It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.
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Jan 30 '13
That said, most of those guys earned at best $2 profit, at the most marginal end of production, and depending on league rules regarding reserves they may even have been replaced prior to providing that value.
Meanwhile, the top guys are usually par at best, so it feels like borrowing from your marginal savings at the bottom to overpay at the top leaves you at par(albeit par with a low risk).
I don't know, Eugene's argument makes more sense. You visit the dollar store a couple times out of necessity, not excessively to chase stars over value.
Jan 30 '13
Chris Denorfia (earned $16)
Mike McKenry ($7)
Jerry Hairston ($6)
Brandon Crawford ($5)
Travis Ishikawa ($5)
Adam Kennedy ($3)
Austin Kearns ($3)
Charles Blackmon ($3)
Freddy Galvis ($2)
Lance Nix ($2)
Joe Mather ($2)
Bret Pill ($1)
Jesus Flores ($1)
Henry Blanco ($0)
Xavier Nady ($0)
Jeremy Hermida ($0)
Bret Hayes (-$2)
Steve Clevenger (-$2)
Aside from the $1 catchers who were close to useless (Flores, Blanco, Hayes, Clevenger), you only had a handful of bitter Pills to swallow (Pill, Nady, Hermida) for your $1 spent. And it's pretty tempting to take a chance on the upside that Denorfia, Ishikawa, Hairston, and Crawford provided (that's 4 of the 13 players who weren't $1 catchers) and have a few extra dollars to bid on the top talent.
Jan 30 '13
Until this silly Astros situation, there were 168 hitters taken in the auction and about 182 hitters in the AL (assuming 13 hitter/12 pitcher ML roster construction). Replacement level is very low. But, there were 108 pitchers taken in the auction and about 168 pitchers in the AL. Replacement level is a LOT higher. 92% of available hitters are drafted. Only 64% of available pitchers are drafted.
You can't afford to take the last hitter off the board, or probably even the last couple dozen and expect much. They are not a $1 lottery ticket. Usually they are a $1 average suck with no production otherwise. The pitchers, however, may very well be a $1 lottery ticket because of the devaluation due to the surplus talent pool. Hell, it's hard to distinguish between the 130th pitcher versus the 100th pitcher. One will be taken and one will not, but 130 could be much better when the season is over. But, on the hitter side there is no hitter 22 worse than the last taken. He doesn't exist because of hitter scarcity.
Jan 30 '13
a) If $1 guy doesn't pan out, a very good chance you can upgrade to a higher value guy through FAAB if you're paying attention
b) if you're in a protection league, a $1 guy is a nice lottery ticket, because if he shows much life and it's dumping time, you can often move him for one of those $20 guys.
Jan 30 '13
Something that is less likely to have happen with an NL only league.
In my one mixed league auction (Ottoneu, 40 man roster x 400 slots ... minor and major leaguers are auctioned), I am less tight on my projected $$$.
However, for my two NL Only teamx which are keeper leagues, I stay pretty close to my "number" which is projected-earnings*inflation-mx (based on frozen values). Since I use a multiplier, players on the top tend to go higher since their projected earnings are also higher.
Having said that, I work pretty hard not to leave money on the table (at least not $15).
So the answer is that it depends quite a bit on format.
Jan 30 '13
Then I started to read the fangraphs link ... it's a stinkin' mixed league! That ain't roto! $ABORT ...
:-)
Jan 30 '13
The author claims that there is zero justification in overpaying for stars early in the auction and that drafting for value in turn will net you the best surplus value compared to other teams and land you near the top of the standings. He states that if your prices are correct, a $39 player and a $1 player should produce the same stats as two $20 players. Commenters (sp?) were quick to point out that while getting bargains and spending your whole budget will net you the most surplus value and a great chance at winning theoretically , this doesnt usually occur in actual drafts. They stated that if you pass on the stars early, you will indeed find good bargains on the mid tiered guys but will end up overpaying for mediocre talent in the later rounds and will have trouble spending all your money, just like the author did leaving $15 dollars unspent. Do you fellows agree that overpaying for stars is a bad idea early? Or is classic stars and scrubs the way to go in general? Obviously all that can change in a heartbeat based on the dynamics of the auction but in a Stage 4 league does any of that even matter? And by looking at the results of the mock, is it possible to label what stage this draft is?
Jan 30 '13
After each draft, the other owners have thought my teams sucked. Each year, I have made it to the championship matchup (finished second by 1 HR one year, and actually tied the second year, but lost the tiebreaker).
Jan 29 '13
Jan 29 '13