Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Seems to me to be extension of Alex' old mantra of wanting to be in your own corner of the room at the auction. Sometimes you get backed into an unwanted corner though, see my PCL team for example. Although even there my DNA of position scarcity is evident (save for likely over optimistic view of Ian Stewart).
Noah Hirsch NSh58
May 3 '12
I think some people in Stage Four are looking at a lot of structural roster looks.

In one league there are three of us who try to keep a C, 1B, 2b, etc at freeze time.

Both of my leagues have several "no more than $3" catcher teams.

PCL is full of Stars / Scrubs players and my home league has one guy who just is crazy on it.

Also, a few "don't pay retail for closers" types who snag two CIWs every season and then hope that one of them is a closer by the following year.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 3 '12
You're signed up for drab ol' Election Night, Walter.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Apr 25 '12
If you're ever organizing another one -- especially in the drab days of winter after the 2012 season -- count me in.
Walter Shapiro WShapiro
Apr 25 '12
Alex and I did one of these (drafting the previous year's stats) in the mid 90s, the attempt being to see whose valuation model worked best once you took the forecasting element out of it.

We didn't get enough live drafters, and so ended up with some price lists and life auctioners, and it was very interesting, but proved nothing.

My recollection is that we did another one of these at the old askrotoman discussion board sometime in the aughts, but the results were inconclusive, because the winner adopted an extreme category, which was his privilege. We decided you would have to do it many times to figure out what the best strategy/valuations were/was.

Surprise!
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Apr 24 '12
We did it with a chartroom for auction. Not the modern software so it was very slow. I would bet 4-5 hrs using a draft website. I'd be up for it. AL right.? You could pick any year It wouldn't have to be 2011 if you didn't want.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Apr 24 '12
Wow ... THANKS for that link ... that's exactly what I was fishing for.

My first takeaway is that if you take out the uncertainty from pitching, it becomes more valuable ... therefore hitters less valuable ... therefore the results don't seem like they can apply to a normal auction ...

My 2nd takeaway is ... YOW, did it really take 9-10 hours? I guess that's too long to ask folks here if they'd be up for a redux? :-)
Howard Lynch LynchMob
Apr 24 '12
I love the back draft idea. I often wondered if you could have a league where you try to draft the best team using any season by any player ever. You could allow clones, someone could have a Babe Ruth 1922 and 1927, someone else a 21 Ruth, but in no case could the same player season be owned more than once. Snake draft as an auction would just be silly.
I know, I am certifiable.
GEOFF CRESAP SydThrift
Apr 24 '12
I did a league like this w John Hunt and baseball weekly what must have been a more than a decade ago. I came in 2nd or 3rd overall within a couple points of first and had a very close score for first In pitching without Pedro (1999 season). I was not tracking stats (pen and paper) back then. Had I taken the pitcher with the most value in era/ratio I would have won pitching outright and maybe the league too.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/bbw2/v6/bbw0618.htm
Hunt didn't understand that I said my wins were overkill and costa me the pitching crown. He reported my goal was wins.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Apr 24 '12
Has anyone ever done a back-draft?

Get 12 experienced roto players to do an auction of 2011 players/stats ... to see whose valuation formula creates the best team.

I assume you'd end up with 12 teams with pretty close totals ... what would be the differences?

Would the winner be the owner who most finely values players and gets the most "rounding value"? (ie. if a player is worth 11.5, if you get him for 11 you gain 50 cents of overall value, but if you pay 12 you lose 50 cents of overall value) ... so I could gain on the league by never paying over the real value.

Would we see a clear winner if we had one owner try stars & scrubs and one owner try to get all players in the 10-12 range (with all other owners random)?

Would this tell us if a Patton-based valuation theory is better than other valuation theories?

Could we tell if it's good to punt Saves?

Would we learn if it's better to get $1 hitters or $1 pitchers? ... or $1 catchers or $1 OFers?

Would the nomination order determine the winner?
Howard Lynch LynchMob
Apr 24 '12