Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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That's great, but DFS is the ultimate exercise in randomness.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 26 '16

Don't get me wrong, I love sitting down at the table with human beings. It continues to amaze me how many great human beings I've come to know through roto, including many on this board.

But I find it incredibly frustrating to see my painstaking calculations destroyed by obliques, quads and hamstrings.

And I hate closers. DFS eliminates them. You know what would be great for roto? If the Yankees turned baseball on its ear by pitching Chapman, Miller & Betances 100 innings each, with actual bullpen management instead of the triple play of wasted talent that is the 7th,8th and 9th inning guy. That would really open up what has become a joke stat and make roto a better game. But I won't be betting on that.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
Mar 26 '16

DFS eliminated a lot of my player bias.

I'm a huge DJ Lemahieu fan and might overspend by a buck or two in a roto league to own him for a bit, but I'm not going to buy him in DFS just because I like him.  Now, I may buy him a lot because he plays in Colorado, but that's a different story.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Mar 26 '16

I didn't say there was NO difference. That's ridiculous. And I don't bet in Vegas.

I love Rotisserie baseball, all year long, which is what I play. I think that's the soul of the game.

Mostly for no money. Or some.

But gambling is also a part of this, and finding good gambling challenges is part of somebody's business.

And the daily game isn't armageddon. It's a game. With good gambling options, if done right.

I like the social part of playing Rotisserie baseball (or fantasy, since I'm in Tout Head to Head this year, and I'll report if it's fun or ridiculous after I've played). But the betting part is there, and inevitably changes what we know.

That matters too.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 26 '16

C'mon, Peter. There's NO difference between DFS and betting in Vegas.

They're fun. But investing in your team FOR THE SEASON is what we do here.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 26 '16

I thought the daily game was dumb, but once I started playing I discovered the appeal.

If draft day is The Best Day Ever, in DFS you draft every day you play! That's awesome!

Of course, the variance makes any day's results meaningless. And the amount of work it takes to properly set a daily lineup means that you really have to invest based on your time spent.

I took the easier way, meaning I hoped to get lucky. But the evidence is that those who tried to beat the games beat them, or rather beat the less committed bettors.

I think that there is a good case to be made for the daily game, as an extension of our yearly game, but the jackpot emphasis of DraftKings and FanDuel (and I'm pretty sure one of these separates their two words and the other doesn't, but I'm not sure which) and that crazy bid to pump up the value poisoned the well. 

Imagine, if every day was the Best Day of the Year!


Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 26 '16

I'm not sure you're not right. But in that case, go to your bookie, whose take is less.

The great thing about the confection that Okrent dreamed up is the year-long conversation between people who end up being friends. You don't get that with the dailies.

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 26 '16

Well here we go, because I think the dailies are a far better test of knowledge than full-season leagues. It's not even close. Of course anything can happen on any day, but EVERYTHING that happens to ALL your players ALL YEAR is a massive sample size, thousands of chances to evaluate the percentages correctly. You get to make every pick based on what you know, which is going to be more tomorrow than it is today. You can actually do something about injuries besides pick up Clint Barmes on the waiver wire. Sure, it's great when you spot something about 2016 that turns out to be true, and your roto team benefits. But you get that in daily too, and you also get to react to the many new realities you didn't see coming - indeed, in daily you must decide which new realities are real and which are ephemera. I'm in this for the thinking; daily is the format that demands the most and the best. So far.

Gene McCaffrey GeneM
Mar 26 '16

I'm in two leagues:

The one I run is 12 teams, 5x5 AL, $260 w/ 6 round reserve draft (one of whom must be a major league pitcher who is activated as the 10th pitcher).  Only 5 keepers plus two rookie eligible players who you didn't activate before September.  Contacts age immediately, so the first time you keep a player it's option or extension.  $100 FAAB.  Unlimited DL.  Only two major league, non-DL reserves to try to keep the free agents churning.  Salary cap of $365 including reserves.  

The other one is 12 team, 5x5 OBP AL + Washington Nationals, w 7 round reserve.  12 keepers including minor leaguers.  Traditional contract aging and extensions.  $100 FAAB.  Unlimited DL.  No salary cap.  Adding the Nationals changes the dynamics a bit, especially now that they are competitive.  I used to make an adjustment for OBP, but now I don't.  

I've been in 11 team AL 5x5 leagues and I don't like the shallower league auction dynamics.  I can't even imagine a mixed league with fewer than 24 teams. 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Mar 25 '16

That won't work. I got so sick of those damn kids in my yard all the time that I put a Trump sign up and scared them away. Kids hate Trump - he micro-aggresses their safe space or something like that.


Don't get me started on those idiotic daily leagues. I have this one guy who is in a lot of my leagues, and he's "that guy" if you know what I mean.
For the last few years, all he talks about is how great daily leagues are and how they're so much better than regular leagues. When I listen to "that guy" try to convert me with his superior knowledge on these things, I finally know what the kids mean when they say "I can't even".

Keith Prosseda andypro
Mar 25 '16