Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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You're right. In a retro draft, as in any self-respecting Roto league, there should be an IP minimum.

For me, the big discovery was that concentrating on ribbies and BA didn't get me even a decent amount of runs. I didn't ignore position scarcity, in the sense that I was thinking about it each round, but just before I was about to act on it with a specific pick, somebody else made that pick. Not counting the last outfield slot, which I deliberately left open to take Ryan Klesko (the kingmaker in the earlier 1999 retro), my last five hitters were catchers and middle infielders. I was starved for runs, dropping farther in that category each round, but the cupboard was bare.

Gene and I both punted saves and steals. He nipped ahead of me in steals with his last pick. I retaliated by nipping ahead of him in wins.

Jeter's always been overrated.

I say that half-seriously. If we want to talk about real baseball, we could talk endlessly about that.

Alex Patton Alex
May 21

I think I'd be wary of drawing too many general conclusions from such an extreme season. One thing I noticed very early last week was how many teams were chasing the ratios, with pitchers that I had valued at negative values going, as early as the mid-teen rounds. That's because it was such a horrific year to be a pitcher. There were not enough of those pitchers to go around, so that's why I thought it was worth my while to steer into punting the ratios, and chasing wins/strikeouts/saves. And there were plenty of those to go around. To wit, Aaron Sele had a 4.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP - horrible, right? But the MLB averages were 4.71 and 1.463 respectively, so if he brings something else to the table, he should still be playable. And he did - 18 wins and 186 K's. I still had him as a $9 player, well above a bunch of pitchers taken before him (17.08) because of the ratios. I think our strategies/conclusions have to shift with a given year, and often the strategy evolves during the draft. 

Jeff Erickson JeffErickson
May 21

And this proves ... if you take Jeter in the 1st round, you won't finish well ... or ... if you take a SS in 1st 2 rounds (as *5* owners did!), you won't finish in Top 3 (ie. maybe position scarcity isn't as much of a factor for SS as many feel?) ...

I assume no minimum IP rule?  Why play the game?  JeffW wins the "find the biggest loop hole" game.

If Gene figures out a way to give up just a few HRs (20) and RsBI (50) for 10 more Rs, he wins ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 21

After four contests, it's now official: the way to go is the Rotoman Regimen. Punt wins and Ks. Here are the results last night.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-SM1p4zw9A1p7fSiztFNP21it9so81pvEjPQLX4WTSo/edit#gid=0

The year was again 1999 with mostly new participants.

Here's what happened a week ago.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qKKORTfmXmmx6AEwTUJ6Kn9yZ1G6xBWATq65oSx8_E0/edit?ts=5eb8a24c#gid=0

Even if you have no interest in these retro drafts, you shoulld explore Todd Zola's ingenious Google doc. I can see where it would be very powerful in a real draft -- or auction -- using projections.

Alex Patton Alex
May 21

There have been positional problems. The simple answer, he did not.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 21

Chuck Knoblauch played OF in 1999? 

van wilhoite LVW
May 20

Doug led in ERA and was second in WHIP. I was second in ERA and third in WHIP. Dean was third in ERA and first in WHIP. Fred was first in strikeouts and fifth in ERA and WHIP. And the three of us are way ahead of the other nine teams, with Fred finishing just ahead of them. 

I think this shows not a problem with my pricing, but a problem with pricing in general. The dollar values work, but they then have to be applied to the right stats when you're constructing your team. In other words, it's not the meat it's the motion.

But one issue to be aware of is that pitcher value very much depends on which 108 pitchers you value. The math will tell you one group, but as we can see, for a team in a particular position, a player like David Cone or Pedro Astacio will have real value and supplant one of the 70 inning relievers with a low ERA and Ratio that usually reside in the $1-$5 range.

So, if you go and reprice the actual pool, so that the worst pitcher is worth $1 and the 108 add up to $1092, the value of Pedro Martinez drops from $55 to $25. 

In the prospective leagues we usually price for, this phenomenon drives up the value of the best pitchers, but when we know what the stats are we're going to add up to it seems to do the opposite. Here's how the Retro earnings looks with the pitching pool repriced. 


This doesn't really make sense to me logically but eyeballing the Dollar totals in this chart makes more sense to me than the earlier one.

UPDATE: About 20 minutes after the original post I realized that the hitters need to be adjusted too, for the same reason. Here we see the much tighter results we'd expect from a tight race. I will post updated net numbers if get a chance, and I'm definitely going to repeat this analysis on tonight's results.  


Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 20

Peter ... going back to this "Doug, who bought the third most, finished ninth."

Did Doug lead in any categories? (i.e. did he blow money in those categories that didn't help him gain points?).
If not then it might call into question your assumptions on pricing.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 20

That's interesting. The tiers in ERA are a few teams battling around 3.00 and many more teams at 3.75 to more than 4.00. Fred taking Astacio has a ton of impact in K and Wins and maybe cost him one ERA point. I made a similar calculation when I took David Cone earlier, but I needed Astacio, too.

I swapped my Steve Karsay for Fred's Pedro Astacio and gained a half point. Not a big difference. But managing how ERA and RATIO points are swapped for quantatives is clearly a big part of the game.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 20

My first observation is ... the team that drafted the most hitting$ won ... so perhaps everyone else undervalued hitters, to some extent?

Peter has Pedro Astacio as worth -$20 ... Alex's spreadsheet says +$15 ... that seems a difference to explore ... given that he was on the team that won (Fred) ... Fred got value from Astacio's 17 Wins and 210 Ks despite his 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.


Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 19