Dylan Carlson St. Louis Cardinals

Age: 21 (October 23, 1998) | 1677' 2" | 20126lbs. Minors: of-118 lf-12 cf-95 rf-12 dh-7 ph-2
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
STL A 2018 13 47 5 11 10 10 3 0 2 9 2 0 .234 .368 .426 18 18 .257 n/a
STL A+ 2018 99 376 63 93 52 78 19 3 9 53 6 3 .247 .345 .386 12 18 .286 n/a
STL AA 2019 108 417 81 117 52 98 24 6 21 59 18 7 .281 .364 .518 11 20 .315 n/a
STL AAA 2019 18 72 14 26 6 18 4 2 5 9 2 1 .361 .418 .681 8 23 .429 n/a
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More helium today, this time from BP, unveiling the top Cardinals prospects.

1. Dylan Carlson, OF
DOB: 
10/23/1998
Height/Weight: 6’3” / 205 lbs
Bats/Throws: 
S/L
Drafted/Acquired: 
Drafted 33rd overall in the 2016 draft, Elk Grove HS (Elk Grove, CA); signed for $1.35 million
Previous Ranking(s): 
11th (Org)
2019 Stats: 
.281/.364/.518, 21 HR, 18 SB in 108 games for Double-A Springfield; .361/.418/.681, 5 HR, 2 SB in 18 games for Triple-A Memphis

The Report: There’s breakout prospects and then there’s breakout prospects. Carlson is the latter. He had spent the last couple years flashing big tools while putting up fine, but unspectacular, performance albeit while relatively young for his leagues. In 2019 he finally started tapping into his raw power, and a move to center field went well enough—stupid Cardinals Devil Magic—and he’s gone from a good org name with some tweener tendencies to a potential five-tool center fielder and national darling. It’s not a lock he sticks up-the-middle. Although he’s a good baserunner, he’s not a true burner. He’s filled out in his upper body and has maintained his loose, athletic swing. He has plus bat speed from both sides of the plate and gets to his plus raw power without sacrificing any barrel control. Some .290, 25 home run seasons are likely, and if he can actually handle center in the majors, All-Star games will follow.  

OFP: 70 / All-Star outfielder

Variance: Medium. There’s a chance he continues his growth and there’s a bit more in the tank at the plate. There’s also the risk he’s more of a .270, 20 HR corner outfielder who plays center once or twice a week. That’s still a very nice major leaguer, but not a star.

Major league ETA:  2020

Mark Barry’s Fantasy Take: 

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 24

The Martinez deal should put more helium into Carlson's balloon - but a warning from Rotoballer:

"He might be getting overrated a bit too much so be cautious when bidding for his services. The massive power spike came out of nowhere but seems to have coincided with his body adding muscle, as well as a conscious effort to hit more fly balls. But when watching him play, we see a player who still gets fooled by off-speed stuff. His swing also gets long more often than not and he doesn’t have the natural, explosive bat speed of a Luis Robert. "

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 10

From Sickels 2020 list:

21) Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals, Grade A-: Previously 24; breakout player hit .292/.372/.542 with 26 homers, 20 steals between Double-A and Triple-A; only 20 years old; do not overlook him.

GEOFF CRESAP SydThrift
Dec 31 '19

The hype meter will be pegging on this guy if he makes the Cards opening day roster.  26 homers and 20 stolen bases and .292/.372/.542 between Double-A and Triple-A last year.

Since almost nobody is going to have him on their reserve list ... a good ST showing will push him into the high teens or even low 20's, particularly in protect leagues.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Dec 30 '19