Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Exactly. I tried to set up that situation, but failed, so my last two picks were futile. The best players for my spot barely moved the bar.
Justin's last two picks took him from sixth place or thereabouts and then to a commanding lead.

His stolen base pivot happened late and was excellently executed. Dee Gordon? No positive value on my sheet, but worth a lot of points for Justin in the end. As did Maybin, and his balls forward play for Wainwright's Ks despite his quals was brilliant.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 5

To plan to punt SB and end up with 10 points in SB certainly suggests a pivot.

The interesting thing is that with four more SB -- four -- Justin would have had 12 points. 

With four fewer -- four -- he would have had 8 points.

Efficiency is the key. Justin had 11 points in SO. The team ahead of him was 59 whiffs ahead of him. The team behind him was 7 whiffs behind him. The next team was 8 whiffs behind. The next team (Tim) was 12 whiffs behind.

With his 22nd pick, Justin added Cameron Maybin (15 SB). With his 23rd, he added Adam Wainwright (161 S0).

Well played.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 5

I'm not sure what year next week's contest is, but in two weeks we have 1947. Whoo hoo.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 4

Once again I failed to close. The key to these drafts is utter efficiency. Punting a category or two from the get-go is essential. You do not want to be buying saves if you're going to finish last in saves. You don't want to take a .300 hitter if you're punting BA. My plan was to dump wins and strikeouts again. I figured with the new minimum innings rule if I got out in front anybody else trying it would back off.

My plan was to load up on hitting in the early rounds, taking one high innings starter and one closer, then adding five hitting categories focusing on the highest-ranked infielders I could find. In 2016 the hitting value at every position but catcher was equal to the outfielders. It worked fine. I was able to get into the catcher run in round 5-6, when five straight catchers went off the board, leaving teams that didn't get in with slim pickings. 

As things progressed I bounced between ninth and third as we cycled through rounds. I picked up a second closer, third pitcher in the 10th. I think I made a mistake in the 11th. I wanted Chris Devenski, Alex had pointed him out, to gain good innings, and when I made the pick there were groans all around. If I'd waited I wouldn't have gotten him. With the next four picks, all hitters, I started hovering near the top, my position strengthening. In the 17th Dexter Fowler propelled me into the lead, and I stayed there for a bit. I was feeling great.

But taking Devenski cost me an opportunity to take a bigger banger than was available later. It probably wasn't fatal, Devenski fit my profile, but it turned out I had other needs.

But now I had five pitcher slots to fill and one hitter slot. And I needed 500 innings. As we moved forward I did a decent job of adding pitchers but I saw my team drop from top 3 in HR and RBI to last in both. There was no way to stanch the flow. I needed a CI and the best available in the 17th was the same one who was there in the 21st, Danny Valencia. Not enough.

The tale of the standings shows that my early commitment to hitters came with lots of BA, and other teams had lots of batting average then. So while it looked competitive, when other teams were adding bad average hitters with power later my batting average advantage rose in comparison, giving me no additional points, and all the "money" I spent on HR and RBI was wasted. Very disappointing.

As discussed previously, my formula overvalues batting average. Even when I discount its value by 50 percent the high BA guys are too high. I was aware of this and after taking Daniel Murphy to start I didn't try to buy BA particularly, but my list definitely hurt me. The issue has to do with the retro stats. Those high batting averages are very valuable, but if you have too many of them you're being inefficient. In a prospective draft you damp down BA expectations by virtue of projections, which move always toward the mean. Retrospective BAs come without risk, except of having too many high ones. Next time I will make my rankings without any value to BA. 

I have stubbornly not tried to figure out draft targets, figuring I can play the draft dynamics, but in each of these I thought I had enough of something only to find out that I did not. That was a function of misreading the draft room, or really not anticipating what the values would be to finish in each category. 

Justin Mason said he went in thinking he would dump BA and SB, but he pivoted, made great choices down the wire, sacrificed a bunch of ERA points for Wins and Ks, and won strongly, if not really overwhelmingly. 

I've made the proposal that we add an 11th category, time elapsed, to help reward those who make quicker choices. It's a programming challenge, but it would be nice to get it done in 3 1/2 instead of 4 1/2 hours, but otherwise this is a great game. Interestingly, since everyone knew the player pool well, there was a lot more player banter than there was for some of the other drafts. A fun time, if a disappointing one.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jun 4

I'm still being stubborn about things and trying to find a way to blow off ERA and WHIP, max out in Wins, K's, and Saves with a solid offense. I'm like the little engine that could. I think I can, I think I can, I think I can......or I'm simply working hard to prove that I know the definition of insanity? Either way, I'm having fun with it!

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Jun 4

I knew it Howard... you had seen the movie.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 4

And the winner is... Justin.

Punted batting average.

It's pretty well established you have to punt something. There have been multiple contests now and I'm pretty sure no one besides Jeff, who won the first one, hasn't punted one or more categories, either as a plan from the beginning or as an adjustment mid-game.

Peter's offense faded and he finished sixth. Selecting Colby Lewis with his last pick, he had 901.2 IP.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 4

Looks like he ended up punting 4 categories?

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Jun 4

Nearing the end of Round 12, Peter's in good shape. Six points off the lead, once again dumping wins and Ks, but this time with a 900 IP minimum. With four pitchers (one starter) he has 463. He has 11 points each in ERA and WHIP, a mere six points in saves; all of these will improve as he ekes out 437 IP with five more pitchers. His offense is solid, with good contributions from scarce positions. Three outfield slots and a corner base open.

It's not a lock -- it's never a lock in this game -- but he's in good shape.

You really should watch the last four rounds, which should start in about 40 minutes. I mean, you've already seen that movie before. Admit it.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 4

XFLers are retrodrafting right now a season that is in our stat scan: 2016. Just starting the seventh round. Tim's about to pick.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ROppTbv72EmcNa2zhP2KN4P514HLS4XpbcaQxfZkHXc/edit#gid=0

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 4