Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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In all these years, I don't think the bookeeping has changed. To be a contender, one way or another you have to wrestle $60 in profits out of the team you paid for. And then you need to get free loot from your reserve list and FAAB claims. And almost always, you need to make at least one trade to plug the gaps.

I haven't toted up what my draft roster was worth last year in the American Dreams but I hit the jackpot with free loot: Bo Bichette and Yordan Alvarez were on my seven-player reserve list and I claimed Hansel Robles for nothing in late April. Needed to get another closer at the trade deadline and failed. Finished second by a point and a half. 

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 20 '20

Bill James recently said, "In modern baseball you have to have about 16 players having quality seasons to win your division, including three or four guys who are truly outstanding.   You can be in all different positions before you get there.   You might have 8 guys who are pretty good, 1 guy who is truly outstanding, and you might finish 75-87 or something.   You add one really good player, gets you to 9 and 2, that probably just makes you a .500 team, but then if, at the same time, you find a couple of junk-heap relievers who come through with good seasons, a couple of surprise players like Urshela was last year or a guy having a career year like Christian Vazquez did last year, you can vault forward in the standings.   But if you're adding one good player a year, you won't make any progress at all because you're also going to have guys who get hurt and guys who get old and guys who just don't have good seasons.   Talking about one good player turning the team around. . .I just don't see it."

How about in s standard, deep Roto League in Stage Four: How many good players would it take to win the League? How would we measure good? Performance over Auction Day Par? Does it still boil down to a bottom line profit of $60 or so at the end of Auction Day to be a contender? How many good players is that? Can a single player make enough of an impact?

James Morgan jem1776
Mar 20 '20

MLB has announced it will follow the CDC's guidelines for no gathering of 50 or more people for the next eight weeks and has postponed the season until that restriction is lifted, meaning June baseball is the earliest.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 16 '20

Tout Wars NL was yesterday. I am back in after years in H2H and Mixed Draft. Using the Fantrax auction software went surprisingly smoothly, except that after each winning bid an announcer says something like A winner to the man with the raised hand. You really wanted him! or Gone, to the lady in the front row! This isn't charming once and after 276 players it is deadening.

I started with Acuna $44, Albies $27 and Buehler $30, then added Arenado $35, Will the catcher Smith $14 and Wilson Ramos $13. This was three more $30+ players than I intended to buy, but I think that Acuna and Buehler are market-price with upside and the others are soft (Arenado is not if he's traded, but will he be?).

Spending so much money meant being clever. That meant loading my outfield with Puig ($5), Carlson ($8) and Inciarte ($6). If none of those gambles works out I'm in trouble, but if one of them actually plays it will pay for all three. In retrospect I should have stopped on Carlson after my $6 bid was raised, there were better buys later, but I have a hunch (even if we have to wait til July to see it play out).

On the pitching side I backed up Buehler with Folty ($12), Archer ($5) and Lester ($2), with Iglesias ($13) and Wade Davis ($2) as closers. I thought my bid was $12 on Iglesias, but if you press the button just after another person bumps the bid you bump again. 

The shape of the auction, it appeared, was soft prices early, an expensive middle and bargains late, a little bit different than the AL league's big bidding early on Saturday. But there were exceptions all over the place. I know that if Yelich came out first I would have had him.

You can see the results here. Remember it's OBP instead of BA.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 16 '20

After a year off, I'm trying to figure out how to run my formulas and manually creating a player pool for a March 31st onroto draft.

So far my three leagues are split: One is draft early (something to do, and we can use Roster Resource rosters (I favor this), Second is delay until the new opening day, Third is still in flux, but people aren't responding to votes/questinos because of everything else.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 16 '20

Me, too, Eugene. Found myself today doing some endgame strategies -- in mid-March. 

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()
Mar 16 '20

It's been rare in recent years that I finished pricing so early.  Boo on me.  This is the one year I could have used something to do these next couple weeks.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 15 '20

At first glance, details on the Ax appear invisible behind the dreaded paywall.  But with the free "basic" subscription, the article magically becomes viewable. The trouble is that probably very few people are willing to even go to the trouble of finding this out.

My free advice to Mike G. and others at BP is to not set the damn paywall blocker up to block your "pitch" on products like this, which looks very interesting to us dynasty league owners.

As I've said here before, I don't mind paying for useful online content or tools (I pay for the Guide, Patton&Co, the Athletic, Fantistics, etc.) but it is just too annoying to deal with a paywall or even a signup process at EVERY site I may want to visit now and then.  Baseball America is officially dead to me ever since they put their Top 100 prospects list behind a paywall.  The list, not the analysis.  I still don't understand that decision - I have to be in their prime customer subscription demographic, but one dumb decision on their part has turned me completely off to them.

OK, I'll get off my soap box.  There are some kids on my lawn that I need to chase off.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Mar 1 '20

A new tool at BP ... The Ax

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Feb 29 '20

That's our move -- and every time someone nominates a guy who's off our board, we're thrilled.  Except when it turns out they're right, and we're wrong.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Feb 29 '20