Aaron Nola Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 29 (June 04, 1993) | 6' 2" | 200lbs. | Throws: Right P-33
Tm Lg YEAR W L SV Hld G GS IP H HR BB SO ERA WHIP Rating BB/9 SO/9 BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
PHI NL 2018 17 6 0 0 33 33 212.0 149 17 58 224 2.38 0.98 0.96 2.5 9.5 .261 51/19/30 38 35
PHI NL 2019 12 7 0 0 34 34 202.0 176 27 80 229 3.88 1.27 1.27 3.6 10.2 .304 50/21/30 13 17
PHI NL 2020 5 5 0 0 12 12 71.0 54 9 23 96 3.30 1.08 1.11 2.9 12.2 .302 50/23/28 27 29
PHI NL 2021 9 9 0 0 32 32 180.1 165 26 39 223 4.64 1.13 1.24 1.9 11.1 .327 41/19/41 8 14
PHI NL 2022 8 9 0 0 23 23 152.1 121 15 21 165 3.07 0.93 1.01 1.2 9.7 .286 43/18/39 23 22
Career 8yrs 75 58 0 0 194 194 1174.1 1009 133 318 1310 3.60 1.13 1.16 2.4 10.0 .304 n/a
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That sound you hear is the 'buy low' window being slammed shut.

Last two starts: 15 innings, 7 hits, 2 walks, just one run allowed, and 20 Ks.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Jun 27 '19

That's more like it: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 SO, 1 ER.

Before we get the stat feed...

Too late. We've got it.

And shocking to say, he's still a negative in 4x4 after 8 starts.

Alex Patton Alex
May 8 '19

It will be interesting to check this chart out five years from now.

April 11Ozzie Albies227/$35M
April 3David Bote265/$15M
April 2Ronald Acuña Jr.218/$100M
April 2German Márquez245/$43M
Mar. 31Xander Bogaerts266/$120M
Mar. 21Blake Snell265/$50M
Mar. 20Eloy Jiménez226/$43M
Mar. 20Brandon Lowe246/$24M
Mar. 19Alex Bregman255/$100M
Mar. 6José Leclerc254/$14.75M
Feb. 15Luis Severino254/$40M
Feb. 14Jorge Polanco255/$25.75M
Feb. 14Max Kepler265/$35M
Feb. 13Aaron Nola254/$45M
Alex Patton Alex
Apr 12 '19

Reminds me so much of peak Wainwright. Composed, multiple great pitches but the fastball doesn't knock your socks off. Wants to be as good as he can be. Very easy to watch - and that might sound obvious to say, but not every good pitcher is. 

(Alex, The Athletic is definitely worth it. I have no stake in it, though I have some friends there. But it's a tremendous value.) 

scott pianowski ballfour
Mar 6 '19

Okay, thanks to one of our members who does subscribe, here's what the Wise Guy says about Nola.


Aaron Nola: Systems take Nola’s 2016 into account, but his 2016 has nothing to do with Aaron Nola 2019. He got better in 2017, he got better still in 2018 and, now, here he is. To call him at a 3.55 ERA, as both Depth Charts and Steamer do, is flat wrong. Again THE BAT shows a little moxey with a more reasonable 3.20, but that too is high. We can quibble but I daresay 2.85 is the over/under here. And not one of the “Fangraphs Four” has Nola pitching 200 innings.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 20 '19

I keep plugging the Wise Guy at The Athletic. But do I actually subscribe to The Athletic?

I do not.

I mean, do I really care about the Whitecaps FC?

I do not.

But... but... I would like to read the rest of this article:


Alex Patton Alex
Feb 20 '19

His fastball velocity is below average? So what, says Doug Thorburn at BP.

... Nola’s changeup is the perfect EV complement to the fastball and curve, giving the right-hander the ability to hit every tick on the EV gun between 70 and 100 mph. He throws the change to batters on both sides of the plate, rather than the oft-used strategy of saving el cambio for batters who have the platoon advantage, while the curveball is a punisher of a finishing move, accounting for nearly half of his strikeouts.

The incredible range of effective velocity and Nola’s ability to command pitches allows him manipulate EV at will, which helps explain why he’s so hard to hit. One might be tempted to hand-wave his low hit rates and credit the defense behind him, but the extremely low exit velocity on every pitch type underscores the fact that opposing batters have struggled to square up his pitches. Of particular interest is that Nola’s toughest pitches to hit (fastball and curveball) are also the ones he throws most often.

With all of this talk about velocity—effective or otherwise—we can’t ignore the most impressive part of Nola’s stuff profile: movement. Consider that three of his four pitches have more arm-side movement than at least three-quarters of the league: his four-seamer (85th percentile), changeup (80th percentile), and sinker (79th percentile). His other pitch—the curve—has more lateral movement (Z=1.51) than 93 percent of the curveballs in the league.

Meanwhile, the drop on his pitches adds another dimension of dominance, particularly in the case of his changeup (Z=-1.89, 97th percentile). He doesn’t have a pitch that approaches a Z-score in the middle deviation of the bell curve, underscoring the novelty of his repertoire....


Alex Patton Alex
Jan 31 '19

Fifth highest earner, both leagues, in 5x5.

2018 Statcast Averages

NP: 1165

Pitch Type: Four-seam FB

Avg Pitch Speed: 92.8

Avg Spin Rate: 2,117

Avg Exit Velocity: 87.1

First pitcher -- by earnings last year -- who's fastball velocity is below theMLB average (93.2).

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '18
Fangraphs: WAR 5.6 FIP 3.01 SIERA 3.40 FB 50% FBv 92.4 HR/FB 11% Hard 25%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '18