Buster Posey San Francisco Giants

Age: 32 (March 27, 1987) | 6' 1" | 210lbs. | Bats: Right C-88 1B-13 DH-3 PH-4
SF NL 2015 150 557 74 177 56 52 28 0 19 95 2 0 .318 .379 .470 9 8 .320 44/22/34 30 28
SF NL 2016 146 539 82 155 64 68 33 2 14 80 6 1 .288 .362 .434 10 11 .303 49/22/30 21 21
SF NL 2017 140 494 62 158 61 66 34 0 12 67 6 1 .320 .400 .462 11 12 .347 44/23/33 23 21
SF NL 2018 105 398 47 113 45 53 22 1 5 41 3 2 .284 .359 .382 10 12 .316 47/22/31 11 12
SF NL 2019 92 319 37 82 29 54 24 0 6 34 0 0 .257 .326 .389 8 15 .292 46/23/31 6 7
Career 11yrs 1236 4489 589 1358 479 617 270 9 139 669 23 9 .303 .371 .460 9 12 .322 n/a
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Less than half as many career HRs as Brian McCann ... who now has as many this year as Posey in last year and this combined. 

There's another bar bet for you.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jun 29

And, that is exactly why Joe Mauer is a hall of famer despite the arguments that his career was too short and he wasn't very good once he moved out from behind the plate.  The fact is that catchers careers are shorter because of the wear and tear.  It's absolutely rare that you have a Gary Carter, Ivan Rodriguez, or Carlton Fisk who plays 20 years behind the plate and there's no reason to hold Mauer, Posey, and Tenace or Munson to their standard.  Mickey Cochrane played 13 years and made the HOF, Piazza 15 behind the plate.  Nobody is Johnny Bench.

FWIW- Yogi Berra played the 20th most games behind the plate.  Ernie Lombardi 30th, Mickey Cochrane 38th.  Nobody every questioned their HOF credentials from what I recall.  Granted, Posey is down with Roger Breshnahan and Mauer in the 130s-140s. 

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
May 30

Concussions have ruined him. I would expect this to become a focus at some point in time for catchers.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 30

The projections in the Guide are pretty mechanical. They take the last three years of stats, and slice and dice them based on component stats and some age adjustments. For a guy with constant at bats over the last three years you get a weighted average with some modifiers that improve them. For many players, with playing time issues, team issues, etc, they are a rough approximation of True Talent.

The projections you're seeing here on the site now, are run through a similar process, but then they are bespoke. All the best (most accurate) projections in the world, are adjusted by eye and feel. There is no algorithm that can incorporate all the stuff we know about a player. My projections in the POD package include a lot of work that shapes the projection based on my answers to the big and little questions about each player. That's what we sell in the in the POD program and spreadsheet and text files that go on sale on Valentines Day.  

In the years Tom Tango ran his Projections Contest, all the winners made human interventions to improve their base projections. Tom's goal was to show that the difference between heavily crafted projection systems and his Marcel the Monkey weighted-average system were not significant, and I think he made the case that no single human is consistently better than a good mechanical system.

But I think he also made the case that some human is pretty much always better than the mechanical systems. 

For me making the projections for the POD package is about trying to answer some of the questions that a player's past performance has raised about his future performance. And one of the best things about the projection process is the way the community here talks about that stuff, and provokes more questioning and more analysis. Which we talk about here all spring, and summer, and fall.

The bottom line is that the projections that score best are incredibly boring. I work hard to make my projections boring. But the players who play the best are the ones who look at boring projections and then make bets on the over. They find the players who will win us/you/we leagues.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Feb 11

In the Guide Peter projects Posey to hit .282 with 11 homers. Here, right now, he's saying .294 and ten homers. The official Rotoman 2019 projection will of course be the one in the final update.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 10
Fangraphs:  WAR 2.0   Bat 4    Field 0    Run -4   HR/FB 5%    Pull 34%   Hard 36%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '18