Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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If you're new here and are wondering what the pursuit of Stage Four looks like, here's where to go.

https://www.pattonandco.com/player/RickPorcello/2017/2

It's an advertisement for ourselves, sure, but there's even a plug for John Benson.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 17 '17

Looking at the LABR results, I'm less sure that CBS was as much of a variant as people were saying it is.

The pitching prices in LABR were lower, especially in the NL. But overall, there weren't that many hiccups. LABR was closer to CBS than to historical LABR prices. And that's not a weak group of fantasy managers.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 7 '17

I posted the following under Buxton nine days ago, trying to answer the reasonable question, What are the other three stages?

Short version.

Stage One. Newcomers to old-fashioned Rotisserie
baseball wildly overpay in the early rounds for the star players and
whoever didn't cleans up from the middle rounds all the way to the end,
when they gather in rooks that nobody else has heard of.

Stage One doesn't exist anymore:

Stage Two: People are very careful about their money, hold it until the end, and then spend it in wild battles for the rooks.

Except in the experts' leagues, Stage Two has also disappeared.

Stage Three: Everybody know everything. It's a daylong grind. Twelve owners buy competitive teams. Even if you try
to buy a bad team, as long as you spend all your money, you've got a
competitive team. Because the 11 other teams are competitive.

The more skilled the players are, the more it becomes a game of luck.

Which
is a major reason why old-fashioned Rotisserie leagues themselves are
disappearing. Why go through a daylong grind when you can assemble your
team in an hour in a snake draft and have just as much fun during the
season with the same (bad) odds of success?

Unless you're a masochist. Which would describe, I imagine, most of us here.

Many good posts in the Buxton thread, exploring this further.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 3 '17

Looking down to Eugene's discussion on the CBS outfielder prices, we have the topper on Gordon, and $9 would thrill me.

Number of starters?  Generally, 5-6 (in 4x4).  We have short reserve lists (3), but not uncommon for 2 out of the 3 to be starters.  After the starters and the (hopefully) stopper, the other two spots are more likely to be risky plays (potential stoppers or starters), that (if they blow up) can be filled (temporarily or otherwise) from the reserve guys.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Mar 1 '17

Yes. 10 man reserve/minor league roster.  Minor league slots are valueable (and you can use all 10) because the contract doesn't age until the player is up in the bigs prior to September.

I tend to pick up one ML Hitter in the reserve, 3 ML pitchers, and then 6 minor leaguers.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 1 '17

Can I reserve guys freely? 

In leagues where I can stream pitchers, I'll buy six or seven and use one or two of my reserve slots to stream pitchers in and out all year long.

In old school leagues like my home league and LABR, I'm not carrying more than 5 starting pitchers on my roster, and may carry only four depending on how my team shakes out.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 1 '17

How do people feel about the number of starters to buy at auction?

Assuming one goes for 2 closers, do you pick 7 starters even though the bottom end are more risky?

Or do we pick the boring middle guys like Siegrist/Blanton who tend to earn positive money for $1?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 1 '17

To expand on the point I was making below.

It used to be easy to swoop in and buy a balanced team of hitters where you pulled in a $3-4 perceived profit on every hitter. Even if a couple of the boring guys stunk, it didn't matter because almost no one wanted those guys.

Over time, more and more fantasy managers started pushing the boring guys toward par. They never quite got to par, so it was (and is) still possible to build a team of boring players (like the ones Eugene mentions below) not at those absurd CBS prices but at prices that are anywhere from $2-5 under the players' true ceiling.

The problem is that you do want to bake some money in for upside. Byron Buxton is risky AF and the $15 the PFM recommends for him is a sensible bid. But there is a chance - even if it's an outside chance - that he earns $25. 

It's easy to know what to do in Stage One leagues (like CBS AL) that chase the stars and ignore the boring everyday guys. The challenge comes in leagues where the stars are reasonably priced. You can win with a team of boring veterans. But nearly everyone else is going to have some of those veterans on their teams too, and one of those guys is going to "luck" out and get the $25 version of Buxton or the $25 version of Gurriel or the $30 version of Bregman. We know better than to chase these guys to those prices, but we also know that some of the younger guys with upside will offer this kind of payoff. 

Keeper leagues make it even more difficult, because we know that a $9 Alex Gordon isn't going to get much in trade for a team looking at 2018, whereas a $17 Byron Buxton could if he plays well this year.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 26 '17

Sure, although in the case of every one of these guys, there's no way I'm paying the par price. Most of my bids for the upcoming LABR AL auction are somewhere between those low, low CBS prices and that "$10 profit"

Mike Gianella MikeG
Feb 26 '17

Speaking of boring players, there is no way that starting outfielders would go for some of the prices that I just reviewed in CBS.

Alex Gordon $9

Reddick $8

Pillar $8

Melky $6

Souza $6

Naquin $5

Hyun Soo Kim $4

Rasmus $1

Melvin Upton $1

Chisenhall $1

Aoki $1

While I don't know how much these guys will go for in my league, I would bet that the vast majority are at least +$5.  And, yes, that money has to come from somewhere.  Maybe it all is coming from protection inflation, but my raw values for many of these guys give as much as $10 profit.


Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 26 '17