Buster Posey San Francisco Giants

Age: 32 (March 27, 1987) | 6' 1" | 210lbs. C-88 1B-13 DH-3 PH-4
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
SF NL 2015 150 557 74 177 56 52 28 0 19 95 2 0 .318 .379 .470 9 8 .320 44/22/34 30 28
SF NL 2016 146 539 82 155 64 68 33 2 14 80 6 1 .288 .362 .434 10 11 .303 49/22/30 21 21
SF NL 2017 140 494 62 158 61 66 34 0 12 67 6 1 .320 .400 .462 11 12 .347 44/23/33 23 21
SF NL 2018 105 398 47 113 45 53 22 1 5 41 3 2 .284 .359 .382 10 12 .316 47/22/31 11 12
SF NL 2019 16 55 3 11 7 12 5 0 0 1 0 0 .200 .290 .291 11 19 .256 42/28/30 -1 -1
Career 11yrs 1160 4225 555 1287 457 575 251 9 133 636 23 9 .305 .374 .463 10 12 .324 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

The projections in the Guide are pretty mechanical. They take the last three years of stats, and slice and dice them based on component stats and some age adjustments. For a guy with constant at bats over the last three years you get a weighted average with some modifiers that improve them. For many players, with playing time issues, team issues, etc, they are a rough approximation of True Talent.

The projections you're seeing here on the site now, are run through a similar process, but then they are bespoke. All the best (most accurate) projections in the world, are adjusted by eye and feel. There is no algorithm that can incorporate all the stuff we know about a player. My projections in the POD package include a lot of work that shapes the projection based on my answers to the big and little questions about each player. That's what we sell in the in the POD program and spreadsheet and text files that go on sale on Valentines Day.  

In the years Tom Tango ran his Projections Contest, all the winners made human interventions to improve their base projections. Tom's goal was to show that the difference between heavily crafted projection systems and his Marcel the Monkey weighted-average system were not significant, and I think he made the case that no single human is consistently better than a good mechanical system.

But I think he also made the case that some human is pretty much always better than the mechanical systems. 

For me making the projections for the POD package is about trying to answer some of the questions that a player's past performance has raised about his future performance. And one of the best things about the projection process is the way the community here talks about that stuff, and provokes more questioning and more analysis. Which we talk about here all spring, and summer, and fall.

The bottom line is that the projections that score best are incredibly boring. I work hard to make my projections boring. But the players who play the best are the ones who look at boring projections and then make bets on the over. They find the players who will win us/you/we leagues.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 11

In the Guide Peter projects Posey to hit .282 with 11 homers. Here, right now, he's saying .294 and ten homers. The official Rotoman 2019 projection will of course be the one in the final update.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 10
Fangraphs:  WAR 2.0   Bat 4    Field 0    Run -4   HR/FB 5%    Pull 34%   Hard 36%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '18