Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

I successfully used a system I called "the 9's" for a couple of years before the owners caught on to it.  When players were bid up I tried to be the one who would reach 9, 19, 29, or 39 before the others.  Once you reach those numbers owners were reluctant to break the 10, 20, 30, 40 barrier so my roster would end up with a lot of contracts that ended in 9.  When it worked I was able to avoid bidding wars.  I would also use a jump bid to reach the 9 level.  I still use it occasionally but the other owners usually spot it and force me to go higher than 9 to get the player.

Tom Barnes Turtles
Mar 25 '17

We have an owner who will sometimes say, "If you let him go, I'll do you a favor later."  Always laughter.  Sometimes a favor. 

Mike Landau ML-
Mar 25 '17

I had a really interesting owner in a league about 20 years ago.  He would bid "$27 and that's my final offer."  When someone said "$28" he would wait until going twice and then say "$29."  The first year he did this the league erupted in laughter.  Of course he got the player.  It also helped that he announced the same thing earlier in the auction and it was his true final offer because he got the player at that price or did not bid again.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 25 '17

Let's say the bidding on a certain player is at $26, and you have him at $28/$29 on your sheet, and you're hoping to get him at $27.

For some reason, we believe that if we wait until the very last moment, the rest of the room will think that your $27 is the absolute high ANYONE is willing to go on that player. Chances are, another owner was also waiting until the very last moment and you just beat him to the $27 bid.

In fact, it's more logical just to bid $27 right away, so you can be the first to get to $27. If you don't get there first, then YOU have to decide if you want to go up to $28, which is right around the range most of the other owners had the player priced. So, it makes more sense to just say $27 right away, and let the other owners get squeamish at $28.

Of course none of that matters because everyone is still going to wait until 'going twice' anyway.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Mar 25 '17

A nice Stage 4-ish article by Todd Zola currently posted at Rotowire. I'd link to it directly but I nevert knoiw what's in the paid area and what's not. Here's a sample:

While on the topic of auctions, let’s hit on a few other elements of the
format. Much is made of the mind-game aspect, and I suppose in some
rooms it’s effective. However, in a room full of experienced players,
their focus will be on their team and all the other stuff is more fluff
than fact.

For example, there’s a faction of auction players that like to wait
until “going twice” then swoop in with their first bid on that player.
Sometimes, it’s the winning bid. Now they think they got the player
because of their irritating tactic, when in fact more often than not,
someone will up the bid. The times it “worked”, it didn’t work; the
person with the high bid was at their limit and no one else was
interested in topping it. I don’t know, maybe it influences an
inexperienced room. Don’t let it faze you.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 25 '17

Those rules are BEGGING for major inflation.  

Mike Dean TMU2009
Mar 24 '17

Mike, they are.  We have 3 rounds of a minor league draft followed by 4 rounds of major league reserve.  For our minor league or farm we can keep as many as we want to warehouse but it costs $10 to keep a minor leaguer and the contracts are at $5.  Because we go so deep almost all the top minor leaguers are already owned and the only way you get a good one is go for the high school or college (I got Austin Meadows and Jonathan Gray this way) or someone who came over from the National League (this is how I got Addison Russell).  I have the 1st pick after finishing 5th (top spot out of the money) and the only top minor leaguer available is Lewis Brinson who came over from the American League.  As long as he does not make roster I will take him.  If he makes roster I am screwed and probably end up with someone in the 90s from Baseball America.  FWI this is my current farm team before the draft: Meadows, Aquino, T. Clark, A. Rosario, Fedde, Toussaint, Bellinger, Garrett.

Tom Barnes Turtles
Mar 24 '17

Well, the fact that Syndergaard can be kept at $5 is one great indicator of how high inflation can be maintained. The reserve drafts in your league must be pretty interesting.

mike fenger mike
Mar 24 '17

LynchMob,  I agree that Flowers is marginal but other than Posey who will go in the $30s the available catchers are very weak.  If Flowers is back in he goes from $3 to $5.  Our 30% inflation is only on the top hitters and pitchers.  It is about 20% on the middle class and 10% or less on the single digit players.  The draft is almost pure Stage 3 hell with only a couple of cheap bargains at the very end.

Eugene, our best keepers come from the farm team (minor leaguers).  I agree you do not keep the 30% to 40% (Braun being a rare exception).  6 of my 10 came from the farm.  

Tom Barnes Turtles
Mar 24 '17

Can keep up to 15 players.  Minor leaguers are at $5 and can be kept up to three years once called up at that rate.  Last year, for example, Goldschmidt went for $57, Rizzo $50, Stanton $48, Heyward $28 . . . 

joel schreier jschri
Mar 24 '17