Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Age: 26 (November 20, 1996) | 6' 3" | 240lbs. | Throws: Left Minors: p-24
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
DET A+ 2019 4 5 0 0 15 15 80.1 62 5 19 97 2.58 1.01 0.98 2.1 10.9 .306 n/a
DET AA 2019 2 3 0 0 9 9 42.1 25 2 18 82 2.13 1.02 0.87 3.8 17.4 .381 n/a
DET AL 2020 1 4 0 0 8 7 32.0 28 9 11 37 5.62 1.22 1.47 3.1 10.4 .263 28/18/54 -2 3
DET AL 2021 8 12 0 0 31 29 149.0 141 35 47 164 4.35 1.26 1.46 2.8 9.9 .293 38/20/41 5 10
DET AL 2022 7 8 0 0 21 21 117.2 104 9 32 117 3.52 1.16 1.13 2.4 8.9 .307 46/19/35 11 12
Career 3yrs 16 24 0 0 60 57 298.2 273 53 90 318 4.16 1.22 1.33 2.7 9.6 .296 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

I have him at $10 in an AL only league and I may keep him. Either that or I'll toss him back and buy him again so I can roster him in 2022 and 2023. It's normal for a young pitcher to struggle early in his career. But the Tigers are improving and this kid looks like a star to me. It's coming soon. 

Scott Shea SJS
Dec 8 '21

I'm forever the optimist. 17 of those 35 homeruns occurred in two months. The walk rates dropped significantly last year in the second half. He's young enough that I don't think we can rule out the possibility of improvement, especially with the lost 2020 campaign. Did I mention that I have a vested $7 interest in the XFL? 

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Dec 8 '21

Todd Zola at Rotowire:

64. Tarik Skubal

Ah yes, the star of the 2021 First Pitch Arizona symposium. There is always one pitcher who comes out of the conference with extreme helium.

The reasons are clear. Skubal has a live arm and can miss bats. But geez, those homers. In 2020, Skubal allowed nine in only 32 frames (2.53 HR/9). Last season, he served up 35 long balls in 149.1 stanzas (2.11 HR/9). YIKES!

When you surrender that many homers, you must be unlucky, right? Well, Statcast pegged Skubal for 38.6 homers last season and 9.1 in 2020. According to their metrics, he was actually LUCKY!

I mean, he must get better, right? Skubal is a flyball pitcher, so he'll organically carry a high home run rate, but he should pair that with a low BABIP, plus working high in the zone helps punchouts. Even so, inducing more groundballs wouldn't be the worst thing.

The main culprit is a 20.5% HR/FB mark last season, on top of a 20 percent mark the prior campaign. According to Fangraphs, the league average in 2021 was 13.6 percent. Pitchers can be above or below, but 20 percent is dangerous territory. Is it fixable?

Year

4Seam%

4s HR%

2Seam%

2S HR%

Slider%

SL HR%

Curve%

CV HR%

Change%

CH HR%

2021

42.8%

7.8%

12.9%

4.8%

22.8%

2.6%

6.8%

4.0%

12.1%

1.9%

2020

58.9%

8.2%

 

 

15.7%

3.2%

7.8%

0.0%

16.4%

7.4%

Again, with the caveat it always doesn't work out as expected, fewer four-seam fastballs should lower homers.

Deciding on the best landing point is subjective. I looked at some of the other pitchers with similar HR rates and they almost all fell the following season, but then again, they had to, no?

I dropped Skubal to a 1.46 HR/9. It's clearly still high, but it's a huge decline from last season.

Skubal is an early candidate for, "He's so underrated, he's overrated." The narrative will be his upside is huge, so it's worth speculating in case something clicks. Everyone chases the upside to the point you're paying for it, mitigating profit.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 8 '21

And it paid off. Any day now I'm expecting to see the same treatment as Casey Mize is receiving, but the future is looking very bright for Skubal. 

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Jul 21 '21

Put your money on Tarik tonight.

Stathead Lowlight: Rangers

Most runs allowed in a 4-game span while scoring just 2 runs or fewer in that span

Team Start EndRA Final Record RS
SDP2017‑09‑12 2017‑09‑164171‑912
TEX2021‑07‑162021‑07‑193935‑59*2
CHW1948‑05‑051948‑05‑093551‑1011
SLB1904‑08‑221904‑08‑243465‑872

* - current record

See the full list at Stathead.com's NEW Team Batting Span Finder

Alex Patton Alex
Jul 20 '21
Charlie BlackmonKetel MarteJosh NaylorBrandon WoodruffLucas Giolito

Yesterday's Top Performers

Pitchers:

Brandon Woodruff* (MIL): 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 10 K, 81 GmSc

Lucas Giolito* (CHW): 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 12 K, 76 GmSc

Kevin Gausman (SFG): 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 75 GmSc

Tyler Mahle (CIN): 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 8 K, 72 GmSc

Tarik Skubal (DET): 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 8 K, 71 GmSc

View All of Yesterday's Pitchers at Baseball-Reference.com

* - pictured above

Alex Patton Alex
May 31 '21

I read that Teheran and Skubal have been announced as making the opening day roster and in the rotation. Not sure what that means for everyone else considering I think only Boyd was a lock.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 24 '21

Tarik Skubal (P) DET - Mar. 23

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=766597

Skubal allowed two earned runs across four innings in Tuesday's Grapefruit League game against the Yankees. He gave up five hits and five walks, while striking out three.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: This was Skubal's worst outing of the spring, as it's the first time he's given up a run, but at least he was able to limit the damage despite allowing a ton of baserunners. The young lefty has probably done enough to earn a rotation spot, though the Tigers have some decisions to make with pitchers such as Skubal, Casey Mize, Michael Fulmer and Julio Teheran, who are battling for spots behind Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 24 '21
Percentiles: FBv 71 FBs 82 CBs 16 Barrel 13 EV 27 xSLG 22 xERA 46
Alex Patton Alex
Mar 15 '21
Subscribe to see this comment.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 12 '21