Thread: Patton $ Online

A discussion about what your dollars get you.

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Just in time ... CBS is doing an auction for the 60 game season today.

It's 12 teams, both leagues - so values will be out of whack.  Usually in this format I tend to go heavy on the "Stars and Scrubs" approach.  

I'm thinking in the era of Covid - when any freaking player out there might (a) test positive and disappear for a few weeks (ie - up to 40% of the season even if they're asymptomatic) ... or (b) just say "F-it" and go home - that's not the right approach.  Will instead be trying to maximize the number of 3rd-4th round type players I can get on my team, so any individual hit won't damage me as much.
Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Okay, the Excel file is updated as well. A close look at the projections tells just how crazy this 60 game season, if it's played, will be. The team with the most hot hands is going to win.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

They're posted! Subscribers should find links to the full updated program, the text files and updated data (PWO PWW and PWM) files. This was a bear of an update, so please keep your eyes peeled for mistakes. We fixed lots of things (players who are out with prices, for instance) but if we hear of more we'll post about them here.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

I'm not sure about paying the stars less. I mean, if you do that you have to pay the middle guys more and they're just as likely to go down. Why overpay them if they don't?

Or maybe you pay more for the scrubs, because that's where you going to find big profits. You just don't know which ones.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

So we're back to "Buy the 26, 27, and 28 year-olds"

Kent Ostby Seadogs

This has long struck me as the ultimate spread-the-risk season. The other big question is whether there is a significant difference based on age. Not in terms of getting COVID-19. But rather in terms of sitting out the season if and when things get dicey. A pre-arbitration player probably doesn't have the financial resources to take the hit to his family's earnings. But a 29-year-old on a multi-year contract certainly does. 

Walter Shapiro WShapiro

I think you're right Kent. But the stars who don't go down, who have hot starts, are going to have some amazing earnings.

So will the hot scrubs, of course.

Alex Patton Alex

Roster Resource at FanGraphs has a lot of the bullpen, rotation, order stuff that you can leverage.

Rotoman -- as I've said before, stars should be lower than usual this year since they could very well get Covid through no fault of their own. It's an unusual risk for this year (and probably next).

Kent Ostby Seadogs

Good thing it wasn't today...

My main contribution in this first update will be to predict batting orders, rotations and bullpens. I'm glad I'm not predicting wins. That's Peter's job.

Alex Patton Alex

Hey all, I finished the first pass of classifying players in the 30 or the 60 earlier today, and prorated all the projections. 

I'm spending the next three days trying to allocate wins differently, and shift bids based on the differences in strength of schedule. 

Correcting Alex's announcement, July 9 is update No. 1, but that's a Thursday, not Tuesday. 

To be honest, I'm not sure there is higher thinking about how to handicap all this.

For instance, pitchers are usually ahead of hitters. But hitters have the advantage when the world heats up. So, who has the advantage on July 24?

I'm leaning more to spread the risk rather than stars and scrubs, because the stars shine over the long term, not as reliably in the short term. But on the other hand, in the short term the bottom of the barrel guys, because of injury opportunity or a hot streak, could be league changers. So why not invest in the best players whose wives aren't having babies this summer?

I'd be curious to hear who you think will benefit by the totally unbalanced schedules. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman