$8 in LABR, which beats Trout the night before by $3. I'm surprised, actually. Unless he's sent to the minor league camp, my guess is he'll be $14 in Tout Wars. I would have expected similar here.

Thanks, Scott. It's an experiment. Not a very sexy one and it's been done before, but it will be fun to see next year how my picks and pans pan out.

I like the Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds approach that Alex is taking with a lot things, e.g. collecting all of the respected "should have been" ERAs and coming up with one group number.

Tip of the cap.

He wins the three-way shootout with Trout and Moore for the top spot on BA's Top 100 Prospects list. It's such a close call in the voting among eight editors that BA also polled eleven "player personnel officials with big league clubs," getting a slightly different order of finish (Trout second instead of Moore).

J.J. Cooper then reviews seven previous seasons that had "a trio of prospects who all could make a case for the top spot" (2005, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1993). In how many of those seasons, do you suppose, did all three click?

None.

One out of the three in each season either doesn't click or is a total bust, and it really doesn't matter whether he's first, second or third on the list that year.

2005: Delmon Young (3).
2003: Rocco Baldelli (2)
2001: Corey Patterson (2)
1998: Ben Grieve (1)
1997: Kerry Wood (3)
1995: Ruben Rivera (2)
1993: Brian Taylor (2)

Fear not, Harper/Trout/Moore owners; 2012 is going to break this spell.

I'm going the other way on this one. Harper is 19 years old. He did not light AA on fire either. Yes, it is only 129 AB, but he slugged .395. The Nationals have plenty of guys to play the OF, including the unmentioned Mike Cameron and Xavier Paul. This team looks to be built to compete this year and try and win next year - they look like they are a free agent away still.

Regardless, I would not bank my baseball season, or my fantasy baseball season, on significant production from Harper this year.

(Note: Please make sure you point this comment out to me in July, when Harper already has 15 home runs and is hitting .320).

He's already on the 40 man roster. While service time is calculated by 25 man roster time the Nats don't have many outfielders on the 40 man list. Bernadina, Werth, and Eury Perez. Plus Morse who will likely play a lot of OF instead of 1B if LaRoche is healthy. They may have little choice but to play Harper this year even if he's not ready if they intend to compete with the older and injured Phillies and the Braves.

I agree with you, Alex.

Harper will be up and contributing to the Nats this season...and possibly sooner than some expect. While Strasburg and Storen were a little older and seasoned college players, the Nats moved them up the ranks pretty quickly. The Nats are looking to win now, and I expect Harper to be a big part of their 2012 plans.

Just got my copy of the 2012 Minor League Baseball Analyst.

Harper is at the top of the top 100 list. No surprise there.

Then there's another list. Top 100 2012 Fantasy Prospects. Players who are going to help this year. Harper's No. 8.

That's impressive.

But you know what? When all the dust has settled, I think he'll be higher.

As we see, after Harper's big game in Arizona on Oct. 18, he kept the pedal pressed to the medal.

What exactly do the AFL stats tell us? Not much, perhaps (more because of the quality of the pitching than the small sample size), but they are fun to look at.