Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Lynchmob, my dollar value generator tells me what the player earned in monetary terms, but it is calibrated to price projections. Nobody has a 56 save projection or a .61 ERA and Ratio. So Eck and Thiggy are super valuable, but are they more valuable than Sandberg? I have to admit I was too chicken to find out. If we were to do this again for 1990 and I had the third pick it would be interesting to start out with Eck. I'm just not sure how I'd go from there building out a team.

One thought: If you start with 50 saves you win the category without having to get so many actual closers. So you can pick hitters for the next 10 rounds, or maybe one good qualitative bad wins/Ks starter. 

And to your point, if Erickson had taken Eck to start he likely would have landed Fielder in the second round. Same difference.

As for Sandberg, those dollar values are pure value of the stats, no position adjustment made, though saves and steals are valued less than the other categories. (And obviously I chose to make a position adjustment for Savers when drafting.) I took Sandberg as best available hitter, glad to get the position advantage, because that was his value.

FInal thought: I followed my dollar values (proxies for rankings) more closely in this draft and did better. One place where I failed, however, was in using the values to fill out outfielders and utility before filling MI, leaving me in a less flexible and ultimately losing spot. The rankings/dollar values are a great guide and contain info we have a hard time synthesizing, but the exercise definitely relies on strategic forethought and then adjustments depending on circumstances. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 9

Check this thread eight days ago: you'll see Gene (who had the first pick) and me placing bets on when Eck would go.

I can tell you when Eck seemed to be coming back to me in the second round, I was getting pretty excited.

Yes, we could just as easily use points. The idea is to put players in a ranking at each position -- and then once the gun sounds, all that goes to hell.

That's what has taken me two failed rounds to learn.

Why didn't I learn it after one round?

Why didn't I figure it out before round one? I keep asking myself that. Because that's when you have an edge. Now all of us have sharpened our games. After a mere two rounds all of us are in Stage Three.

Have we learned anything about baseball?

No, none.

But we are learning things about this particular very subtle, super challenging game. It would be a completely different game (not nearly as challenging but probably still fun) if we couldn't look at the standings after each pick, but we can and we do.

I'll be playing it again in two weeks. Peter and Tim are playing next week They're younger, need fewer days between starts.

Alex Patton Alex
May 9

With the 3rd and 4th picks, you both (Peter, then Alex) passed on the player you both agree was the 2nd most valuable player (so you didn't believe your values?) ... as did everyone else in the 1st round (which also suggests an issue with your values, perhaps)!  But he didn't last until your 2nd pick ... interesting (to me) to note that the owner who did take Eck with his 2nd pick took a player with his first pick (#6 overall) that neither of you value in Top 12 (Fielder) ...

I assume Peter took Sandberg due to "hidden" value related to "position scarcity" ... so ... uh ... Alex ... how do you explain taking the guy you valued at $40 over the guy you valued at $41?  (you really didn't believe in your values?)

And for the purposes of a "draft" ... isn't "points gained" a better (more applicable) metric than "dollars"?  I get that they are equivalent ... I'm just saying that there's no need to translate "points gained" into dollars if your not going into an auction ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 8

That's good, isn't it, Peter?

We have different travel routes but get to similar destinations for most players.

Biggest discrepancy I see is you have Eck a little higher, Thiggy substantially lower.

What price did you have for Ramon Martinez and Viola?

Alex Patton Alex
May 8

Hmmm. My top 12:

Clemens $54 (1)

Eckersley $48 (19)

Henderson $45 (2)

Sandberg   $41 (3)

Bonds $38 (5)

Dave Stewart $38 (7)

Drabek $37 (22)

Gant $37 (8)

Murray $35 (12)

Thigpen $34 (29)

Dykstra $34 (24)

Danny Darwin $33 (43)

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 8

The Scott Williamson types have been going high, you can't sneak 'em past this bunch. It's a mystery to me why more teams don't use relievers that way, and if you answer "because they'll get hurt," they get hurt anyway. Maybe we'll see more this year with a shortened season and the 3-batter rule.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
May 8

1999 season.....Billy Wagner should be the 1st reliever off the board. 4 Wins, 39 Saves, 74 Innings of a 1.57 ERA and 0.777 WHIP and 124 K. 

It will be interesting to see where Scott Williamson gets picked. 12 Wins 19 Saves 93 Innings of a 2,41 ERA and 1.039 WHIP and 107 K.

van wilhoite LVW
May 8

Alex, a few years ago at Shandlerfest Brian Feldman took starting pitchers with his first FOUR picks - and he nosed John Menna on the last day to win the league. These retro seasons are wildly different from each other. I bet you could win 1999 if you started with Pedro and, say, Kevin Millwood. You might have to dump Saves, but the hitting is abundanza. I mean, 103 hitters hit 20 HRs or more. Almost half the stat sheet hit at least .280, and 50 guys stole at least 20 bases.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
May 8

The top 12 players in 1990 according to my calculations (and where they were picked in the actual draft):

1. Roger Clemens $50 (1)

2. Dennis Eckersley $46 (19)

3. Rickey Henderson $43 (2)

4. Dave Stewart $41 (7)

5. Bobby Thigpen $41 (29)

6. Ramon Martinez $40  (4)

7. Barry Bonds $40 (5)

8. Frank Viola $39 (20)

9. Doug Drabek $39 (22)

10. Ryne Sandberg $37 (3)

11. Chuck Finley $36 (23)

12. Ron Gant $34 (8)

Alex Patton Alex
May 7

Our next draft is the 1999 season. Of the Top-30 strikeout pitchers that year, only eight had an ERA of 3.50 or lower. RJ had 364. Pedro had 313. The third place finisher was Kevin Brown with 221 K's. #30 on the list is Steve Trachsel with 149 K's and a stellar 5.56 ERA. Do we see SP go 1/2 next week?

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
May 7