Bo Bichette (SS) TOR - Aug. 04
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=14310

Bichette went 3-for-5 with two doubles and a pair of runs scored in Thursday's 9-3 win over the Twins.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Bichette had gone 2-for-16 across his last five games prior to breaking out of the mini-slump Thursday. He was able to score as part of the Blue Jays' rallies in the sixth and eighth innings. The shortstop lifted his season slash line to .260/.303/.419 with 14 home runs, 56 RBI, 57 runs scored, seven stolen bases and 26 doubles through 104 contests.

I just looked at his 5x5 earnings (it's almost true in 4x4). If you follow the trend line, he'll be worth $80 this year.

Hmm, I think I'm going to have to move higher, but for now let's contemplate the risks. Bichette had a terrific season last year, with the bat and on the basepaths. He doesn't walk that much, but he makes enough good contact to avoid bad counts. But he also goes after bad pitches a lot, which hasn't hurt him so far but can't be a good thing. Last year's numbers are solidly supported by his Statcast numbers. I guess I'm going to have to move higher, but for some reason that makes me a little uncomfortable. That's a hunch, not the basis for a solid argument against.

Voilà! The bids are up.

I don't think even Mike gets him in any of the demo leagues.

With so little to look forward to, I've been looking back this morning.

Here are the six bids in the final update of last year's Projector (April 8).

PK5 $28

MF5 $29

AP4 $31

CBS $33

LABR $35

TOUT $32

Big investments all. And of course, Bo paid off big on them all.

By no means does PK5 have to equal the dollar value of Rotoman's projection, but in this case it does. He projected 90-30-88-15-..286, which, in my formulas, was worth $28 in 5x5.

If you've subscribed this year, you see at the bottom of the stat scan that Peter projects Bo to be worth $35 in 5x5. Again in my formula. The 4x4 formula shows the same stats to be worth $38, because... the simplest explanation is that 5x5 kind of levels things out, giving more value to players who play as much as Bo but aren't nearly as good.

If you haven't subscribed yet, who can blame you?

Soon we will be posting our 2022 bids on the player pages for everyone to see.

Peter, at least in the first version of the Projector, isn't quite willing to pay $35 for Bo. Mike and I are more than willing. I predict Peter will come in our direction, given more time to think about it, which is something we have too much of.

Statcast xBA: .287

Statcast xSA: .480

The Forecaster gives him 34 xHR and 19 xSB and this comment: "Impeccable running game capable of more with more green lights."

The projection hedges on the running game (23 SB) but sees another 29 HR.

I would say that's the floor that people will be betting on. 

2020: EV 89.2 HardHit 41% Barrel 13% HR/FB 16% LA 12.0 Pull 37% Cent 32% Oppo 31%
2021: EV 91.4 HardHit 48% Barrel 10% HR/FB 19% LA 7.3 Pull 29% Cent 37% Oppo 34%