Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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baseballhq.com sez ... "Ships in mid-December"

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Nov 26

Great! That must mean mine is in the mail.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 26

I don't get it every year, but today's only Cyber Monday deal of 19% off persuaded me to order the Baseball Forecaster directly from Baseball HQ

 https://www.baseballhq.com/cyber-monday-19

John Thomas Roll2
Nov 26

I second what Howard says.

And this masochist came to the same surprising conclusion. The influx of stars to the NL didn't have the results that I expected in terms of "free loot."

Just one example:

In the PCL, which keeps counting the stats of players traded to the AL (thank you, Brad Hand), the 12 draft rosters had a combined home run total of 2221. In the final stats, the league home run total is 2464.

A gain of 243 (LynchMob alone gained 87) -- which is a lot, right?

In the ADL, a self-flagellating league that doesn't count the stats of players traded to the NL, the 12 draft rosters added up to 2343 home runs. A total that does not include the homers Manny Machado's hit for the Dodgers, nor does it Brian Dozier's.

And what, pray tell, was the final home run total in the ADL?

2699.

A gain of 356.

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 12

You're not alone, MikeG! :-)  "Patton And Co - home for roto maso's" :-)

THANKS for the work/writing you do at BP!  And for the thoughts you share with us here.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Oct 11

Started putting together my retrospective valuations for AL and NL-only for my series of BP articles in November. 

One change I made this year is I bit the bullet and included the stats of players traded over to the "other" league as part of the valuation calculation...as well as part of the overall value of the player.

For example, Andrew McCutchen earned $17 in NL-only using only his Giants stats. He earned $20 in NL-only if you use his combined Giants and Yankees stats. This is what both LABR and Tout allow, and it makes more sense (to me, at least) to reflect this in the final accounting.

The impact of including these migratory stats in the draft pool is surprisingly marginal. Some of the top hitters and pitchers dropped by $1. Otherwise, nearly everything remained intact.

It just didn't make sense to me to  keep say "Andrew McCutchen earned $17 in NL-only and lost me $7 in LABR" when in reality I got to keep him in LABR all year and he put up $20 worth of stats. 

A note for masochists to be sure, assuming there are any of us left.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Oct 11

Thanks, Eugene. I do think that someone like my Ozuna question is for filling out my last few keepers more than a base and I agree that the high SB guys are going to get kept these days if they are close to the right price.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Sep 11

There are a lot of background questions that have to be answered first.  Is he your last potential keeper on your roster, filling your last keeper spot?  What savings do you have from your other keepers?  Does he fit a particular need that cannot be met in the auction?  For example - let's say you've got a guy who steals 30 bases.  All of the guys who steal 25+ will be kept, but you think his value is only $21.  Will the 30 steals move the needle for you in the category or is it just enough to make you a respectable 11th place?

These are all factors that cannot be considered in a vacuum.

My thought is that guys in the middle $15-24 are not the guys I want to spend on before the auction begins.  They are complementary pieces, not roster anchors.  I'd rather spend $45 as a keeper on a guy who's going to earn $35 (same inflation percentage), because that $35 guy has a scarcer set of skills and consolidated production.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Sep 11

I guess I look at it like this: Say you don't own Ozuna, and you go into the auction needing an OF that will earn around $21. Given inflation, what do you expect to pay for that $21 OF?

If you think getting that $21 earner is going to cost $27 given the inflation and what you know about the PCL, then probably keep him. If you think he'll cost $24, then it's a more difficult decision. I think there is a dollar value to having an available spot pre-auction, but that's more feeling than math.

I looked and I'll have several similar decisions next spring, and I'm pretty sure it'll come down to whether I have a good feeling about the player.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Sep 11

So let's put names on my example.

I own Marcell Ozuna at 24.
I expect him to earn 21 in 2019.
I expect him to go for 27 if he's tossed into the auction.

Given those numbers, is he a keeper or a cut.

This is in PCL (12 team NL only).

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Sep 11