Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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You're absolutely right. The fewer keepers there are, the less inflation there is, the leveler the field is... the more it's a game of luck since we're all handicapped the same.

The question then becomes, do you want rules that favor the team with the best freeze list each year -- which is achieved by dumping -- or do you want rules that favor luck?
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 11 '12
I like limited keepers because my favorite day is auction day, but when most of a team's value comes via the auction, doesn't that further mire us in Stage Four? In a wild and wooly keeper league, with dumping encouraged rather than discouraged, we're not all playing the same game.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 11 '12
Yes. That is the second slash.

I didn't get Crawford b/c I'd already gotten Gonzalez and I had to keep my money for an ace. I was price enforcing on Gonzalez but very happy with him at $35. He was the second player announced after Miguel Cabrera who had just gone for $40. My offense was stocked, so I thought, with keepers Mauer $19, Longoria $15, and Wieters $10. I felt I needed to save for an ace. My pitchers going in were Romero and Hughes each for $6.

Max 5 keepers is as close to a start over league as I've found in the past decade and that's how we've been doing it for 15 years. Our second and third years we were allowed only 2 keepers.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 11 '12
So the second slash stat is the $ value of the ZiPs projection with your own inflation add-on? Very interesting.

I can hardly think of a better example of Stage Three hell.

Even the bargains aren't bargains in reality. ZiPs doesn't like Bautista but your league merrily chases him to $36, and your league is right.

Shields yields a nice profit, but compared to your league, ZiPs doesn't know zip.

How did you not end up with Crawford? Bit of luck that.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 11 '12
I realized I stopped before a top ten.

So, here's a MikeG style (Alex book style) top 10 hitters in a table- what they Cost/ZiPS I$ for my league/Earned $5x5 without the benefit of tabs:

Top 10 most expensive hitters in my league (not kept)
Miggy 40/38/35
Crawford 40/43/15
Teixeira 39/29/23
N Cruz 37/30/20
Youkilis 37/30/15
Cano 37/30/31
Bautista 36/22/33
Ad Gonzalez 35/38/35*
Pedroia 33/31/33
Kinsler 32/30/29

top 10 most expensive starting pitchers not kept:
Felix 37/40/19
CC 37/34/25
Lester 37/33/17
Verlander 34/33/42
Weaver 34/29/33
Haren 31/32/27 *
Price 34/27/20
Danks 25/20/6
Buchholz 24/11/6
Shields 21/15/30


* I got Adrian Gonzalez and Dan Haren
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 11 '12
My inflation prices on top of ZiPs are in parens.

Miggy went for $40 (38) in my league with inflation pacing the hitters along with Carl Crawford (43). This is 5x5, so prices are lower, but I considered Gonzalez a great bargain. Teixeira went for $39 (29). Nelson Cruz $37 (30), Youkilis $37 (30), Cano $37 (30), Bautista $36 (22). Gonzalez, who I got for $35 (38). My league has a fear of NL players generally and I took advantage of that. The other top hitters weren't bargains at the end of the season either, except Bautista.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 11 '12
From what I'm seeing, if you go by ZiPs you don't come close to getting Miggy or AGon. If everybody else goes by ZiPs, you have a huge advantage if you don't.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 11 '12
Post hype or any other name, I use ZiPS projections. I know Dan and like him, but historically he's better than the other systems by a slight margin especially because Sean Smith doesn't publish anymore now that he's in-house.

Anyway, the interesting outliers versus common perception last year in 5x5 were Teixeira $24, well behind Miggy and Adrian Gonzalez at $32 each. Michael Young at $21. It liked all of the middle level shortstops, A Escobar $18, Asdrubal $17, Aybar $15, Pennington $15, Y Escobar $14, Hardy $14, Scutaro $14 - there were definitely bargains to be had there in most leagues. Not crazy about Bautista $20, but Francoeur $16, Melky $13, and Boesch $8, were mixed in there with chaff at Snider $16, Magglio $15, Drew $14. That's where Alex's intuition must come into play because they probably all could have been had below those limits. (Maybe not Snider).

But, ZiPS also had Verlander $23, after only Felix and CC, and Haren $22 5th and Buchholz at only $11. Farnsworth at $9, Benoit $8, and David Robertson and $6 have to raise eyebrows, but that's the exact thing I want out of the program. Tell me which middle relieves will pitch well and I will get them for $2-3. Farnsworth exceed my grasp at $4. I'm not crazy, but maybe I should have been.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 11 '12
My favorite Shandler saying is buy for the skills more than the stats.
van wilhoite LVW
Feb 11 '12
Liss puts it this way, which I think is close to perfect: I'm not drafting from this year's cheat sheet, I'm drafting from next year's cheat sheet.
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 11 '12