Max Kepler Minnesota Twins

Age: 29 (February 10, 1993) | 6' 4" | 225lbs. | Bats: Left OF-114 RF-2 DH-4
MIN AL 2018 156 532 80 119 71 96 30 4 20 58 4 5 .224 .319 .408 12 16 .236 38/16/46 11 12
MIN AL 2019 134 524 98 132 60 99 32 0 36 90 1 5 .252 .336 .519 10 17 .244 36/17/47 19 19
MIN AL 2020 48 171 27 39 22 36 9 0 9 23 3 0 .228 .321 .439 11 18 .236 32/22/46 16 16
MIN AAA 2021 3 11 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .091 .091 .091 0 9 .100 n/a
MIN AL 2021 121 426 61 90 54 96 21 4 19 54 10 0 .211 .306 .413 11 20 .225 37/19/44 12 12
MIN AL 2022 95 326 45 74 42 57 14 1 9 41 3 2 .227 .321 .359 11 15 .246 45/21/34 7 7
Career 8yrs 817 2893 430 672 338 594 158 13 129 398 33 15 .232 .318 .430 10 18 .247 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

Instead of SO% followed by K/W we are now showing BB% followed by SO%. The idea being to show the same info for hitters that we are now showing for pitchers.

The change does seem to show Kepler in a better light last year: more walks and fewer strikeouts per plate appearance.  Maybe DRC+ is right. He wasn't as bad as he seemed.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 11 '18

The metric has been rolled out and today Aaron Gleeman applies it to Kepler.

... Kepler had a .257 BABIP from 2016-2018, which was ninth-worst in baseball among the 236 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances, and his .236 BABIP in 2018 was third-worst among qualified hitters. Most of the guys in that same low-BABIP range are some combination of right-handed, slow/old, and extreme fly-ball hitters, but Kepler is none of those things. Yet because he’s posted a very low BABIP in all three years, including one of the worst marks in baseball this past season, it’s getting harder not to assume something beyond just bad luck is to blame.

That was my thinking, anyway. DRC+, however, sees Kepler in a much different light, largely because of how it treats his BABIP. Whereas his OPS and OPS+ have barely budged, DRC+ shows him as debuting at 99 in 2016, dipping to 91 in 2017, and then rising to 111 in 2018, with a “deserved” line of .252/.339/.433 compared to his actual .224/.319/.408 performance. The career numbers are basically the same—95 OPS+ vs. 98 DRC+—but the year-to-year progression tells a different, more encouraging story.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 10 '18

Matthew Trueblood, when he's not musing about Johannes Kepler, finds serious hope for Kepler in a long article at BP. The gist of it:

In an article earlier this month about Kansas City’s Whit Merrifield, I concocted a simplistic yet holistic offensive stat. It centered upon three factors: hitting the ball hard (within the most productive band of launch angles), walking, and not striking out. In this quirky little metric, Kepler fares even better than Merrifield. He stands, in fact, shoulder-to-shoulder with Bryce Harper, and the player to whom Kepler maps best in the three factors individually is Andrew Benintendi.

It’s speaking slightly out of school to mention this, but I’ll do so anyway: we will soon be rolling out a new offensive value metric at Baseball Prospectus. This is the brainchild of Jonathan Judge (with help, of course), and follows many of the same principles as our industry-leading Deserved Run Average for pitchers. We’re calling it Deserved Runs Created (DRC, for short, and it will nearly always be rendered in its adjusted rate form, DRC+), and in the opinion of that model, Kepler actually made a significant forward leap in 2018.

Alex Patton Alex
Nov 24 '18

I won't say this is a bad idea. I thought Kepler would get better quicker, so there probably is a career year coming where he's worth $23 or something like that. Could happen this year, he's walking a lot more which should help, but we have yet to see it help. I guess I mean it is gonna come, but I'm not sure this year is more likely than next year. I want him, but I want him cheap.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 24 '18

I'm thinking that Kepler has been worth 12 for three years in a row, so a bidder may get lucky and buy him for 12, but probably not. He was a disappointment  last year, but still managed 20 HR and an increase in OBP.  I will go higher, probably stop at 14, because I think your projection last year works for 2019. 

David Molyneaux NeauxBrainers ()
Nov 24 '18

I'm working on Big Prices for the Guide. Today I have Max Kepler with a price of $12. What do you think?

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 17 '18

Another solo homer yesterday. On April 11, he hit two homers and drove in three runs. On May 18 he hit a homer, a double, and drove in three runs. On  June 20 he hit a homer and drove in two. On July 6 ditto. On July 23 ditto. On August 4 he hit a homer and two singles and drove in two. All of his other homers (and maybe some listed here) have come with the bases empty.

Not to complain or anything.

Alex Patton Alex
Aug 24 '18

A homer and a triple, driving in... one.

Max isn't exactly a run-producer. Usually batting fifth or lower, he's scored many more runs than he's driven in. This month he has four homers and five RBI. In his last 30 games, he's slugged .556 and driven in 11 runs.

I'm not complaining, just stating the facts.

Alex Patton Alex
Aug 21 '18

Joins the club.

Alex Patton Alex
Jul 7 '18

With Kepler's steal I'd be 1 1/2 points higher in the standings today.

Alex Patton Alex
Jun 29 '18