Zack Wheeler Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 31 (May 30, 1990) | 6' 4" | 195lbs. | Throws: Right P-29
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYM AAA 2018 1 0 0 0 1 1 5.0 3 1 1 6 1.80 0.80 1.00 1.8 10.8 .198 n/a
NYM NL 2018 12 7 0 0 29 29 182.0 150 14 55 179 3.31 1.13 1.09 2.7 8.9 .289 44/20/35 18 19
NYM NL 2019 11 8 0 0 31 31 195.0 196 22 50 195 3.97 1.26 1.30 2.3 9.0 .329 43/21/35 12 15
PHI NL 2020 4 2 0 0 11 11 71.0 67 3 16 53 2.92 1.17 1.12 2.0 6.7 .303 56/25/19 24 22
PHI NL 2021 14 10 0 0 32 32 213.0 169 16 46 247 2.79 1.01 1.01 1.9 10.4 .302 50/23/28 32 32
PHI NL 2022 1 3 0 0 6 6 31.1 30 2 10 32 4.31 1.28 1.21 2.9 9.2 .332 40/26/34 0 1
Career 8yrs 63 53 0 0 175 175 1063.1 966 96 342 1058 3.54 1.23 1.20 2.9 9.0 .310 n/a
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Went for only $15 today in my NL only. Everyone was gun-shy of the top injured/horrible starters ... DeGrom 19 as well. Other starter prices were pretty normal Rodon (34), Buehler (30), Bassitt 20, Maneaa 21, and Musgrove 24.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Apr 24

Per rotoworld/nbc today ...

Zack Wheeler was lit up for seven runs in three-plus innings by the Marlins on Sunday.

This was an awfully discouraging outing. Wheeler averaged 97.1 mph with his fastball last year. His first time out this season, he was at 95.0, which was understandable after his minor shoulder issue this spring. Today, though, instead of getting a little stronger, he was down to 94.4 mph, and he wound up getting just one missed swing on 41 fastballs and sinkers. Maybe his stuff will begin to come back soon, but this version of Wheeler isn't a very good pitcher.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Apr 18

He went for a mere $26 last weekend in LABR. I guess they knew about this. I didn't and would have kept bidding.

Had shoulder soreness in December
March 13, 2022
Wheeler is "feeling good" after being delayed by shoulder soreness when he started his throwing program in December, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports. "I knew we had time, so I wanted to play it safe and make sure I built up like I usually do, like I need to, and just be safe with it," Wheeler said Sunday.
He has already been ruled out as the team's Opening Day starter. Wheeler said the soreness dissipated quickly, but caution put him behind schedule. He has yet to throw off a bullpen mound and could do so as early as Monday. Per Salisbury, it's not out of the question that Wheeler could be ready to start sometime during the first week of games, just not the opener. The Phillies first require a fifth starter April 12, but Ranger Suarez (visa issues) is also behind schedule and Zach Eflin (knee) is questionable for his first turn through the rotation. Aaron Nola should be the Opening Day starter with Kyle Gibson following him and the likes of Hans Crouse and Bailey Falter in the mix for early-season work until the rotation is at full strength.
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 13

I just posted these top-five lists on deGrom's page; they should also be posted here.

Lindy's Baseball Preview --


Jacob deGrom 91.6

Zack Wheeler 91.6

Sandy Alcantara 90.5

Shane McClanahan 89.2

Frankie Montas 89.0


Jacob deGrom 99.3

Sandy Alcantara 97.9

Gerrit Cole 97.7

Luis Castillo 97.3

Zack Wheeler 97.1

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 20

How good was Wheeler?

Five lowest EV (minimum 200 TBF):

                                        EV            ERA          xERA

Brooks Raley                 83.0           4.78            3.92

Blake Trienen                 83.3           1.99            2.45

Kenley Jansen               84.0            2.22           2.83     

Jonathan Loaiziga         84.0            2.17            2.16                

Zack Wheeler                84.6            2.78            2.78

A starting pitcher, finally, breaks the top five in the Statcast metrics showing the weakest contact (Barrel% on Clase's page, HardHit% on Jansen's).

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 7

Totally agree.

The number of baserunners that a pitcher is responsible for who scored ... was the number of baserunners that a pitcher is responsible for who scored.

Just like we don't decide who makes the playoffs by pythagorean win-loss record.

Too much of stretch to start breaking things down to components to measure actual value.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Dec 17 '21

Fangraphs WAR is based on what xFIP believes (as programmed) should have been. It's really a strange statistic and I think less reliable than bWAR for that reason. 

It uses K, BB, and HR (also I believe normalized based on league average HR rates/FB) to determine the value of a pitcher. It treats the three true outcomes as the actual outcomes normalized over a season versus using the actual outcomes of the situations to calculate WAR. I don't like it.

I'm fine with using xFIP to predict the future, but I don't like using it to predict the past, when the past is actually known. Theoretically it removes all luck, but I think it injects a lot of false assumptions, such as also eliminating usage patterns, fatigue, stretch/windup success, etc. For pitchers I much prefer bWAR.

I also like to use ERA+ times IP to roughly see how much value a pitcher added.

By that back of the envelope calculation, Wheeler beats Burnes, but Walker Buehler bests both of them.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Dec 17 '21

Burnes had better WAR based on Fangraphs, 7.5 to 7.3.

Regardless of that, Burnes had the 16th lowest FIP of all time at 1.63. Only 1999 Pedro had a lower FIP in the live ball era. Wheeler's FIP was 2.59, almost a run higher.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Dec 17 '21

The Statcast stats are essentially the same as the year before and so, really, are the results. The only change that jumps out at you is the K rate.

It's surprising that he earned so much more last year than the year before. The K rate doesn't even figure in the 4x4 value. He won a few more games (per start) and had slightly better qualitatives. 

Even so his ERA+ (150) wasn't quite as good as the year before (154). 

He led the league in IP, CG (3) and shutouts (2). In addition to SO.

He had as many first place votes (12) for the Cy Young Award as Corbin Burnes but fell slightly short in total points (151 to 141). WAR, for sure, was not the deciding factor.

Burnes: 5.6

Wheeler: 7.6

I would have voted for Wheeler, not because of WAR, but because 213 IP is a whole lot more than 167. Especially last year.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 17 '21
2020: FB 66% FBv 96.9 EV 85.8 HardHit 31% Barrel 4% HR/FB 8% FIP 3.22
2021: FB 61% FBv 97.1 EV 84.6 HardHit 28% Barrel 5% HR/FB 11% FIP 2.59
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21