Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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It was a tough night. For the first time I wasn't in the lead early, because I took no hitters, but after fleshing out a staff I had 12 wins points and 11 saves points and great qualitatives, with three pitchers left to buy. But then the rot set in. As I'm putting together an offense, teams with bad ERAs and WHIPs start loading up on bad pitchers with plenty of wins and saves. I made up some ground with Pariss and Veres late, but then they chipped away and it hurt.

For the third try I didn't pay enough attention to position scarcity, and I think that was the difference. All the top productive catchers except Pudge went a couple rounds early (Pudge couldn't have gone earlier). I made sure to get my middle infielders done, so I could take advantage of outfielders late, and I didn't worry about catchers because there were a few low AB ones with decent batting averages that I figured would be there. What happened, however, was that I needed  80 runs and could only eek out about 40, while Fred was able to jump over a bunch of teams in Runs and RBI with Klesko. Fred was able to do that because he took two good catchers early. 

The thing about not planning to dump a category is you can end up wasting picks adding stats that you end up not using. On the other hand, there is definitely an advantage to dumping one category, as Fred did, rather than three, as Jeff and I did.

One interesting tidbit is that Paul, Justin and Al, three of our four newbies, competed in all 10 categories and finished fifth, eighth and 11th. Newbie Eric, who planned on punting saves only, finished fourth. I'm not sure Ron and Scott planned on dumping cats, but they finished next to last in six categories and in 10th in two more. while finishing 10th and 12th. 

The teams with the most wins are the teams with the worst ERAs, for the most part, while the teams with the best ERAs are the teams with best ERAs, generally. This isn't a surprise, but it argues for choosing to go one way or the other. My effort to win all five pitching categories was likely doomed from the start.

My lessons this time: Better factor in position scarcity. Make a pitcher or outfielder your last choice. Better figure out a path to dump two categories, not three.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 14

When everyone knows what players are going to do, it's impossible for any one team to run away from the pack. I think that's the main thing.

I'll be doing one more of these (next Wednesday, also 1999). Now that we all know what we're doing, it's become something of a grind; I imagine it will be my last.

The question is, how do I play it? I'm trying to think outside the box and find myself boxed in.

Maybe I'll give my spot up to Peter. He's come this close each time.

Alex Patton Alex
May 14

Do we think that if 11 out of 12 teams "play it straight", then the 12th team (the one that punts a category) will win?  And so enough owners know (or at least suspect) this ... so fewer (much fewer?) than 11 out of 12 team "play it straight" ... and so results are ... mixed?

Is a game that promotes "team balance" a better game?

An example of a change that might promote "team balance" is reducing the points for finishing 10th/11th/12th ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 14

But Fred had 17 saves, in a 12-team mixed league, good for two points. The team below him had three saves and finished fourth. The highest finish for a balanced team is fifth. The next best balanced team finished eighth. 

They may not all have started out with the idea of punting a category or two (or three; Jeff and Peter punted three) but they ended up there.

Alex Patton Alex
May 14

I'd guess that Klesko was about the 130th most valuable hitter in the draft ... to get him with the 167th pick is ... valuable ... but every other team passed on him about 3 times ... probably locked out by position?  ... and/or "strategy" (ie. I'm going to try to win by some other strategy than take-the-best-player-available).

I still think the lesson here is ... your odds of winning if you punt a category are less than 1-in-12 ... and if you punt two categories, they are a lot less than 1-in-12 ... BUT ... to be fair ... both the 2nd and 3rd place teams punted 2 categories ... so ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 14

With the eighth pick in the last round, Jeff Erickson looked like he bathed himself in Yoohoo for the second time in three tries, jumping from fifth (or thereabouts) with the pick of Russ Springer.

Russ Springer!

And then, with the tenth pick in the last round, Fred Zinkie jumped from fifth (or thereabouts) to first -- by nine points -- with the pick of Ryan Klesko.

Wow! What an ending. 

I have no idea how it happened.

I missed a lot of the action; I suspect if I had watched every pick, I still wouldn't know.

Hopefully, Peter, who finished third, will tell us in due course.

I'm sure he's pretty tired. It's an exhausting 3 1/2 hours.

Alex Patton Alex
May 14

Doug Dennis looks like he's punted batting average (2 pts) and he's batting .293!

Alex Patton Alex
May 14

In Round 14 eight teams have batting averages of .300 or better. When it's all over more will.

Alex Patton Alex
May 14

Thru 5 rounds, Peter has taken 4 pitchers ... hmmm ... I'll say it ... "I don't like it" ... we shall see ... if the depth of hitting is there, and the pitching value is very top heavy, then he's in GREAT shape ... I have not looked at the distributions enough to have a feel ... it's fun to watch the standings evolve ...

UPDATE: Now 5 pitchers thru 6 rounds ... on the other hand, someone has already taken Omar Daal and Pete Harnish ... so ... good pitchers seem VERY likely hard to find from here on out ... clearly that works to Peter's favor ...

UPDATE: Now 6 pitchers thru 7 rounds ... and 15 of the last 20 picks have been pitchers ... 

UPDATE: Thru 8 rounds, Peter is last in HRs, RsBI, and Rs ... and in first place overall ... (with 76 points)

UPDATE: Thru 9 rounds, dropped 3 points and 1 place (ie. 2nd place with 73 points)

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 14

I have the #1 pick next week and being an old 'Spos fan I'm not sure which direction I'll be going. I sure would have liked to have seen that rotation anchored by Pedro and RJ for about five years. Have fun tonight, Peter!

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
May 13