Tim Raines Montreal Expos

Age: 61 (September 16, 1959) | aka Rock | 5' 9" | 202lbs. | Bats: Both
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
MON NL 1979 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0.00 n/a
MON NL 1980 15 20 5 1 6 3 0 0 0 0 5 0 .050 .269 .050 22 12 .059 n/a
MON NL 1981 88 313 61 95 45 31 13 7 5 37 71 11 .304 .391 .438 12 9 .321 n/a
MON NL 1982 156 647 90 179 75 83 32 8 4 43 78 16 .277 .353 .369 10 12 .312 n/a
MON NL 1983 156 615 133 183 97 70 32 8 11 71 90 14 .298 .393 .429 13 10 .320 n/a
MON NL 1984 160 622 106 192 87 69 38 9 8 60 75 10 .309 .393 .437 12 10 .335 n/a
MON NL 1985 150 575 115 184 81 60 30 13 11 41 70 9 .320 .405 .475 12 9 .341 n/a
MON NL 1986 151 580 91 194 78 60 35 10 9 62 70 9 .334 .413 .476 12 9 .360 n/a
MON NL 1987 139 530 123 175 90 52 34 8 18 68 50 5 .330 .429 .526 14 8 .339 n/a
MON NL 1988 109 429 66 116 53 44 19 7 12 48 33 7 .270 .350 .431 11 9 .276 n/a
MON NL 1989 145 517 76 148 93 48 29 6 9 60 41 9 .286 .395 .418 15 8 .299 n/a
MON NL 1990 130 457 65 131 70 43 11 5 9 62 49 16 .287 .379 .392 13 8 .295 n/a
CHA AL 1991 155 609 102 163 83 68 20 6 5 50 51 15 .268 .359 .345 12 10 .293 n/a
CHA AL 1992 144 551 102 162 81 48 22 9 7 54 45 6 .294 .380 .405 13 8 .308 n/a
CHA AL 1993 115 415 75 127 64 35 16 4 16 54 21 7 .306 .401 .480 13 7 .303 n/a
CHA AL 1994 101 384 80 102 61 43 15 5 10 52 13 0 .266 .365 .409 13 10 .275 n/a
CHA AL 1995 133 502 81 143 70 52 25 4 12 67 13 2 .285 .374 .422 12 9 .297 n/a
NYA AL 1996 59 201 45 57 34 29 10 0 9 33 10 1 .284 .383 .468 14 12 .287 n/a
NYA AL 1997 74 271 56 87 41 34 20 2 4 38 8 5 .321 .403 .454 13 11 .347 n/a
NYA AL 1998 109 321 53 93 55 49 13 1 5 47 8 3 .290 .395 .383 14 13 .326 n/a
OAK AL 1999 58 135 20 29 26 17 5 0 4 17 4 1 .215 .337 .341 16 10 .216 n/a
MON NL 2001 47 78 13 24 18 6 8 1 0 4 1 0 .308 .433 .436 19 6 .329 n/a
BAL AL 2001 4 11 1 3 0 3 0 0 1 5 0 0 .273 .250 .545 0 25 .250 n/a
FLA NL 2002 98 89 9 17 22 19 3 0 1 7 0 0 .191 .351 .258 19 17 .225 n/a -1
Career 23yrs 2502 8872 1571 2605 1330 966 430 113 170 980 808 146 .294 .385 .425 13 9 .312 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Tom Tango just posted my new article on Raines' candidacy on his website: http://raines30.com/c47.shtml
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 8 '10
Too bad the only one I've ever converted isn't an actual voter.

Jayson Stark wrote a nice part of today's article on Raines.

TIM RAINES

If this is, in fact, the year that Andre Dawson gets elected, maybe he'll be able to shine a light on his longtime teammate, Tim Raines.

I sure hope so, because this man has been, by far, the most criminally unsupported player on this ballot in each of his first two years of eligibility (132 and 122 votes, respectively).

Bet you didn't know that Raines reached base more times (3,977) than Tony Gwynn, Honus Wagner, Lou Brock, Roberto Clemente or Richie Ashburn. Bet you didn't know that not one eligible player who reached base as many times as Raines did and had as high an on-base percentage (.385) is NOT in the Hall of Fame.

Bet you didn't know that Raines is still the only player in history to steal at least 70 bases six years in a row. Bet you didn't know that Juan Pierre has already been thrown out stealing more times in his career (155) than Raines (146) was, even though Raines stole nearly twice as many bases (808-459) as Pierre has swiped.

And bet you didn't know that in the seven seasons from 1982 to 1988, Raines was a leadoff man who led his league in reaching base just about every way it could possibly be reached (singles, doubles, triples AND walks). So Earth to voters: Now that Rickey Henderson is in, Tim Raines is clearly the greatest leadoff hitter in history who isn't in the Hall of Fame.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 5 '10
I just did what I should have done weeks ago and actually read the narrative. In Tim's own words.

http://raines30.com/c37.shtml

I'm a convert. Vote him in.
Alex Patton Alex
Jan 5 '10
An interesting article by Pos again. This one he doesn't manipulate the stats, just reports them. But, he uses WinShares. Comment 55 does the same thing using WAR. Not Sean Smith's WAR, but another variation. They're all relatively similar.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 5 '10
We might disagree about how worthy Raines is. And if we ever sat down at a bar to discuss all of this, we might never agree on which series of metrics or system is better or worse.

I agree with your main point, though. I think Raines belongs in the Hall and Rice does not. The system does reward a narrative and not how good or bad a player actually was in certain cases.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 4 '10
Use Sean Smith's WAR then. http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/top500.htm

Raines comes in 81st among offensive players.

The HOF corner outfielders from Post WWII who are behind him going down:
Dave Winfield
Willie Stargell
Billy Williams
Jim Rice
Lou Brock

Those ahead of him going up:
Tony Gwynn
Reggie
Clemente
Yaz
Kaline
Frank Robinson
Rickey

He's safely in the middle.

I think Raines is safely somewhere between the 53rd and 81st best non-pitcher ever. I'm sure he's lower in WS now due to guys moving up over the past decade.

But consider this: Lou Whitaker 55. Barry Larkin 59. Bobby Grich 63. Edgar Martinez 66. Alan Trammell 69. Ron Santo 74. Roberto Alomar 85. McGwire 88. Reggie Smith 89. Dwight Evans 96. Graig Nettles 99. There are a lot of other thirdbasemen who settle in in numbers lower than 125. They got no consideration. Jim Rice at 258 got in.

The system is a joke and because it's such a big hall is why I support a Big Hall. I'd prefer it smaller, but the cat's out of the bag. Now we have to fix the major oversights and slowly raise the standards. Keeping Raines out makes it worse not better.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 3 '10
It would appear that one of the biggest problems with Win Shares is that it doesn't take positional value into account. Looking at some of the stuff I found on line - thanks to Google - the positional adjustment seems inadequate...at best.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 3 '10
Fair enough. Just wanted to know what your criteria were.
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 3 '10
I have some reservations with VORP b/c it's formula is proprietary. wOBA is a similarly derived stat, based upon its theory, and is better only because the formula is publicly available.

But, wOBA does not include baserunning only what a player does at the plate. If you add in the plus bases on Raines' ledger to his batters' box contribution his numbers rise considerably in those rankings and that's why I have him where I do.

Looking at Win Shares, which considers hitting, running, and defense (which some could see as a defensive adjustment in some cases), the MVPs of the 80s should have been
1980: Schmidt/Brett
81 Schmidt/Henderson
82 Schmidt/Yount
83 Schmidt/Ripken
84 Sandberg/Ripken
85 Raines&McGee/Henderson
86 Raines/Boggs
87 Raines/Trammell
88 W Clark/Canseco
89 W Clark/Yount&Sierra

James complained on page 242 of win shares after 1986 "Two for Raines... another leadoff man gets the short end of the stick. Let's see: Schmidt steals one from Raines, Murphy stole two from Schmidt... as I see it, Dale Murphy owes Tim Raines a trophy..." He goes on after 1987, "Two more MVP awards for the league RBI leaders..."

Win shares by decade- pg 526 (30 is an MVP-type season)
1980s
Rickey Henderson 289
Yount 274
Schmidt 265
Murray 250
Raines 246
Murphy 244
Boggs 237
Dw Evans 230
Brett 229
K Hernandez 221

Raines ranks 53 all-time in Win Shares with 390 through 2001. The five ahead of him- John Clarkson, Wade Boggs, Bill Dahlen, Lefty Grove, Old Hoss Radborne. The five behind- Jesse Burkett, Tom Seaver, Joe DiMaggio, Rod Carew.

Offensive win shares Raines rankes 37.
31 Molitor
32 Paul Waner
33 Gwynn
34 Stargell
35 Cap Anson
36 Harmon Killebrew
37 RAINES
38 Fed Clarke
39 Jesse Burkett
40 Rod Carew
41 Dan Brouthers
42 Billy Williams
43 Joe DiMaggio

Others of interest- 52 Clemente, 61 Lou Brock, 63 Duke Snider, 76 Dave Parker, 78- Andre Dawson, 134 Jim Rice, 138 Dale Murphy.
Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 3 '10
As it turns out, Eugene, you may actually have a wider standard than I do.

When it comes to the dominance argument, I'm not only looking for the best player over a 5-year period, but someone who was SO dominant that I don't give a rat's ass what he did over the rest of his career. Of players I've seen, Pedro Martinez fits this argument best. Over a 5-year period, not only was he the best pitcher in baseball, but he was so far above the rest of the field that it would have been absurd to make a case for someone else being better. That's my dominance argument. While I'd agree that Raines had a dominant stretch, he doesn't fall into that obviously dominant category that the rest of his career numbers aren't even worth looking at.

In any event, I'm not sure what metric you're looking at that points to Raines being so dominant that we should ignore the rest of his career and end the discussion.

Top 10% VORP
1981 Raines 8th
1983 Raines 11th
1984 Raines 5th
1985 Raines 6th
1986 Raines 3rd
1987 Raines 5th

That's a pretty impressive stretch, but he's not #1 with a bullet by any stretch for any of those seasons.

Does Fangraphs' wOBA help?

1981 Raines 3rd
1983 Raines 9th
1984 Raines 12th
1985 Raines 5th
1986 Raines 2nd
1987 Raines 6th

A little bit, but we're not talking about Pedro here.

Dawson, by the way, isn't a Hall of Famer but was a Top 10% VORP hitter over the course of his career only two fewer times than Raines

Top 10% VORP
Dawson 1980 11th
Dawson 1981 2nd
Dawson 1983 10th
Dawson 1990 13th
Mike Gianella MikeG
Jan 3 '10