Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Wanted to jump in on the issue of dumping. As with all "advanced" leagues, it was a big problem for us as well.

Last year, we went to the following, and it seemed to work.

1. Unlimited trades until July 1.

2. From July 1 until the deadline (first Sunday in August), trades are limited to teams within 5 places in the standings. So obviously, the only teams that can prey on the bottom feeders are teams in the middle. No more of the 2nd place team making a major dump deal with the 12th place team, thereby screwing the 1st place team.

3. Three year pot. Part of winnings go to the current 1st-4th place finishers. Part of our pot goes to the cumulative three year profile winners. If you dump one year and finish say, 11th, you had better be REALLY good the other two years if you want to get a piece of the three year pot.

4. Keepers are on a bell curve. 1st place=5 keepers, 6, 7, 8....and then 7, 5, 4 for the three bottom teams.

5. For our reserve draft the following year, we go 5, 6, 7, 8 (rewarding the teams that were competitive but out of the money), then 4, 3, 2, 1, and finally, 9, 10, 11, 12.

None of them in and of themselves hampers dumping, but taken all together, it seems to discourage the really bad deals. Most teams need to creatively play for next year without completely ruining the race for the true contenders.
paul schneider badgermania
Feb 15 '12
I have punted saves in 5x5 AL for years now. I don't let it impact my values or allocation of inflation. I just don't construct my pitching staff with savers. So, I still have Mariano for $22+$I. When he goes for $27 that's fine. If he is stalled at $20 I would price enforce to my non-inflation value, just because he's the king of savers. I'm not going to do so for a $12-15 value closer.

But, I keep my roster construction hitting/pitching split the same. So, even though I'm not spending $15-25 on saves, I keep that money in pitching and spend $78-92 on pitching depending how things break. It gives me one extra solid starter than most teams. I have an ace, a real #2, and a few other solid starters. I also spend a marginal dollar more on a middle reliever i believe, so I'll go $2-3 on some non-save relievers.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Feb 15 '12
Great question Seadogs.

Me, personally, I still assign my bids the way I normally would - bid for a player, then adjust for inflation. If I am punting saves or steals, I will either de-value the closer or the speed guy or I will just make the mental note not to price enforce. If you adjust your bids too far, you will be outside the room and it can negatively impact your auction (I've done it, so I know all too well). The one caveat, of course, is that if you are punting speed, and one or two other guys are punting speed, suddenly the speed guys are really cheap. You want to leave flexibility to change strategy mid-stream if the prices dictate.

In terms of splits, that depends on your strategy...the punting of saves or speed does not necessarily make your hitting/pitching more valuable. You just need to adjust your split to fit your keepers and your strategy.
John Toczydlowski Toz
Feb 15 '12
For those who have punted SB or Saves in the past, do you change your valuation of players or just ignore the ones that would fall into those categories?

Do you modify how much you spend on hitting/pitching split (i.e. if you boot saves, do you get another stud starter or just push that money over to hitting)?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Feb 15 '12
Good discussion of "first basemen scarcity" under Votto.
Alex Patton Alex
Feb 14 '12
We use a 330 salary cap to limit dumps along with a "draft order" that favors staying competitive (5th to 12th then 4th to 1st). 15 keepers are maximum, but most teams keep 10 to 12.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
Feb 12 '12
In response to Alex...less luck.
Noah Hirsch NSh58
Feb 12 '12
The Plain Wheeler Dealer League (AL 5x5) has been a keeper league since 1991, with a max of 10. Most franchise holders have made at least a run for the title. Our mid-winter meeting battle has always been about dumping. I am on the side of curbing dumping because it tilts the playing field toward the traders and away from the annual auction.

Originally, we used the old Rot rules with A,B,C contracts, but that just made trading difficult. Then, we tried a rule where all players traded after May 1 became non-keepers. It worked so well -- trades down a bit but all even-handed except one guy who dumped in April -- that the dumpsters howled, and we changed to a mid-July deadline. Dumps returned, some reasonable, some fleecings.

I would choose a keeper league and try a few rules to discourage dumps (I like my plan of all players traded become non-keepers after a specific date), because the real problem with major dumps is that some people figure out how to do it, and others don't, becoming a annual mark. That changes the game, which doesn't have much to do with baseball.
David Molyneaux NeauxBrainr
Feb 12 '12
Early in this thread, Gene M said "Everybody knows everything, except that nobody KNOWS anything."

This is where I am at. (For those who have read Malcolm Gladwell's "What the Dog Saw," you can reference the discussion of the stock market in there which I think pertains to us as well.

FOR THE AUCTION
I've switched to groupings of players at a specific price for my auction lists. The truth is that to predict earnings of 15 for one player and 14 for someone else and to die on those prices is fairly non-sensical.

A one week injury when an NL player is set to travel to Colorado and Arizona is enough to spoil $1. Heck, even the timing of a players slumps within the season is enough to drop a dollar or two.

I think we know enough to give us ballparks of what players may earn and so that's what I stick to. I'm going to be looking at three or four different sets of projected data to help form the consensus for those groupings.

FOR THE ROTATION
I think it makes sense to stack a position (e.g. Infielders) or a team (we once had a guy who just took the Baseball America Rockies list and drafted their top rated AAA hitter then AA hitters then moved to the next best hitters park and did the same thing).

If you go positionally, then you are basing it on the KNOWN fact that there will be some rookie outfielders (for example) who break through this year.

If you go based on a team, especially if you choose a team that seems to have some weak players, then you are basing your strategy on the KNOWN fact that most teams have some rookies contribute each season. For those who still have a favorite team (roto cured me of that 20 years ago) then drafting all of your team's top Minor Leaguers seems like a two-fer draft strategy.

Both of the above also acknowledge that there are always busts and doesn't attempt to guess if Fernando Martinez will be a stud or who he is. Pick a bunch of outfielders and let God sort them out (with apologies to Arnaud-Amaury)
Kent Ostby Seadogs
Feb 12 '12
I'm in 3 leagues, one of each: The full keeper PCL, my home league with only 6 keepers, and my own league which has no keepers. I started my league 2 years ago because guys were all in keeper leagues and wanted to re-live the fun of a start up again.

My no-keeper league is by far the least challenging, but also for some reason the most fun. Go figure.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Feb 11 '12