Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

Okay, one more. I added a NET column. This show the total profits and losses based on their spot in the auction. I'm not sure if this adds anything, but it does help show one pertinent fact. Players bought 35 negative valued players for -$226, which definitely changes the equation.

If you want to look at this data you can download the excel file here.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

Here is the same chart, sorted by standings order, with the points for pitching and hitting included.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

So, I mapped my player prices to the players each team drafted in the 1999 retro draft. The winner, Fred, bought the second most value, and I bought the fourth most (I finished third), but Dean, who bought the most finished sixth, and Doug, who bought the third most, finished ninth. And Jeff, who finished second, bought more talent than only three teams.

Not sure what that means.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

After three of these retro drafts, the answer to Howard's question -- what is the best/preferred draft position? -- is, there doesn't seem to be one. Here's the finish of the 1999 retro (order of pick in the first round):

1. Fred (10)

2. Jeff (8)

3. Peter (2)

4. Eric (4)

5. Paul (9)

6. Dean (1)

7. Derek (7)

8. Justin (6)

9. Doug (5)

10. Ron (11)

11. Al (12)

12. Scott (3)

1982 and 1990 were similar.

Alex Patton Alex
May 18

I did bite off more than I could chew, but thanks for the op to chew on it a while.  I've sent you a reply with a few data manipulations that might be a source of insight for you.

(edited: i found a major excel boo-boo in my pitching$ manipulations)

Two thoughts that I did come up with are ... 

1. Given your list of $ values for 276 players, I think that means that each
place in that ranking means that’s how much the pick “costs” … so then pair
that up with what the actual picked earned … and you have a Profit & Lost
value for each pick … for example, the 3
rd pick in the 14th
round corresponds to a player who should be worth 19, and the actual pick was
Olerud who earned 19.8, for a 0.8 profit … and very few 1Bmen actually were
picked at a profit … but Fred
could have done even better with that pick by taking Mark Grace, who earned
20.4 (and was taken with the 9th pick of the 14th round).

2. The league "bought" $3440 worth of hitting and $2512 worth of pitching ... what's that tell you?

If I had more time ... the thought that Larry Walker is overvalued is consistent with my gut feel that Alex overvalues BA ... so maybe I'd tweek Alex's formula for BA$ and see if the result is $earned/team that is a better correlation to the final standings?

And if I still had time, I'd mock up a simulation whereby each team takes the best-player-available and see what the results are ... I'd hope the standings would be much tighter ...

Question ... does anyone who has participated in these have a feel for best/preferred draft position?  Is it better to go #1+#24 or #12+#13?  One theory I'd study (again, if I had time) is that #12+#13 might have an advantage in that it's more likely that they can capitalize on a mistake by a previous owner ... ie. the team with the #1 pick can only make a mistake, but the team with the #12 pick might be able to get the 11th best player ... might even be able to get the #1 player (if all other 11 owners make the same mistake) ... so ... in reality ... the best draft position is right after the owner who is most likely to make mistakes :-)

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 17

Larry Walker looks overvalued to me. The .379 is lovely but only 166 hits, and he's 23rd in RBI and 32nd in Runs.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
May 16

If there's ever a retrospective AL auction, I'd be interested.  Can't do drafts or mixed or NL.  My skills aren't particularly transferrable.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
May 16

Careful what you ask for Howard. I just sent you the spreadsheet

There's a link in this thread somewhere to Todd Zola's Google doc.

Have fun!

Alex Patton Alex
May 16

An exercise proposal ... distribute those $ to the teams that drafted the players ... does the winning team draft the most $?  Or better ... I assume your $ split up into $/category ... do sums of those $/category align with the points/category in the final standings?  Send me your data/formula, and I'll answer the questions :-)

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 16

To get people interested (or not), here's the first round of the 1999 draft on Wednesday with what my rough formulas show the players' stats were worth.

1. Pedro Martinez $71

2. Randy Johnson $71

3. Derek Jeter $35

4. Ivan Rodriguez $37

5. Larry Walker $37

6. Jeff Bagwell $37

7. Sammy Sosa $35

8. Manny Rodriguez $36

9. Roberto Alomar $34

10. Kevin Millwood $56

11. Kevin Brown $54

12. Chipper Jones $37

Some first-round opportunities here unless my formulas are completely missing the picture. 

Or pitcher.

Alex Patton Alex
May 16