Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 29 (October 16, 1992) | 6' 3" | 210lbs. | Bats: Left 1B-1 OF-139 CF-3 RF-48 DH-2 PH-4
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
WAS AAA 2012 21 74 8 18 9 14 4 1 1 3 1 1 .243 .325 .365 11 17 .288 n/a
WAS NL 2012 139 533 98 144 56 120 26 9 22 59 18 6 .270 .340 .477 9 20 .310 45/23/33 24 23
WAS A+ 2013 2 4 2 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 .500 .600 1.50 20 20 .500 n/a
WAS AA 2013 2 7 3 2 2 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 .286 .444 .571 22 33 .500 n/a
WAS NL 2013 118 424 71 116 61 94 24 3 20 58 11 4 .274 .368 .486 12 19 .306 47/20/33 23 21
WAS A+ 2014 2 4 3 3 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 .750 .833 1.50 33 0 .667 n/a
WAS AA 2014 3 10 4 6 3 1 1 0 3 7 2 2 .600 .692 1.60 23 8 .500 n/a
WAS NL 2014 100 352 41 96 38 104 10 2 13 32 2 2 .273 .344 .423 10 27 .352 44/22/35 13 12
WAS NL 2015 153 521 118 172 124 131 38 1 42 99 6 4 .330 .460 .649 19 20 .369 39/22/39 43 42
WAS NL 2016 147 506 84 123 108 117 24 2 24 86 21 10 .243 .373 .441 17 19 .264 40/17/42 25 23
WAS NL 2017 111 420 95 134 68 99 27 1 29 87 4 2 .319 .413 .595 14 20 .356 40/22/38 28 28
WAS NL 2018 159 550 103 137 130 169 34 0 34 100 13 3 .249 .393 .496 19 24 .289 40/22/38 29 28
PHI NL 2019 157 573 98 149 99 178 36 1 35 114 15 3 .260 .372 .510 15 26 .313 38/24/38 30 28
PHI NL 2020 58 190 41 51 49 43 9 2 13 33 8 2 .268 .420 .542 20 18 .279 36/18/46 35 32
PHI NL 2021 141 488 101 151 100 134 42 1 35 84 13 3 .309 .429 .615 17 23 .359 41/22/37 38 35
Career 10yrs 1283 4557 850 1273 833 1189 270 22 267 752 111 39 .279 .392 .524 15 22 .320 n/a
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So the glossary -- on the Savant's page, no less -- is simply wrong?

I thought it had to be.

Alex Patton Alex

 Homers and strikeouts count in xBA. They take an average of the likelihood balls in play will be hits based on exit velocity and launch angle and direction, home run balls are 100 percent likely to be hits, and then add in actual strikeouts. The idea is to take away real-world fielding results.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

Perhaps I should have checked the glossary at Baseball Savant last week before I posted the comment for Bryce Harper (and many others).

Seems we're talking about expected BABIP, which is very different from expected batting average.

On the other hand, was Harper's actual BABIP really 50+ points higher than his expected, based on the Statcast measurements? He hits the ball awfully hard; I'd thnk his expected BABIP, if anything, would be higher than the actual.

I just don't picture him getting too many dink hits.

Here's something curious in the Savant's percentiles for Harper.

K% 43

Whiff% 11

For most batters, these two rate stats are close; not redundant but close (Acuna 34, 30; Soto 90, 80; Freeman 86, 74). Not so with Harper.

Compared to others, he swings and misses at a lot of pitches. But, again compared to others, he doesn't strike out that often.

It would seem he shortens up and battles with two strikes. He still loses the battle often enough (57% of batters whiff less often). But very few batters swing and miss as often as he does (89% at least get a piece of the ball more often).

Alex Patton Alex

Statcast xBA: .301, ninth in the majors.

2021 HardHit% has been corrected.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 6
2020: EV 92.3 HardHit 49% Barrel 17% HR/FB 20% LA 16.7 Pull 39% Cent 34% Oppo 27%
2021: EV 92.5 HardHit 49% Barrel 18% HR/FB 27% LA 13.3 Pull 38% Cent 34% Oppo 28%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21