Austin Adams San Diego Padres

Age: 30 (May 05, 1991) | 6' 3" | 225lbs. | Throws: Right Minors: p-14
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
WAS AAA 2017 6 2 5 0 44 0 59.0 44 2 37 91 2.14 1.37 1.11 5.6 13.9 .358 n/a
WAS AAA 2018 1 4 9 0 41 0 46.1 47 1 20 78 3.50 1.45 1.26 3.9 15.2 .466 n/a
WAS NL 2018 0 0 0 0 2 0 1.0 1 0 3 0 0.00 4.00 2.50 27.0 0.0 .262 50/25/25 -0 -0
SEA AA 2019 1 0 0 0 2 0 2.0 0 0 2 5 0.00 1.00 0.50 9.0 22.5 0.00 n/a
2 teams AAA 2019 0 1 1 0 12 0 14.1 8 0 3 27 1.88 0.77 0.66 1.9 17.0 .373 n/a
SEA AL 2019 2 2 0 10 29 2 31.0 20 4 14 51 3.77 1.10 1.06 4.1 14.8 .305 49/19/32 4 5
WAS NL 2019 0 0 0 0 1 0 1.0 0 0 2 2 9.00 2.00 1.00 18.0 18.0 0.00 100/0/0 -0 -0
SD NL 2020 0 0 0 1 3 0 4.0 3 1 2 7 4.50 1.25 1.38 4.5 15.8 .318 50/13/38 -0 1
SD NL 2021 3 2 0 10 63 0 49.2 27 0 34 72 4.17 1.23 0.89 6.2 13.0 .284 35/22/43 3 5
Career 4yrs 5 4 0 21 98 2 86.2 51 5 55 132 4.05 1.22 0.99 5.7 13.7 .290 n/a
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sets ML record in the expansion era for hit batters in a season now 23 and counting

Howard Lynch LynchMob

I think it's weird that MLB.com is using ZIPS as if it is a projection system intended to project players. ZIPS is good at mathematically modelling the performance arc of players for multiple years ahead, but it really has no intelligence about Austin Adams, his ability to keep a job (5.7 walks per 9 would be well below his career average, but well above what he's done in limited time the last two years--most of it before he got hurt), or his chances of coming back from his injury. To say ZIP "conservatively" projects Adams for anything overlooks the whole way ZIPS works. 

I have him pitching better than ZIPS in a full season of innings, and say spend $1 on him, but that's going out on a limb. He's a sleeper, but most of them will fail.



Pedro Kroytesir kroyte
Feb 1

From MLB.com

Austin Adams looks like a bullpen sleeper
San Diego’s starting rotation has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove and now features five of the top 50 projected pitchers (Mike Clevinger would make it six, but he’s out for the year after having Tommy John surgery). A.J. Preller has not been nearly as active in the bullpen, with Kirby Yates leaving for Toronto and Trevor Rosenthal still a free agent. But maybe that’s for a good reason.

Not only does San Diego still have Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagán, but Adams looks like a potentially dominant arm. (To be clear, this is Austin L. Adams, the 29-year-old right-handed pitcher who has appeared for the Nationals, Mariners and Padres since 2017, and not Austin D. Adams, the 34-year-old righty who has appeared for Cleveland, the Twins and the Tigers since ‘14). Acquired by San Diego from Seattle in last August’s Austin Nola trade, this Adams barely pitched in the shortened 2020 season, after tearing his ACL in September ‘19. But he flashed big-time promise before that, riding a devastating slider to one of MLB’s top whiff rates and strikeout rates.

ZiPS is quite bullish on Adams for 2021. Although it conservatively projects him for 41 1/3 innings, Adams ranks fifth in K/9 rate (14.4) and 11th in ERA (3.05), despite a lofty BB/9 rate (5.7). Given that he has thrown just 42 big league innings in his career, Adams has a lot to prove, but if healthy he could prove to be a key bullpen piece for one of MLB’s most talented teams.

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Jan 31
Fangraphs: FB 16% FBv 93.3 EV 84.4 HardHit 38% HR/FB 33% LD%+ 58 FIP 4.44
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '20