organization that is the least likely to figure out they should be auditioning different guys out at the end of games, in order to increase their July trade value, it is the O's.  Plus, when wins are at a premium for a team, my guess is that the managerial tendency is not to take the chance on a less proven guy blowing one, if for no other reason than to appease the more shorter sighted of a dwindling fan base.