Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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I'm not sure how 40% inflation can be self-perpetuating.  Granted my league only has 5 major league keepers and inflation this year is 11% hitting 17% pitching, but 40% seems outrageous.  If everyone pays 40% over par for players this year, the odds that teams will have 12 legitimate keepers the next year seems extremely unlikely to me. Are these consistent levels that people see in leagues with 10+ keepers?  I would expect it would lead to people keeping players above par to ensure they get the player they want, thus reducing inflation.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 24 '17

Doing something similar in my 4 x 4.  Keeping Kemp at $30.  Don't think he goes for too much more at the auction, but the players I like more will be highly inflated.  We are looking at about 40% inflation for hitters.  Pitchers go close to par.

joel schreier jschri
Mar 24 '17

Turtles ... here's a thought ... that's clearly a very strong freeze list ... and your rationale for Braun is right on ... so ... who is your "last keep"?  For me, it's Flowers.  Do you like him?  Would you be OK if you threw him back and someone else got him for $3?  The benefit of throwing him back is that you have such a strong freeze list, you might be able to get someone better into that roster spot.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Mar 24 '17

My freeze list for my National League 5 X 5 is

Flowers               3

Arenado            15

Crawford            7

Russell              10

Tomas                10

Braun                 38

Syndergaard        5

Cole                    15

Gray                    5

Melancon            7

This leaves me $145 to fill out my roster.  Why am I keeping an overpriced Braun?

This league has about 30% inflation on the top hitters.  The top hitters available this year are Goldschmidt , Harper, Rizzo, Stanton, Cespedes. & Cargo.  Goldschmidt ( $55 last year ) Harper and Rizzo will break $40 and Stanton, Cespedes, & Cargo will be in the high $30s.  I decided I liked Braun at $38 better than Stanton, Cargo, & Cespedes.  I am not willing to go to $50 for Goldschmidt or $43-$45 for Harper and Rizzo.  So instead of throwing Braun back which would give me $183 to spend I kept him.  I am anticipating the market guessing Braun at $38 would be a decent buy compared to the other available top hitters.  This is an example of dealing with league tendencies and inflation.  We also have 10 minor leaguers and most of my roster (Arenado, Russell, Tomas, Syndergaard, Cole, & Gray) came up as minor leaguers and I have a good stable of minor leaguers still on my farm.  I am willing to overspend on Braun to get production but I might not be overspending as he could go for more at the auction.  Any thoughts or observations about this approach would be appreciated.


Tom Barnes Turtles
Mar 23 '17

My colleague Jeff Quinton picks up where I left off at Roto Think Tank and goes beyond with great analysis of the thought processes behind decision making in fantasy baseball.

We recorded a podcast on auction dynamics earlier this week and Jeff augmented this with a terrific article (behind the paywall). There is a lot of good stuff here, but Jeff makes a point about adjusting our prices when it comes to new information that almost seems like he's been listening to our conversations here at Patton & Co. all along.

changes in context (injuries, demotions, etc.) certainly often warrant significant changes in our valuations for individual players; however, hunches, analyses, spring training performances, are more likely to cause us to make unwarranted significant changes to our valuations for individual players. And, when they are warranted, they are probably warranted for an entire set of players.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 23 '17

Thanks so much to you both.  I hadn't seen that Fangraphs added ATC.  The explanation thread and associated comments were illuminating.  Thanks!

Eric Mulkowsky mulkowsky
Mar 20 '17

The Zeile combined forecast at Fantasypros.com is free. You do have to pay to choose your sources, but my experience in the past was that once you start aggregating it's all good.

The explanation of what is weighted in ATC, and especially the examples, don't make much sense to me, so I'll withhold judgement for now. Explanation here, if you want to try to explain it.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 19 '17

ATC on Fangraphs seems to be a weighted average of the major public projection systems. I have found it useful in my draft preparation. 

Walter Shapiro WShapiro
Mar 18 '17

Anyone know a good source for consensus projections?  Fantasy Pros seems to have put more of their stuff behind the paywall this year.

Eric Mulkowsky mulkowsky
Mar 18 '17

In a pricing discussion with a leaguemate of mine today, we were discussing possible draft bargains.  His response of why there really aren't bargains, "The league is painfully efficient."

I think that sums up Stage 3 in a nutshell.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 17 '17