Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

On the Roto bookkeeping point... one year I made similar calculations in my home keeper league where Texpope and DropDeadFred also participate.  Then I redid them post draft, both times using AP4 values versus keeper salary or draft price, since we were 4x4 at the time. 

Sure enough, the team that entered an exited the with the most stored value, north of $100 excess value if I recall correctly, was very strong, and finished 2nd overall.  And the eventual winner, who had about $80 excess value exiting the draft, won via some savvy and lucky FA acquisitions and trades that year.

Other than in Doubt Wars, you cannot often win on draft day.  But you CAN lose on draft day.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX

So I guess this is the year to get my formulas perfect. I mean, it's not like I don't have time.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

When the Dodgers moved out west I switched to being a Cardinals fan, so the two seasons I would pick would be 1964 and 1967.

If you are looking for a recently published book to read that immerses you completely in someone else's troubles and offers hope, I'd suggest Writers and Artists by Lily King.

Alex Patton Alex

Loving Baseball In The Time of Coronavirus

Too soon I’m fully engaged with E.B. White in his One Man’s Meat, written when he was staring into the abyss, yet was too old to serve while the World around him marched into WWII. Being unable to move to a salt water farm in Maine like E.B., more's the pity, and in lieu of my go-to palliative for all these years past I’ve decided to occasionally play a game of APBA dice baseball at the end of the most trying days. I know. I know. Fiddling while Rome burns. Still, how to lift my spirits?

I was all set to pull the trigger on a used set of all 916 MLB players for the 1980 season, the summer when my first son was born, when I hesitated. I was in short pants the last time I played the board game. Slim chance of making another purchase any time soon and surprisingly there are so many different seasons to choose from. Looks like any and every season is out there. Maybe I should pick the cards that contain the first season I played fantasy baseball or go further back in my memories, some fuzzy, some not so much- Ted Williams bidding adieu in 1960 or Mickey Mantle’s 1956 Triple Crown season or Yastrzemski’s in 1967 or Koufaz striking out 382 in 1965 or Gibson’s subsequent mound lowering domination of the 1968 season? Which season? I’m frozen with indecision. To pick one and only one till June or probably longer. Uhhhhhh. Anyone care to suggest a worthy candidate? And why?

James Morgan jem1776

Being able to replace a piece that breaks is as valuable as adding a new piece. Only one keeps you out of the basement, the other raises you up to the top. If duplicated enough times the same year.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

To Alex's point:  my winning team scratched $50 in draft profit, plus reserves Shawn Kelley and Brian Goodwin, plus free loot claims Yordan Alvarez, Urshela, and Liam Hendriks, though the last was replacing Treinen, so maybe a wash.

Mike Landau ML-

In all these years, I don't think the bookeeping has changed. To be a contender, one way or another you have to wrestle $60 in profits out of the team you paid for. And then you need to get free loot from your reserve list and FAAB claims. And almost always, you need to make at least one trade to plug the gaps.

I haven't toted up what my draft roster was worth last year in the American Dreams but I hit the jackpot with free loot: Bo Bichette and Yordan Alvarez were on my seven-player reserve list and I claimed Hansel Robles for nothing in late April. Needed to get another closer at the trade deadline and failed. Finished second by a point and a half. 

Alex Patton Alex

Bill James recently said, "In modern baseball you have to have about 16 players having quality seasons to win your division, including three or four guys who are truly outstanding.   You can be in all different positions before you get there.   You might have 8 guys who are pretty good, 1 guy who is truly outstanding, and you might finish 75-87 or something.   You add one really good player, gets you to 9 and 2, that probably just makes you a .500 team, but then if, at the same time, you find a couple of junk-heap relievers who come through with good seasons, a couple of surprise players like Urshela was last year or a guy having a career year like Christian Vazquez did last year, you can vault forward in the standings.   But if you're adding one good player a year, you won't make any progress at all because you're also going to have guys who get hurt and guys who get old and guys who just don't have good seasons.   Talking about one good player turning the team around. . .I just don't see it."

How about in s standard, deep Roto League in Stage Four: How many good players would it take to win the League? How would we measure good? Performance over Auction Day Par? Does it still boil down to a bottom line profit of $60 or so at the end of Auction Day to be a contender? How many good players is that? Can a single player make enough of an impact?

James Morgan jem1776

MLB has announced it will follow the CDC's guidelines for no gathering of 50 or more people for the next eight weeks and has postponed the season until that restriction is lifted, meaning June baseball is the earliest.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 16

Tout Wars NL was yesterday. I am back in after years in H2H and Mixed Draft. Using the Fantrax auction software went surprisingly smoothly, except that after each winning bid an announcer says something like A winner to the man with the raised hand. You really wanted him! or Gone, to the lady in the front row! This isn't charming once and after 276 players it is deadening.

I started with Acuna $44, Albies $27 and Buehler $30, then added Arenado $35, Will the catcher Smith $14 and Wilson Ramos $13. This was three more $30+ players than I intended to buy, but I think that Acuna and Buehler are market-price with upside and the others are soft (Arenado is not if he's traded, but will he be?).

Spending so much money meant being clever. That meant loading my outfield with Puig ($5), Carlson ($8) and Inciarte ($6). If none of those gambles works out I'm in trouble, but if one of them actually plays it will pay for all three. In retrospect I should have stopped on Carlson after my $6 bid was raised, there were better buys later, but I have a hunch (even if we have to wait til July to see it play out).

On the pitching side I backed up Buehler with Folty ($12), Archer ($5) and Lester ($2), with Iglesias ($13) and Wade Davis ($2) as closers. I thought my bid was $12 on Iglesias, but if you press the button just after another person bumps the bid you bump again. 

The shape of the auction, it appeared, was soft prices early, an expensive middle and bargains late, a little bit different than the AL league's big bidding early on Saturday. But there were exceptions all over the place. I know that if Yelich came out first I would have had him.

You can see the results here. Remember it's OBP instead of BA.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 16