Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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What were the "denominators" for 2017 NL (used to translate stats to $)?

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Mar 27 '18

Wow, he spent more on hitting than pitching!  Likely headed for 1-1-1-1-1-12-12-12-12-12-65, or something close to it.  Can he trade in LABR?

Brian Edholm SABR-Rattlers
Mar 5 '18

The guy from Yahoo got a text from his partner right before the draft:
"Get one of Kershaw, Syndergaard, Strasburg, Jansen"
His iPhone auto-corrected 'one of' to 'all of'.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Mar 5 '18

Here is the link for LABR NL only.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 5 '18

Gene,  The AB/IP thing is because the off the shelf projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, etc.) project a perfect world.  Guys who will spend 80% of the season in the minors are projected for a full season in the majors.  If I were to allow them to have 550 ABs, it would give them a value that is not real.  For platoon players and bench players who haven't established a 3 year rolling average of fewer ABs it's necessary too.  For full-time players in the majors there isn't much of an adjustment, if at all, except for rounding.  I don't like a projection for 571 ABs.  Seems too precise.  

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 26 '18

WShapiro:  Luck is luck, nothing you can do about that.  I guess if you went back and tried to identify the biggest profit makers over a period of years, some pattern might emerge . . . but your other point -- being contrarian as how to survive an auction -- is key.   We call that, "finding our own corner."   You can't get into a bidding war for every guy you want -- going a buck or two over on your planned price on all of your key players is a path to destruction.  I work HARD at the sub-$10 guys, because the price you pay for error is less, and it gives you more margin for things to go well.  

Mike Dean TMU2009
Feb 26 '18

It would be interesting to do a study on these 'March risers' over time. My gut tells me that they are not a good value, even though everyone is seemingly on board. We bid on them at the height of the frenzy, before the rational pendulum has swung back.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Feb 26 '18

Mike and WShapiro, I agree with both of you and that's what I try to do: exploit the differences between my valuations and the crowd's. Of course it's not quite that simple - often the crowd is right, and always they deserve consideration. Related topic: it fascinates me how, every year, certain players fly up the board as draft day approaches. Last year the poster boys were Jonathan Villar and Trevor Story, who both made it into the second round. This year it's too early to tell yet, but Byron Buxton has all the earmarks.

Alex, I don't think splitting us into anything is going to tell us anything. The value comes from the player not the slot. Aside from the structural edge in picking first, or should I say despite the structural edge in picking first, there has never been any evidence that one draft slot is better than any other.

What I think is different this year is the extent of the conformity, and if it's true in drafts it will be true in auctions too. Not just the first few rounds, but for 200 players and more it seems the boundaries are more rigidly fixed. And this HAS to be wrong. All our knowledge tells us that no draft or auction can even come close to predicting the distribution of a league's worth of stats. So the more predictable they are, the easier it should be to exploit the edges that we all think we have, auction or draft. Stage Four is thus thrust upon us.

Eugene, I agree that there are always surprises when you formalize, not to mention when you dive into all the wondrous new data. But even you are using your gut when you add "my own AB/IP factor." I can only warn you it's a slippery slope.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
Feb 26 '18

That's an argument for drafting/auctioning early. But that obviously leads to other random things. Brent Honeywell is no longer a prospect. Dang.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 26 '18

And I find by late March, an overwhelming consensus on player
evaluations (even at this site and in Rotoman's book). Any blinding
insight in mid-March tends to become the conventional wisdom by the end
of spring training.

Well said. I can't remember all the times over the years that I've targeted a player in early March only to watch his price soar by late March so that I can't get him.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Feb 26 '18