Thread: Notes for Masochists

How much is a player worth?

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Just did my initial pricing for hitters and pitchers. Added in my expected keepers for my primary league.  (Only 3 leagues left to go).  After I added inflation I have a $2188 hitting/$934 pitching split. Yes, it's $2 off, but after 30 years I think I can handle that. 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 24

Man I wish Fangraphs would update its ZiPS DC projections. Correa and Story still don't have teams and I want to finish my hitting values tonight. I did pitchers yesterday.  I have 149 ranked and only the top 108 priced. Surprisingly only 5 starters below the 108 threshold. That's unusual for me. Usually I have more short inning relievers in the top 108.

FWIW I have one Orioles starter and two relievers in the top 108.  One reliever in the undrafted group and their other 10 pitchers unranked completely. The Rangers also have 3 priced pitchers, two are starters and they have two unpriced pitchers. The Rays have the most ranked pitchers with 17, which is more than their major league roster will have at any one time. 12 are priced, 6 of whom are starters. 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 21

How much is a player worth? For real?

That's what the 99 days leading up to yesterday were about, no?

The following article is posted for free at Baseball Prospectus. Most of us are too exhausted by the 99 days to read it now, and I can tell you I'm exhausted after reading it. But it's well worth reading at some point. The struggle really was about getting a fairer shake for the little guys, even the little guys (some of them) who are still in the minors.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/73093/the-mlbpa-wanted-pre-arb-players-paid-more-and-they-will-be/

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 11

Easy yes:  Rolen, Kent, Andruw Jones.

Other yes:  Wagner, Helton.

Easy no:  all the steroids guys we know about

Tough no:  Ortiz.  I don't buy those who argue his stats are borderline.  The HOF sniff test says you always thought of him as a HOFer when you watched him hit. 

But.....it's not *just* the 2003 steroid test, it's the 2016 batting line.  I see him as baseball's Lance Armstrong, who used to say he was 'tested and tested and tested'.  Just because Papi was clearly one step ahead of the testing doesn't mean he wasn't using.  His career arc alone suggests he was.  Unless in 2016 (or 2011-16) he took up yoga or launch angle or was just in the best shape of his life thanks to a diet consisting solely of blueberries and Evian.

That plus the positive (and maybe a dash of roid rage) and I don't think I could check the box.

Mike Landau ML-
Jan 13

I consider peak to be best 7 year non-consecutive seasons.  He had a very concentrated 5-6 seasons.  His top 7 seasons make up 3/4 of his total value.  I see that as problematic for a HOF candidacy. 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 12

re: Sosa ... "nothing else" ... I'm not a big Sosa fan, but 2 30/30 seasons prior to his "great peak" seem like more than "nothing" ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Jan 12

Mine mix playing career and certain factors that I find disqualifying.  My disqualifying factors, like everyone else's are subjective.

Easy Yes

1 Bonds

2 Rolen

Borderline Yes Hitters

3 Andruw Jones

4 Big Papi

5 Sheffield

6 Abreu

7 Kent

I think Starters of this era need to be reconsidered:

8 Buehlre

9 Hudson

10 Pettitte

Nos, but considered strongly

Clemens - b/c of statutory rape

Schilling - b/c of suggestions to hang journalists; desire not to be consdired

ARod - suspension for PEDs

Manny - multiple suspensions for PEDs

Sosa - great peak, nothing else

Helton - too many on my list, behind the other corner hitters/DH in my rankings, went with Kent over Helton for my last hitter, otherwise he's a yes for me

Wagner - too few innings

Rollins - I'd like more chances to evaluate his career, but he's no better than 12-15 on my list

Nathan - see Wagner

Not considered based on performance alone

Vizquel

Hunter

Lincecum

Howard

Morneau

Papelbon

Pierzynski

Teixeira

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 12

Bonds, Clemens, ManRam, Wagner.  OK, Schilling too.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 11

Who would you have voted for (up to 10) on the HOF ballot.

Here's mine: Bonds, Rollins, Clemons, Ortiz, Andruw Jones, and Schilling.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jan 11

As I've just shown in Juan Soto's thread, it really doesn't matter if I use .250 or .251 or .252 as the batting average of the average player in fantasy leagues. In most cases it doesn't make a dollar's worth of difference. But it matters to me, now that I've discovered that the NL hitters had the same batting average as the AL hitters last year, and I've made my choice: .250 is the benchmark for both leagues in the 2021 formulas.

Any hitter who hit .251 last season was a little bit valuable in the batting average category, which seems about right.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 18 '21