Thread: Rotoman's Guide

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

Hey, just wanted to let everyone know that the publisher decided not to go ahead with the Guide this year. But I am writing profiles now, so I just posted at about my plans. Click to read.

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Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Dec 14 '20

Found it at Walgreen's in Orland Park - 147th and LaGrange Rd

Joe Wrobel Chepelully
Feb 5 '20

Has anyone purchased the guide magazine in downtown Chicago or in the North or Northwest Suburbs of Chicago? Location(s) would be appreciated.

Joe Wrobel Chepelully
Feb 2 '20

I have my copies of the Guide (dating back to the year Johann Santana was on the cover) stacked on my bookshelf like some used to stack National Geographics. The joy in January of seeing them on the shelf at B&N or CVS is almost equal to the time i came home from work and there was Salma Hayek standing there in a ........o nevermind.

I've scoured e-bay etc for older issues to fill in my library--but with no luck.

Jack Edward Penfold cubfever7
Jan 29 '20

Thanks for the thorough answer.

Kevin Wiley kldub4life
Jan 23 '20

Thanks! Good question, one I should probably do a better job of explaining, so here goes...

The Bid Price is based on what a player has cost in recent years, and what he's earned. Plus his age and anything I know about role changes, which in November isn't usually much. My process goes something like: Rosario is 25 years old. He cost $19 last year and earned $27. I'm willing to pay for him to repeat, with a bit extra because he might be better.

For Tatis, the story is a little different. He's just 21. He earned $22 in 334 at bats. Will he get better? Will he get more at bats? The answer to both questions might be yes, but still, there's a lot we don't know. He's super young, we don't know how he adjusts to pitchers adjusting. I'm happy to bump him up from the $10 cost of 2019, but am I ready to move him into the first two rounds? Not yet.

The projections, on the other hand, tackle different questions. They prorate what we know players have done, on the component level, and convert those numbers into a number of at bats, which we guess at.

For Rosario, he's in prime time. He's shown he can do what we thought he could. I think he could have a big year, but the projection isn't the place to express that. He is what he is.

Tatis is more challenging. He was terrific in his 334 at bats, but he got hurt. If we extend those AB and the HR/FB% out to a more or less full season, you end up with him hitting 34 home runs. My projection. That could happen, but experience tells me that more often a young hot streak doesn't extend into the sophomore season, which is why we know it as the sophomore slump. I'll probably bring those HR/RBI/Runs down a bit when I'm tweaking the projections. You still want Tatis, but you don't want him at the price the projection suggests you should pay.

That last sentence is the key one. It applies to Heaney and Hendricks. Heaney has great stuff, a bad record, and high risk. Earnings in the last five? Terrible. Hendricks has a long history of success. Nothing is guaranteed, but you want Heaney cheap for upside, because you can't be sure about him, and Hendricks you'll pay more for because he earned 8-39-14-18-19 each of the last five years. 

Ps. My Hendricks projection is much more negative for Hendricks than his past performance. That's because he's one of those guys who consistently outperforms his component stats. That is, he gets better results than you'd think he should based on his strikes, balls, hard hit, etc. So, as I get into the finer parts of projection, I'm likely to revise his stats down, to better, because history says they are. The projections for veteran players in the Guide are mostly based on the math.

Pps. Hope this helps.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Jan 22 '20

Just got the Guide at Barnes & Noble on Monday and I love it as always (I have for years!)

Here is a question though why the inconsistencies between projected cost and stats for instance Tatis vs. Rosario.  (I caught this one because I am a big Rosario fan but thought the price evaluation was high)

Fernando Tatis Jr. ($25)


Amed Rosario ($28)


I get that 2 different people might have something to do with the $ prediction vs. the stat prediction.  But when the stat line favors one player in every stat but the other player is projected to cost $3 more it seems really peculiar.

I also saw an even more drastic difference in comparison of Heaney vs. Hendricks.  (I caught this one because they were on the same page lol)

Andrew Heaney ($5)


Kyle Hendricks ($17)


Kevin Wiley kldub4life
Jan 22 '20

Got my copy of the Guide at B&N Rio Gaithersburg, MD.  I like what you've done with the prospect rankings.  Best Now and Later since watermelon flavor came out.  

I think you are too positive on Honeywell, considering he's missed two years and likely part of this year with elbow injuries.  A couple guys I would have liked to see instead:  Nick Madrigal or Brusdar Graterol.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 20 '20

Thanks for the tip, Rickshaws---CVS today for the win.

Mike Landau ML-
Jan 15 '20

The Guide is also in Barnes and Noble now.

Two interesting changes this year in the stat scans...

For hitters, OPS in place of hits. Much better. Who needs hits when we have AB and BA?

For pitchers, HR in place of hits. I'm not sure that's better but it's certainly dramatic.

Clayton Kershaw 2018: 161.3 IP, 17 HR

Clayton Kershaw 2019: 178.3 IP, 28 HR

Craig Kimbrel  2018: 62.3 IP, 7 HR

Craig Kimbrel  2019: 20.7 IP, 9 HR

On and on. 

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 12 '20