Devin Williams Milwaukee Brewers

Age: 28 (September 21, 1994) | 6' 2" | 200lbs. | Throws: Right
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
MIL A+ 2018 0 3 0 0 14 14 34.0 40 2 22 35 5.82 1.82 1.59 5.8 9.3 .384 n/a
MIL AA 2019 7 2 4 0 31 0 53.1 34 3 29 76 2.36 1.18 0.99 4.9 12.8 .294 n/a
MIL AAA 2019 0 0 0 0 3 0 3.2 2 0 1 6 0.00 0.82 0.68 2.5 14.7 .315 n/a
MIL NL 2020 4 1 0 9 22 0 27.0 8 1 9 53 0.33 0.63 0.52 3.0 17.7 .232 61/11/28 32 28
MIL NL 2021 8 2 3 23 58 0 54.0 36 5 28 87 2.50 1.19 1.06 4.7 14.5 .322 45/18/37 13 12
MIL NL 2022 6 4 15 26 65 0 60.2 31 2 30 96 1.93 1.01 0.81 4.5 14.2 .279 51/20/29 23 17
Career 3yrs 18 7 18 58 145 0 141.2 75 8 67 236 1.84 1.00 0.85 4.3 15.0 .291 n/a
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Ron Shandler in the PDF Baseball Forecaster, posted yesterday at baseballhq:


The definition of insanity


The quotable definition of insanity is “doing the same thing over
and over again and expecting different results.” This definition
has been attributed to various sources, from Albert Einstein, to
Sigmund Freud, to Alcoholics Anonymous. For us sports fans, I
think it harkens back to cartoonist Charles Schulz.


Picture Lucy. She represents the totality of major league bull-
pens. Her football represents our quest for saves. And every one
of us is Charlie Brown. Each year, Lucy presents us with that ball
and goads us into attempting a successful kick, only to pull the
ball away every time. Yet, we keep going back, year after year.


From the beginning of time (circa 1980), saves have been the
bane of our fantasy existence. The commodity is accumulated by
a small core of pitchers, and no matter how much talent they may 
or may not have, their positioning on a ninth inning mound is left to the fickle whims of a major league manager.


In 1999, I started tracking how well the experts in LABR and
Tout Wars could identify the best investments. We did pretty
well that first year, with only a 22 percent failure rate (defined
as investments that returned less than 50 percent of their draft
price). That jumped to 37 percent in 2000 and 59 percent in 2003
before settling into a 35-45 percent range for a good decade.


After a bad year in 2012 (66%), the failure rate settled down
again, but breached 50 percent in 2016 and has not abated since.
Over the past six years coming into 2022 (not counting 2020), our
failure rate has
averaged 59 percent.


Concurrently, the average draft price for these closers has plum-
meted from about $20 in the early 2000s to $11.79 in 2021. The
riskier the investment, the less we are generally willing to pay. Even
five years ago, it was unheard of to draft a potential closer for less
than $10; now, at least one-third of our closers cost less than that.


And then there was 2022.


All the draft season talk was about how Liam Hendriks and Josh
Hader were getting overdrafted in the second round, or costing
owners $25 and up. And why not? Both had earned around $30
for their owners in 2021. But in 2022, Hendriks returned about
$21; Hader just $10.


The losses trickled down throughout most of the draft pool.
After Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Díaz and Jordan Romano returned
fair value, arms like Giovanny Gallegos, Aroldis Chapman and
Corey Knebel failed, and most of the sub-$10 speculative picks
were losers.

In all, 25 of the 35 pitchers drafted for saves earned back less
than 50 percent of their draft value, a record-breaking failure rate
of 71 percent. Over the entire draft pool, only 17 of the pitchers
even returned positive earnings, and only two turned a profit—
Paul Sewald and Devin Williams. In real dollar terms, the $443
spent on saves in 2022 returned just $65. That’s less than 15 cents
earned for each dollar spent.




Alex Patton Alex
Nov 24

For Brewers fans, going from: Boxberger, Suter, Williams, Hader to Guerra, Strzelecki, Bush, Williams FEELS like kind of a drop off. 

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Nov 19

Struck out the side for his first save after the Brew Crew scored two in the top of the ninth against the Pirates to take a 3-2 lead. Sixteen pitches, 13 for strikes.

The Monkey will be reminding us tomorrow...

VULTURE SAVE WATCH
Thursday:
1. Devin Williams (MIL) — No chance that Josh Hader (10 saves) pitches after going in two straight and four of five.

Alex Patton Alex
Apr 28
2020: FB 44% FBv 96.5 EV 83.7 HardHit 27% Barrel 5% HR/FB 10% FIP 0.86
2021: FB 35% FBv 95.4 EV 85.7 HardHit 28% Barrel 6% HR/FB 13% FIP 2.82
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21