Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

I'm not sure there should be an innings limit -  I'm not flat opposed, but since dumping something seems to be a requirement for winning my default position is to leave all options open. What works in 1999 is no sure thing to work in another year. I propose leaving the rules as they are for another round and see what happens.

Howard - I know, but the Runs just weren't there that I could see, and I was fighting for every last one. I needed one OF and an MI. Warren Morris was a no-brainer at that point and the only OF alternative to Tony Phillips was Erstad, and I was worried that the RBI issue wasn't settled yet. Turns out Erstad would have left me a few Runs short anyway.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
May 22

Howard: before I started.

This is a very tough game that requires many skills, quite a few of which I lack. 

There's no official clock but there definitely is one. From the middle of the draft on, finding just the right player requires jumping around in your spreadsheet and making seat of the pants calculations. I'm bad at both.

But at least in this, my third try, I bought some hitters! For the first two rounds I followed my plan to buy the best players available -- who happened to be pitchers -- and then I pushed hard for a four-category offense (no steals).

I think I was in last place after six rounds. Then the offense reached the rest of the pack and I started to climb.

Lo and behold, in round 16, I was in first!

Was I fooled?

Maybe a little. But not really. I had packed in a lot of offense at the corners and in the outfield and had yet to buy a catcher or middle infielder.

I kept meaning to give a nod to position scarcity, but just before I picked Ed Taubensee, for instance, somebody else picked him. I bought another outfielder. I even filled my DH spot (with Mike Sweeney).

It was just a matter of time, in the last third of the draft, before teams I had passed in the hitting categories, would pass me back. Where the weak middle infield and catching corp really hurt me was in the runs category.

I didn't think you could compete in RBIs and batting average without being at least okay in runs. Turns out you can.

We play this game to learn something. I'm not sure it will help me in a real-life draft but it might.

Alex Patton Alex
May 22

Agree there should be a minimum innings total. Not sure that dumping Wins and Strikeouts is a total winner. But dumping something is important, whether you quit from the git go or give it a round or two to decide.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 21

Alex - at what point in the draft did you know that you would not win?

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 21

Pshaw. He might be underrated. I mean, just add the factor to his numbers if he took steroids like everyone else in his era.  Paging A-Rod and Nomar, who was the best SS of the three?  Hard to know since you boys weren't legit.

Mike Landau ML-
May 21

"Jeter's always been overrated.

I say that half-seriously. If we want to talk about real baseball, we could talk endlessly about that."

Amen to that - just this morning (well, yesterday afternoon when we pre-recorded the show) we were talking about how so many were outraged that a voter left Jeter off his HOF ballot, that said voter didn't publish their ballot, there needs to be an investigation, etc... when so many objectively better players also didn't get in unanimously. Willie Mays! Johnny Bench! Hank Aaron! So many others! But no, it was Jeter's lack of perfect ballot was the call to arms!

Jeff Erickson JeffErickson
May 21

Jeff is taking us in a completely different direction (I see after making my post).

A very good point about what an extreme year 1999 was. And even so, I predict the only way the Rotoman Regimen loses in future retros is if two or more teams pursue it.

Or we add an IP minimum.

Alex Patton Alex
May 21

You're right. In a retro draft, as in any self-respecting Roto league, there should be an IP minimum.

For me, the big discovery was that concentrating on ribbies and BA didn't get me even a decent amount of runs. I didn't ignore position scarcity, in the sense that I was thinking about it each round, but just before I was about to act on it with a specific pick, somebody else made that pick. Not counting the last outfield slot, which I deliberately left open to take Ryan Klesko (the kingmaker in the earlier 1999 retro), my last five hitters were catchers and middle infielders. I was starved for runs, dropping farther in that category each round, but the cupboard was bare.

Gene and I both punted saves and steals. He nipped ahead of me in steals with his last pick. I retaliated by nipping ahead of him in wins.

Jeter's always been overrated.

I say that half-seriously. If we want to talk about real baseball, we could talk endlessly about that.

Alex Patton Alex
May 21

I think I'd be wary of drawing too many general conclusions from such an extreme season. One thing I noticed very early last week was how many teams were chasing the ratios, with pitchers that I had valued at negative values going, as early as the mid-teen rounds. That's because it was such a horrific year to be a pitcher. There were not enough of those pitchers to go around, so that's why I thought it was worth my while to steer into punting the ratios, and chasing wins/strikeouts/saves. And there were plenty of those to go around. To wit, Aaron Sele had a 4.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP - horrible, right? But the MLB averages were 4.71 and 1.463 respectively, so if he brings something else to the table, he should still be playable. And he did - 18 wins and 186 K's. I still had him as a $9 player, well above a bunch of pitchers taken before him (17.08) because of the ratios. I think our strategies/conclusions have to shift with a given year, and often the strategy evolves during the draft. 

Jeff Erickson JeffErickson
May 21

And this proves ... if you take Jeter in the 1st round, you won't finish well ... or ... if you take a SS in 1st 2 rounds (as *5* owners did!), you won't finish in Top 3 (ie. maybe position scarcity isn't as much of a factor for SS as many feel?) ...

I assume no minimum IP rule?  Why play the game?  JeffW wins the "find the biggest loop hole" game.

If Gene figures out a way to give up just a few HRs (20) and RsBI (50) for 10 more Rs, he wins ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 21