Javier Baez Chicago Cubs

Age: 27 (December 1, 1992) | 6' 0" | 190lbs. | Bats: Right 3B-1 SS-130 DH-2 PH-9
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
CHC AAA 2016 4 15 3 4 0 4 0 0 1 1 1 0 .267 .267 .467 0 27 .300 n/a
CHC NL 2016 142 421 50 115 15 108 19 1 14 59 12 3 .273 .314 .423 3 24 .336 44/20/36 18 16
CHC NL 2017 145 469 75 128 30 144 24 2 23 75 10 3 .273 .317 .480 6 29 .345 49/15/36 22 21
CHC NL 2018 160 606 101 176 29 167 40 9 34 111 21 9 .290 .326 .554 4 26 .347 46/22/32 42 38
CHC NL 2019 138 531 89 149 28 156 38 4 29 85 11 7 .281 .316 .531 5 28 .345 50/18/32 27 25
CHC NL 2020 59 222 27 45 7 75 9 1 8 24 3 0 .203 .238 .360 3 32 .262 50/18/32 6 7
Career 7yrs 724 2538 371 671 128 769 142 17 118 378 63 25 .264 .304 .473 5 29 .333 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

A hearty agreement on that.  BB/9 and SO/9 would also line up with the Forecaster, which would be convenient---more convenient here, frankly, because the Forecaster insists on combining MLB and MLE numbers in their player capsules.

Mike Landau ML-
Dec 12 '18

I find myself agreeing with the old-schoolers about pitchers (Corbin thread) but BB% for hitters might be better than K/W. For Baez, the fact that he made better contact is tempered by the fact that he was even less selective. 

Maybe we should show BB% and SO% for hitters, BB/9 and SO/9 for pitchers? The same things, just expressed differently.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 12 '18

$30 is very reasonable but my personal bid limit will be at least a few dollars higher.

What about these two assessments of his value over the last five years?

WAR

2014: -1.0

2015: 0.6

2016: 3.2

2017: 2.9

2018: 6.3

Win Shares

2014: 2

2015: 1

2016: 14

2017: 15

2018: 24

Similar but different, no?

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 3 '18
I'm working on Big Prices for the Guide. Today I have Javier Baez with a price of $30. What do you think?
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 17 '18

Also Juan Gonzalez and Joe Carter.

van wilhoite LVW
Nov 17 '18

Alfonso Soriano comes to mind as someone who'd fit that profile.

Mike Landau ML-
Nov 17 '18

That's worth looking into. Here's one totally random piece of evidence.

Baez had a 1.194 OPS when ahead in the count last year, and a .627 when behind. His OPS+ was 126.

Jose Ramirez, who had a much better season (150 OPS+) and walked 70 times more while striking out 80 fewer times, had a 1.184 OPS when ahead in the count and a .576 when behind.

Clearly not proof of anything, but a little surprising.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 16 '18

I have a theory( I haven't done any extensive research on it...just a general observation from watching a lot of years) that hitters that succeed with a mediocre walk rate and/or K/W ratio do more damage, comparatively speaking, on 2-0 and 3-1 counts than other type hitters. 

van wilhoite LVW
Nov 16 '18

I've got a price on him of $30 right now (NL 5x5 league). I'm feeling that's too meek. Steals get a discount, but he should still be $35 or so. What do you think?

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 16 '18

He's slowly bringing the strikeout rate down, maybe because he's hitting a lot of stuff hard. Hard to project a similar season again, and yet I can't say any rational way he won't repeat, unless he hits 50 doubles and only 24 HR.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 15 '18