Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Starting my pricing today. There are way too many free agents to make this a smooth calculation. But considering we didn't move our draft from April 2, I don't have that much time. This is the latest I've started pricing for a 162 game season. I'm usually done by March 1 with some tweaking during the last month.

I'm now in 4 AL only leagues, so once I get the first pricing down, I have to adjust it to each league's quirks. Not much time left.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 13

I thought he might take the Carter Stewart approach and head to Asia. It probably can't be completely ruled out, depending on what happens in June. 

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Feb 3

No place to really talk about Kumar Rocker, but the former top 10 pick may play with an independent league in the lead up to the draft.  Still an intriguing prospect.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Feb 2

Some other possibilities 

Day games vs night games.

Wind blowing in or out.

Maybe a breakdown on each hard hit ball into outs, singles, doubles, triples, and HRs

Overall Judge had 95 1b 24 2b 0 3b 39 HR

Overall Tatis had 62 1b 31 2b 0 3b 42 HR

Based on that it's possible Tatis had a much higher percentage of his hard hit balls find the OF gaps or down the lines for doubles and Judge a higher percentage hit right at the OFers for singles. 

van wilhoite LVW
Jan 24

Is Statcast Stage Four?

Of all 634 pages in the 2022 Bill James Handbook, the most interesting to me is p. 460.

Hard Hit Balls

Highest Percentage of Hard Hit Balls -- Players with 250+ PA in 2021

The first guy on the list is Fernando Tatis. 48.0% of the balls he put in play last year were hit hard (95+ mph). The slugging average on all the balls he put in play -- including Medium and Soft -- was .898.

The second guy on the list is Aaron Judge. 46.9% of the balls he put in play last year were hit hard.  The slugging average on all the balls he put in play was .763.

A huge difference! Before the advent of Statcast, who knew?

Tatis hit 158 balls hard last year. His slugging average when that happened was 1.506.

Judge hit 186 balls hard last year. His slugging average for those events was 1.268.

Is the difference a matter of luck? Hard hit balls that were caught versus found the grass? Or cleared the fence?

Is the difference line drive percent? Barrel percent? Launch angle?

People at Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic are asking these questions. People in all 30 front offices are asking these questions and being better compensated for their efforts.

I'm asking the question here because it's surely something all us wonder about all winter long, some of us every day, others just every other day: is there anything in all the new metrics that's predictive? Something that gives us just the smallest edge?

Me, I'm in the first group, I think about it everyday. Do I think about it as seriously as Robert Orr?

Not even close.

I'm happy to skip down to the end of an article like his (below) and see a list. But if the stuff leading up to it is hard to fathom, I -- you know -- skip it.

Th Aaron Judge/Fernando Tatis comparison? The question it raises?

Simple, and the answer is easy. Compared to Tatis, Judge had much worse luck on his hard hit balls last year. Yes, he may have hit more mile-high pop ups. That could be a small factor. There could be others. But the big picture is clear.

And then the question is, is it predictive? Should I nudge my bid limit up on Judge this year, knowing that he had some bad luck last year?

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 24

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Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 12