Ranger Suarez Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 26 (August 26, 1995) | 6' 1" | 180lbs. | Throws: Left Minors: p-7
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
PHI A 2017 6 2 0 0 14 14 85.0 52 4 24 90 1.59 0.89 0.82 2.5 9.5 .243 n/a
PHI A+ 2017 2 4 0 0 8 8 37.2 43 1 11 38 3.82 1.43 1.33 2.6 9.1 .381 n/a
PHI AA 2018 4 3 0 0 12 12 75.0 64 2 20 54 2.76 1.12 1.03 2.4 6.5 .282 n/a
PHI AAA 2018 2 0 0 0 9 9 49.1 48 2 15 31 2.74 1.28 1.19 2.7 5.7 .298 n/a
PHI NL 2019 6 1 0 6 37 0 48.2 52 6 12 42 3.14 1.32 1.38 2.2 7.8 .326 55/22/22 7 6
PHI NL 2020 0 1 0 0 3 0 4.0 10 1 4 1 20.25 3.50 3.38 9.0 2.2 .467 45/20/35 -13 -9
PHI NL 2021 8 5 4 0 39 12 106.0 73 4 33 107 1.36 1.00 0.90 2.8 9.1 .264 59/15/26 27 22
Career 3yrs 14 7 4 6 79 12 158.2 135 11 49 150 2.38 1.16 1.11 2.8 8.5 .294 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

I haven't had a chance to look to closely at this question of pitcher prices, but I suspect that Eugene's point about how many starters versus relievers are in the pool of 108 or 120 or 132 makes a big difference how much closers and top starters earn. And all this messing around with openers and who wins games has muddied the waters. 

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 23

Yes, we've got to get those IP, so we all need some SPs. I play 4x4, so I don't care about K's, but we have 10 pitching slots and 1,000 IP to reach. 

I do think we'll see the starters pitch more innings in 2022 than 2021 (now that we're a year removed from 2020's abbreviated season). We draft 8 and 10 reserves respectively in the 2 leagues I play in. If folks can't reach 1,000 IP, it's really due to their own inattention. 

Scott Shea SJS
Nov 21

I've found if you play with the variables too much in the formulae, it changes the pool. Instead of 108 pitchers with 60 starters, by giving too much weight to ERA/Ratio, you wind up with 108 pitchers with only 45 starters, because the bad starters all become negative, whereas there are a significant number of neutral or small positive value relievers. That can cause a need to adjust the valuation of Ks and possibly Wins, making the top starters even more valuable.  I'm not saying that's a bad thing, it's just how the balance works when determining the top 108 pitchers.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 21

Scott, to make the bad pitchers worth less and the good pitchers worth more, you just need to tighten up the ERA and WHIP cats a little bit.

Instead of having each .06 points make a difference in the ERA standings, make it .05. For WHIP, change .11 to .10.

Doesn't seem like much, does it?

If you do that, Suarez earns $24 in 5x5.

Max Scherzer goes up $3. Alex Wood doesn't change. Jake Arrieta goes down $3.

Same ERA and WHIP for the average NL pitcher, same $ total for all NL pitchers.

I'll write about this some more in Notes for Masochists if I decide to do this. I don't like changing the denominators for the qualitatives (they change each year for all the count 'em cats), so I'm still pondering. It could be that a slight adjustment will more accurately reflect a pitcher's value in the fantasy game, which has changed because of how pitchers are used in the real game.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 21

Not a bad strategy with your pitcher, Neaux Brainers, as long as there are enough pitchers left to analyze after your draft and reserve rounds. I'd be interested to learn what your IP requirement is and how many reserves your league drafts. 


Alex, what do you mean by other analysts "make the bad pitchers lose more?" If the average ERA and WHIP in the Roto leagues you analyze is 4.25 and 1.25, for example, all pitchers with higher ratios than those are losing $$ in those categories. The amount of their losses depends upon how bad their ratios are and how many innings they pitch. So isn't it all mathematical, meaning that once the league averages are known and the formulas are adjusted at the end of the year, aren't the earnings and losses automatically calculated? 

Scott Shea SJS
Nov 20

Makes sense to me, Alex, to consider strongly how much a bad pitcher can hurt. I haven't bought one in a couple of years now. And I have moved in a different direction from the normal pricing.

Pitchers have become such a problem to price, partly because the projections now are so out of whack. For years I have used your analysis, with the understanding that pitchers were worth less because they are more difficult to project, and that the projected hard numbers -- Ks, wins, saves -- were the more estimable, two based on innings pitched and the third based on the normal bullpen 9th inning usage. But all 3 of those are now out the window, and Ks can come from good bullpen who pitch a lot of innings. 

I find that pricing systems of pitchers, even when they made sense, seldom work during the auction. People in my league use significantly different pricing systems, some of which seem like dartboard guesses, especially with inflation of 15% or more.

The past few years I have bought few starters, relying on keepers that I had purchased cheaply the year before. In 2021, I entered the auction without a pitcher on my keeper list.

I have grouped starting pitchers in 4 categories: A group, buy one solid starter for up to about $30 (none in 2020, last year Berrios at $30); B group, a list of all other starters I would like to own, pay 4-12 at most (and understand that they will be bought deep in the auction); C group all other pitchers I would like to own, paying 1-5 unless a potential closer is sneaking through and warrants more; and D group 1-2 but only pitchers who won't hurt me, and if I run out of guys who are ok, buy injured pitchers so I will have up to 2 weeks to disable, picking up a pitcher who has come out strong from spring training. That means that my price list going into the draft has only 120 pitchers on it (10 in each of 12 teams) minus the number of pitchers kept. Even $20 starters I don't trust  go on my list at $1. Easy to nominate.

The result has been a spring of heavy work building a pitching staff, combing the stats to see how well available pitchers are doing now that we have access to lots of information, and lots of pitcher movement during the season, trying to stay ahead of the competition. Part of my reasoning is that I won't know enough at auction time to make good pitching decisions, so I may as well spend my money on hitters and my season management time on pitching.  

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()
Nov 19

Mistyped -- I meant "down ballot CY YOUNG" vote :-)

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Nov 19

Most definitely a fun fact.

But big $$$? In real life, definitely -- here, not really. If you sort NL pitchers by $5x5 in Stats, you'll see a grand total of four earning $30 or more. That's the fewest ever.

Peter's prices and our old friend Mike G's (at BP) show the best 5x5 pitchers earning significantly more. They do it by making the bad pitchers lose more.

I'm thinking of doing that. In part to be more like Peter and Mike. In part to bring what the best pitchers earn more in line with what the expected best pitchers cost; to make the math-generated retrospective prices more closely resemble what the market pays before the season.

Thoughts?

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 19

I get and like the sentiment (and the fun fact!) ... except ... the worst pitcher to get a down ballot vote was Kevin Gausman, who earned 29/29 ... tough, these days, for pitchers to get MVP votes ... but it does seem to be getting easier for them to get the BIG $$$ ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Nov 19

One guy who should have garnered at least one down-ballot MVP vote.  Lowest ERA for a pitcher with > 100 IP since Bruce Sutter in 1977. 

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Nov 19