Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 29 (October 16, 1992) | 6' 3" | 210lbs. | Bats: Left 1B-1 OF-139 CF-3 RF-48 DH-2 PH-4
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
WAS NL 2018 159 550 103 137 130 169 34 0 34 100 13 3 .249 .393 .496 19 24 .289 40/22/38 29 28
PHI NL 2019 157 573 98 149 99 178 36 1 35 114 15 3 .260 .372 .510 15 26 .313 38/24/38 30 28
PHI NL 2020 58 190 41 51 49 43 9 2 13 33 8 2 .268 .420 .542 20 18 .279 36/18/46 35 32
PHI NL 2021 141 488 101 151 100 134 42 1 35 84 13 3 .309 .429 .615 17 23 .359 41/22/37 38 35
PHI NL 2022 64 242 49 77 26 52 21 1 15 48 9 2 .318 .385 .599 9 19 .346 35/29/35 21 19
Career 11yrs 1347 4799 899 1350 859 1241 291 23 282 800 120 41 .281 .391 .528 15 22 .321 n/a
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Actually not.

2011: Costs: last reserve roster spot
Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 12 '12
Yea, I guess he does have monster upside. I'm just looking at it from a cost benefit thing. Just making some reasonable guesses, here's what a $15 bet on Harper in 2011 gets you:

2011: Costs $15, Earns $0
2012: Costs $15 Earns $15
2013 Costs $20 Earns $23
2014: Costs $20 Earns $30

I mean, those seem like reasonable estimates, maybe even generous. In Griffey's 3rd year he went .327 22/100/18. It was the NEXT three years after that that Griff really started earning.

Just from a cost analysis of this, Harper could end up costing $70 over those 4 years and not even earning the $70.

If all the hype is true, and I've no reason to believe it isn't, then I'll bet a high 30s to 40s bid might make sense in a few years, but I'm just saying that it'll be hard for this early part of his career to turn a huge profit for his owner.
Keith Prosseda andypro
May 12 '12
Our league is interesting in that you can extend players as up to three seasons, but there is no penalty for cutting them early.

Knowing the owner who acquired Harper, he'll extend him to at least 20 going forward.

And I hear what you are saying, andy, but the upside of Harper is .300-30HR-30SB which is worth about $40. His non-injured downside is probably .260-10HR-10SB which is about $10.

A two season $20 bet to earn a minimum of $10 and a max of $40 would appeal to most of us.

And yes, I get the unproven at the major league level part, but being able to do what he has done in an age relative way puts him on a Ken Griffey, Jr type of path.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 12 '12
Sorry, still not sold. I mean to say, I don't know what his career will be like, but I'm guessing very good.

In leagues that have contracts that have a time limit (say two free years and then a decision), I don't think Harper is a very good play.

Let's say you got him last year, and this is his second year. Let's give him .275 10/55/10 for this season. Now, you've got him at $15 going into next year, and you have to extend him or lose him following that season.

Now, I'm guessing that those who get him on his second contract might see some good returns.
Keith Prosseda andypro
May 12 '12
And so it begins in my home league:

Harper 15:2, Harang 1:1 traded for Votto 29:O and Buehrle 12:1

I wasn't involved, but it's our first dump trade and it shows how Harper is valued.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 11 '12
And the legend grows!

From rotoworld.com ...

Mark DeRosa aggravated his left oblique strain when he gave Bryce Harper a high-five after the youngster stole home during Sunday's game.

Seriously. "I don’t know if that set back the rehab or not," Nationals manager Davey Johnson said. "But I said, ‘Why didn’t use your [right] hand?’ He said it was spur of the moment."
Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 11 '12
Interesting move in my home league (NL ultra) -- guy with Harper at 15:2 is offering him around for two "this year" studs ... one hitter, one pitcher.
Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 8 '12
MikeG, didn't you pay $4 for Harper in Tout? That must be a kick.
Alex Patton Alex
May 8 '12
Oh, I didn't know that. Probably just a pitch that got away.
Keith Prosseda andypro
May 7 '12
Hamels got plunked in the third inning.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 7 '12