Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 22 (March 16, 1999) | 6' 2" | 250lbs. | Bats: Right 1B-133 3B-1 DH-28
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
TOR R 2018 3 9 3 3 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .400 .556 10 10 .375 n/a
TOR A+ 2018 1 4 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 .500 .500 .750 0 0 .500 n/a
TOR AA 2018 61 234 48 94 21 27 19 1 14 60 3 3 .402 .449 .671 8 10 .402 n/a
TOR AAA 2018 30 110 15 37 15 10 7 0 6 16 0 0 .336 .414 .564 12 8 .323 n/a
TOR A+ 2019 4 15 2 4 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 .267 .353 .333 6 12 .308 n/a
TOR AAA 2019 9 30 7 11 4 2 1 0 3 8 1 0 .367 .441 .700 12 6 .320 n/a
TOR AL 2019 123 464 52 126 46 91 26 2 15 69 0 1 .272 .339 .433 9 18 .308 50/17/33 13 13
TOR AL 2020 60 221 34 58 20 38 13 2 9 33 1 0 .262 .329 .462 8 16 .282 55/17/28 21 22
TOR AL 2021 161 604 123 188 86 110 29 1 48 111 4 1 .311 .401 .601 12 16 .312 45/19/36 41 39
Career 3yrs 344 1289 209 372 152 239 68 5 72 213 5 2 .289 .367 .517 10 16 .305 n/a
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An even bigger difference for Vladdy than Bryce when it comes to swinging and missing vs. and swinging and missing with two strikes.

K% 82

Whiff% 28

Whiff% is simply swing and misses divided by swings. Compared to other batters Vladdy does that a lot (more often than 72% of batters that Statcast measures).

He strikes out seldom (only 18% of the batters fan less often).

As I noted on Harper's page, the two rates are more or less the same for most batters.

Some other percentiles:

Judge

K% 25

Whiff% 23

Muncy 

K% 57

Whiff% 61

Ohtani

K% 7

Whiff% 3

Alex Patton Alex

Statcast xBA: .306, tied for fifth in the majors (with Aaron Judge).

2021 HardHit% has been corrected.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 6

Ah, wer're talking dynamic hard-hit rate (DHH%) in the Batted Balls section. Why didn't they say so?

I have plenty of questions about all the new metrics -- does the Statcast HardHit% include balls that go straight up as pop flies? -- and I don't have the patience to pursue all the answers. For me the value of the Statcast metrics is to see the change from one year to the next. However Barrels are calculated, clearly a big jump in Barrel% means the batter barreled more baseballs, and clearly barreling the baseball is a good thing.

BABIP doesn't show how something happened, it shows that it happened. If a batter's Barrel% goes up one season while his BABIP goes down, it seems to me he had more bad luck that year (or more good luck the year before). Unless an unusual number of barreled balls left the playing field and don't count in his BABIP; there's always a qualification.

I think the two-year scans of Statcast stats give a quick, accurate answer to the question: how well did the batter hit the ball compared to the year before, regardless of results? But each measurement has to be the same each year. When we fix this, we're going to go with Statcast's defintion of a hard hit ball: anything that leaves the bat at 95+ MPH. Pop fly, line drive, worm killer.

At least I think that's what Statcast means by Hard Hit. As long as it's the same measurement each year, it tells us something.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 31 '21

I'm starting to think there's something wrong with the HardHit percents we are showing. How could Vladdy's be lower in 2021 than it was in 2020, when his EV, Barrel and HR/FB numbers are quite dramatically (and expectedly) higher?

At Baseball Savant, his HardHit% is 55.2 -- more like it.

Here's the problem (I think): Fangraphs has two different HardHIt percents, one under "Batted Ball," the other under "Statcast."

Batted Ball: Vlad's HardHit% is 41.7.

Statcast: 55.2.

Baseball Savant very clearly says Hard Hit means 95 MPH+. Maybe for the three types of Batted Ball -- Hard/Medium/Soft -- Hard is considered to be 98 MPH+? Something like that?

This wouldn't be a problem, if the two Hard percents we are showing in our Statcast scans had the same benchmark, but I'm beginning to realize they don't.

This won't be easy to fix.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 30 '21
2020: EV 92.5 HardHit 51% Barrel 9% HR/FB 18% LA 4.6 Pull 42% Cent 35% Oppo 24%
2021: EV 95.1 HardHit 55% Barrel 15% HR/FB 27% LA 9.4 Pull 40% Cent 36% Oppo 25%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21