Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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n=96 hitting (8 seasons) 5x5 AL

Points Mean=32.5 Median 32.5 Min=5 Max=58

Pricing Mean=$179 Median=$178 Min=$123 Max=$245

Points to Pricing Correlation Pearson's r=0.293

Hitting dollars spent are more correlated by about 2:1 compared to pitching dollars.  That could be related to the high level of turnover in pitchers in every season and the high amount of pitchers available as free agents compared to hitters, which are very few.  Based upon the scatterplot, teams that spent between $185-200 had the highest rate of point success above the trend line.  Those spending below $170 tended to score fewer points than the trend line.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 29 '17

n=96 pitching (8 seasons) 5x5 AL

Points Mean=32.5 Median=33.5 Min=14 Max=57

Pricing Mean=$81.5 Median=$82 Min=$15 Max=$137

Starters Mean=$61.5 Median=$64.5 Min=$8 Max=$106

Relievers Mean=$20 Median=$18.5 Min=$0 Max=$43

Points to Pricing Correlation Pearson's r= 0.154

Points to Starter spending r=0.126

Points to Reliever spending r=0.069

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 29 '17

As I take a break for the night.  n=72.  Pitching is now up to 0.139 so that's a very large increase over only half the data again.  That $15 pitching staff in 2013 really attacked the curve.  It yielded only 15 points.  Relievers are at 0.068.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 29 '17

I'm going to double it first and then maybe go back a decade total.  As of now, I cannot find my 2007* draft sheets, so I don't have reliable draft rosters.  If I could, I would go back through 2006.  For a few years in the early half of the aughts, we were at 11 teams, so that changes everything.  I'll let you know how things go as I build my data set.

*2007 is my last Championship, so I really want to find that data.  I've been in the money 6 times in the last decade, but no 1st place finishes.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 29 '17

Not a big enough sample for sure, but your pitching results are so extreme I think it's a good idea to collect a broader sample and see what how that number moves. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 29 '17

I just ran a regression of my league's spending versus end of season points for hitting and pitching over the past 4 years.  While this is probably not a large enough sample size, it's not bad.  I'll probably go back 10 years eventually.  5x5 AL only.

Over the last 4 years (n=48) teams have spent between $135-$215 on hitting for both a mean and median of $179 (68.8%).  Those teams have scored 9-55 points on offense with a mean of 32.5 and a median of 35.8.  The correlation between dollars and points is positive, however it’s not extremely high.  Only .415.

Pitching mean is $80.9 and a median of $81.  Mean points are 32.5, but median is 30.3.  Teams have scored 14.5-57 points (this does not factor in failure to make IP minimums).  Teams have spent between $45-125.  The correlation is 0.026, meaning nearly none.  It’s just a random scatterplot of points and dollars spent.  There is no relationship between them.  Pitching points to reliever dollars spent is 0.044.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 28 '17

The home runs and strikeouts (Slyke's comment under Judge) are certainly interesting, but I'm more fascinated by something else i noticed. While it may be a historical season for home runs, it isn't a historical season for offense. In fact, it isn't even close.

If you go back to 1901, 2017 is the 17th best season ever using OPS. Twelve of the top 16 seasons were between 1994-2007, with 1930 (1st), 1929 (4th), 1925 (7th), and 1936 (16th) breaking through. 

Home runs or no, we're nowhere close to the "steroid" era. At least not yet.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Sep 28 '17

For those interested in taking an early look at 2018, Justin Mason has assembled several 15-team Mixed Slow Mocks, and the link is posted below to the one I'm partaking in. I'm drafting in the tenth slot, and have so far acquired Betts, Lindor, Benintendi, and Willson Contreras. Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale and Kluber (in that order) all disappeared off the board at the back-end of the First Round. Bellinger before Judge, followed by Hoskins, and Olson is still waiting his turn. I'm probably looking at two more bats, before jumping into the pitching with my 7th/8th picks.

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Sep 23 '17

Thanks, Mike.

carter carter GypsySoul
Aug 31 '17

A heads up to the people here who also subscribe to Baseball Prospectus: we are increasing our subscription price for the first time since 2003.

The good news for existing subscribers is that if you renew between now and October 1, you can lock in at the current price for up to two years.

the details are here.

i try not to plug BP or my work often on here. But I don't want anyone who doesn't frequently check the site in late August and September to find out about the price bump in January, when the fantasy articles for 2018 start popping up again.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Aug 30 '17