Ke'Bryan Hayes Pittsburgh Pirates

Age: 23 (January 28, 1997) | 6' 1" | 210lbs. | Bats: Right 3B-24 PH-3
PIT AA 2018 117 437 64 128 57 84 31 7 7 47 12 5 .293 .375 .444 11 17 .344 n/a
PIT NL 2020 24 85 17 32 9 20 7 2 5 11 1 0 .376 .442 .682 9 21 .450 48/22/31 18 17
Career 1yr 24 85 17 32 9 20 7 2 5 11 1 0 .376 .442 .682 9 21 .450 n/a
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Normally you don't earn $17 or $18 in your first 24 games in the majors, but there was nothing normal about this season.

Hayes cemented his position as the best prospect on the Pirates in the most recent rankings from BP.

  • 1.
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes
  • 3B
  • Born: 1997-01-28
  • B: Right
  • T: Right
  • H: 5′ 10″
  • W: 205 lbs.
  • Drafted 32nd overall in the 2015 draft, Concordia Lutheran HS (Tomball, TX); signed for $1.855 million.

The Report: If you got to the park by 4 p.m., Hayes looked like a perennial All-Star in waiting. He’d flash plus-plus raw power at the end of batting practice, and early on when he was taking it easy and getting loose, would still crack laser beam line drives from gap to gap. The plus-or-better glove at third base was obvious as well. At 7 p.m.? Well, he still looked like a very good third base prospect. The glove was more obviously plus-plus as he’d slow the game down, or fire an accurate strike from a step or two into foul territory. There was a strong approach at the plate, and he’d hit the ball incredibly hard—it’s at least 70-grade bat speed. But Hayes didn’t lift pitches consistently, instead ripping doubles down the left field line when he really got into one. He never managed double-digit home run totals until 2019 with the Triple-A rabbit ball, in what was overall a bit of a disappointing campaign. The lack of game power seemed to limit the upside to merely a good regular as Hayes stood on the precipice of the majors. 

Development Track: After implying that Hayes could have the everyday third base job if he just signed a cheap extension, the Pirates finally gave him some run at the hot corner at the end of a lost season. If you want a bright spot for the 2020 season—in addition to securing the first-overall pick, I guess—he immediately found that missing over-the-fence game power. And these home runs weren’t cheapies. It’s not a large enough sample size to be sure it will play as plus going forward—he’s still list eligible, after all—but it looked very, very right. As did the rest of the offensive profile and the glove at third. But we’ve long been pretty sure about those.

OFP: 70 / All-Star third baseman

Variance: Medium. Hayes was always likely to be a good regular given the approach, plus hit tool, and plus-plus glove. How real the 2020 power breakout is will dictate exactly how good a regular. —Jeffrey Paternostro

Major league ETA: Debuted in 2020

Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: I long loved Hayes, believing his minor-league numbers masked his true upside. Then around this time last year, I hedged like a coward and tempered expectations as to whether Hayes could be an impact bat. Yes, it’s fewer than 100 plate appearances, but Hayes looks every bit like That Dude, making a ton of loud contact and finding a way to consistently leave the yard. Hayes is a top-10 dynasty name, for me, pushing top five, and I’m sorry for doubting him.

Alex Patton Alex
Fangraphs: EV 92.8 HardHit 55% HR/FB 25% LD%+ 99 Pull 25% Cent 40% Oppo 35%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '20