Thread: Notes for Masochists

How much is a player worth?

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Howard Lynch LynchMob
Apr 16

I did it. I went all-in early. I got Trout as the first announcement at $47. Everyone was gun-shy early.  I surprised myself with Bregman for $36. I announced Luis Robert and got him for $41.  I was ecstatic. But, I was also afraid the others would go too cheap.  LeMaheiu went for $41 and all was good. Then Rendon went for $40. I still had good deals comparatively. When the bidding was going one at at time for Altuve I jumped him to $25 and everybody waived goodbye. I got him a dollar over my par price.  At that point I had very little remaining, but I had four of my top five players on the board.  People asked if I was going to leave early. I asked if it was still a 10 team league.  Torres eventually went for the same price as Bregman and while I was a little disappointed, I didn't get him instead I think being aggressive early was the right plan.

The rest of the draft went perfectly. People overpaid in the middle rounds on $10-15 players. They also spent a ton of money on closers.  Only $15 was left on the board. I was expecting a lot more.

I closed out my roster with a rocking pitching staff of almost all starters:

I started with BIEBER $17 and MINOR $2.

I added

Robbie Ray $10

JA Happ $3

Matt Boyd $3 (shocked me)

Rich Hill $1

Garrett Richards $1

Tarik Skubal $1

Garret Chrochet $1


My offense filled out nicely too.  Keepers in CAPS.

C SEAN MURPHY $7

C Sisco $3 (need one Oriole)

1B SANO $15

2B Altuve $25

3B MONCADA $20

SS ADAMES $8

CM Bregman $36

MI W Castro $7

OF T HERNANDEZ $7

OF GROSSMAN $1

OF Trout $47

OF Robert $41

OF Fowler $1

DH Arraez $1

I sat on Arraez, who I love, for the entire end game until nobody could take a MI anymore.  I may have let better players go, but not at his price.  Fowler will play everyday. We'll see how he does.  I'm not expecting much, but for a full-time player, the end game of 10 teams is so different than 12 teams.  I'm excited. I hope I have enough speed.  Altuve and Trout have to do a little stealing.  My power should be off the chart and I should win Avg and I hope to win Runs and RBI too.


Thanks to everyone who encouraged me just to bid on the top guys and figure it out from there. It worked perfectly.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 31

Prepared to figure it out.  Trout's inflation price is $60, Gleyber $50, Bregman $47, Robert $46, Altuve $45, Rendon and LeMahieu $44. Nobody else over $38.  I'm planning to get two of them and then figure out the rest. I'm going in with the most money (or close to it) and I've got Bieber for $17 on a long-term contract just signed, so I have one of the league's stars. Based on "expert" auctions, I expect that I have Altuve higher than everyone else.  I am not going to wait around for Trout. That should be settled early because of his differential from everyone else. Robert has the most unique skill set b/c of the SB.

10 teams is just such a strange environment for someone so used to 12 teams.  I'm planning for 6-7 $1 pitchers.  There's just too much variability among the pitchers who will be drafted for $5 and under and those who won't be drafted at all (but have prices for 12 team leagues).  IP requirement has been reduced to 950 due to starter usage patterns and expectations this year.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 24

Kent,

We had a similar situation in a salary cap fantasy football league awhile back and we came up with a (I think) clever solution to 'keep the math in check'. 

First, run the numbers and figure out how underpaid players will be in a 10 team league vs. a 12 team league. Let's say for argument's sake it's 20%. 

Furthermore, let's say you have $100 to spend in the auction. You will get your players for that $100, but they should be undervalued going forward. So, what you would be forced to do (right after the auction) is to take your $100 of auction buys and add $20 to their salaries. You could get to choose exactly how you'd want to distribute that $20, but you'd have to put it somewhere on the players you bought at auction. 

And of course, similarly, every other team would have to add an aggregate 20% to all the players they bought at auction as well. And if you had an in-season cap, you'd have to adjust that slightly upwards to account for the extra salary. You might have to adjust the cost of acquired free agents as well, since the quality of them should be better. 

Keith Prosseda andypro
Mar 23

The rule is, the shallower the player pool, the more replaceable every player is.

So, the players for whom there is no (or a lesser) replacement get more valuable. 

Basically, in shallow leagues spend your money on the best players. And then figure it out. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 23

When we drop below 12 teams, we boost the pot and players. Usually a second UT, another pitcher and $20 bucks. That helps keep the math in check so that next year when we hit full stride, we don't have a ton of under valued players from the season we were short.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 23

Your chopping is good.  Cutting the last players to $1 is good. 

Now the math....12 teams to 10 teams is a 17% drop in the overall player pool $. 

Now the art....My experience is you have to give everyone a hair cut, but the tax should be regressive. The lowest bid prices should take a higher % cut from their previous bid.  This is because the free agent pool contains more replacement players who are about as good as the $1 and $2 players. 

I'd love to see what others have found.

John Hobbs Real-Joker
Mar 23

One of my leagues just announced it's down to 10 players. This, of course, drastically affects pricing, although not the way I would have thought before I read this site about shallow leagues

I have to do keepers by tomorrow at 10pm - yes, that's a very late announcement that they didn't find replacement owners. 

I've already chopped off the players who won't be drafted. I've knocked the bottom players at each position down to $1 from whatever higher perch they previously occupied.  If my 30th MI went from $8 (in my 12 team pricing scheme) to $1 (in 10 teams), what do I do with the guys who were $10 or $12?  If I take too much away, I guess it all goes to the top guys who now have even more value. But, how deep do I cut? Everyone $15 and under takes a haircut? By percentage? Subjective by feel? 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 22

First pass through the pitchers comes out to $984. That's $48 over, but not so bad.  It's all relative.  Giolito comes out slightly ahead of Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber in my calculations.  Grienke is a distant 4th. Lance Lynn, Ryu, Berrios, and Glasnow a step behind, all essentially tied for 5th.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 7

When you sort by position to get the right number of players and you go through your initial prices and they add up to $2,157 out of the $2,184 you intend to allocate to hitting, you know you've been doing this a long time or you're really lucky.  

Still have to add projections for later signings like Mitch Moreland, so when he gets his money, it will be even closer.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 7