Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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I think you're making Seadogs question easier than it's meant to be ... I think he's asking this ... given a player with projected stats and league inflation that project to be worth $21, and other owners who you project will pay $27 for, do you keep said player at $24?

I believe what PK says, "such precision isn't always obvious" ...

Is the player young and you think he's got upside?

Is the team the player on projected to do well?

Does the player have health risks?

My bottom line: if I really believe he'll go for $27 and only earn $21, I let someone else make that mistake ... ie. I cut him ... AND ... the reality is ... I rarely "really believe" such a thing ... so ... if I like said player (ex. because he's young and got upside, or he's on a team that I want shares in, or is / isn't coming off an injury that I think is / isn't significant, etc), then I keep him, else I cut him.

In other words, I think the question boils down to ... how wide does the spread have to be before it dominates the decision?  In this scenario, the spread is only 3 (ie. I can keep him for just 3 over what my #s project him to earn) ... that's not enough to make the decision cut & dried ... so what is?  I dunno ... too many factors ... so it's case by case :-)

That process has served me well in my home league ... not so much in PCL ... YMMV ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Sep 10

If we're talking about 12 team, AL or NL only with a reasonable amount of keepers, inflation for hitters generally runs between 25% and 40%.

jeff merk jeffamerk
Sep 10

If you think a player will earn $21, but you have them at $24, and you
think they will go for $27 in your auction. Do you keep them or not?

How much will $21 earnings (for any player) cost you in the auction? If you think it's $27, then you keep him at $24.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Sep 10

Howard, I did exactly what you're talking about this year with Bregman. Kept him at 25, even though I thought he might not earn that. What I did know is he'd cost much more than 25 if I let him go, and I didn't want to give someone else the satisfaction of getting a $35 year from Bregman for a mere $29.

Then I traded him to Rotoman in a fire sale. He's getting the satisfaction while I watch Mookie Betts come back to earth.

Alex Patton Alex
Sep 10

Yes, trade to the guy who would pay $27. But such precision isn't always obvious.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Sep 10

You have to try to trade him ... if you can't, you have to cut him ... otherwise, you don't really believe he will earn $21 ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Sep 10

So, an age old question to bring up long before emotions become involved in the spring:

If you think a player will earn $21, but you have them at $24, and you think they will go for $27 in your auction. Do you keep them or not?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Sep 10

More simply ... GIGO

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Jul 27

From a blog post on stocks I was reading comes insight that sums up why I think things go wrong in roto:

  • That being said, building a robust portfolio optimization engine requires a diligent focus on estimation risk. Estimation risk is the risk that the inputs to the portfolio optimization process (i.e. expected returns, volatilities, correlations) are imprecisely estimated by sampling from the historical data, leading to suboptimal allocations.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jul 27

With few protections allowed in my league and unlimited length to contracts, it makes dumping especially complicated.  Someone asked for Gleyber Torres from me (before his injury).  His offer was Trout. Essentially, he would have been trading me 1/2 year of Trout for 3 1/2 years of Gleyber Torres, because I'm planning to sign him for 3 years at $15.  That's just silly.  Granted I'm in 5th with a clear shot at 3rd, but that's not enough.  I also remember the deal of Trout and two marginal upgrades for Francisco Lindor.  Lindor almost outhit Trout down the stretch and was signed for three years.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jul 6