Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Age: 30 (April 26, 1992) | 6' 7" | 282lbs. | Bats: Right OF-125 RF-25 DH-22 PH-3
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYY AL 2018 112 413 77 115 76 152 22 0 27 67 6 3 .278 .392 .528 15 31 .368 42/23/35 23 22
NYY AAA 2019 5 16 2 2 3 7 0 0 1 2 0 0 .125 .263 .312 16 37 .125 n/a
NYY AL 2019 102 378 75 103 64 141 18 1 27 55 3 2 .272 .381 .540 14 32 .360 40/27/32 17 17
NYY AL 2020 28 101 23 26 10 32 3 0 9 22 0 1 .257 .336 .554 9 28 .283 39/20/41 15 15
NYY AL 2021 148 550 89 158 75 158 24 0 39 98 6 1 .287 .373 .544 12 25 .332 41/23/36 33 30
NYY AL 2022 77 294 64 83 38 85 12 0 29 59 6 0 .282 .360 .619 11 25 .293 41/17/42 22 20
Career 7yrs 649 2362 466 654 399 818 105 4 187 425 30 12 .277 .383 .562 14 29 .339 n/a

MLB | Fangraphs | Baseball Reference | Baseball Prospectus
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The low price is based on all the time he missed in 2018, 2019, and 2020. When I made the price I wasn't aware of the vaccine situation. While I wouldn't blame someone who wanted Judge to pay the $30 it's going to take, I think there's just too much risk there. His average earnings the last four years are $21 a year. I'm even more comfortable with that in light of the possibility he'll miss playing time because of the vaccine. I mean the lack thereof.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Mar 16

All the Yankee loony tunes (sorry -- no politics) willl be out on the field on Opening Day. If the New York Post has anything to say about it.

https://nypost.com/covers/

Alex Patton Alex
Mar 16

Peter, is your price building in a discount for Judge potentially missing games due to Pancho's point below? Seems low but also makes sense if that's the case.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Mar 16

Unvaccinated players on the Yankees and Mets would not be eligible to play home games under the current COVID-19 rules in New York City. (Those
athletes would also be barred from playing in Toronto unless that
city's rules soon change. Asked about his own COVID-19 vaccination
status on Tuesday in Yankees camp, Aaron Judge said this: "I'm so
focused on getting through the first games of spring training so I think
we'll cross that bridge whenever the time comes. But right now, so many
things can change so I'm not really too worried about that right now."
Expect this story to grab even more headlines as Opening Day (April 7-8)
draws closer.)

Frank Smith Pancho
Mar 16

Statcast xBA: .306, tied for fifth in the majors.

2021 HardHit% has been corrected.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 6

The comment below is based on Batted Balls at Fangraphs. Here are the top five HardHit% in the Statcast section, defined as 95+ mph.

Judge 57.9

Salvador Perez 55.9

Fernando Tatis 55.6

Miguel Sano 55.6

Giancarlo Stanton 55.6

All big strong guys, all batting right.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 3

One batter in the majors had a higher Hard Hit% last year: Fernando Tatis (48%). On his balls in play, Judge had a better Medium% (45 to 37) and a much lower Soft % (9 to 15), but when all of this is added up, Tatis' slugging average on balls in play is .898, Judge's is .763. When you consider that Judge's whiff rate was also a little better than Tatis' (28%), it seems to me he should have had a better overall slugging average but it was more than 60 points lower. So he must have had an inordinate number of hard hit balls that were caught.

This even though he hit the ball to the opposite field (aiming for the short porch in Yankee Stadium?) way, way more than the year before.

Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21
2020: EV 92.2 HardHit 41% Barrel 11% HR/FB 32% LA 15.5 Pull 54% Cent 29% Oppo 17%
2021: EV 95.8 HardHit 58% Barrel 18% HR/FB 28% LA 11.6 Pull 36% Cent 37% Oppo 27%
Alex Patton Alex
Dec 16 '21