Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Age: 30 (April 26, 1992) | 6' 7" | 282lbs. | Bats: Right OF-125 RF-25 DH-22 PH-3
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYY AL 2018 112 413 77 115 76 152 22 0 27 67 6 3 .278 .392 .528 15 31 .368 42/23/35 23 22
NYY AAA 2019 5 16 2 2 3 7 0 0 1 2 0 0 .125 .263 .312 16 37 .125 n/a
NYY AL 2019 102 378 75 103 64 141 18 1 27 55 3 2 .272 .381 .540 14 32 .360 40/27/32 17 17
NYY AL 2020 28 101 23 26 10 32 3 0 9 22 0 1 .257 .336 .554 9 28 .283 39/20/41 15 15
NYY AL 2021 148 550 89 158 75 158 24 0 39 98 6 1 .287 .373 .544 12 25 .332 41/23/36 33 30
NYY AL 2022 146 539 125 170 97 163 27 0 60 128 16 3 .315 .421 .699 15 25 .343 37/19/44 53 47
Career 7yrs 718 2607 527 741 458 896 120 4 218 494 40 15 .284 .393 .584 15 29 .345 n/a
Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!

No - he will not likely PRODUCE close to this factoring in inflation.  He will produce what he produces.

What we are willing to bid on him is based on inflation.  If the inflation factor in the league is big enough, you may want to bid $30 on a guy projected to return $25.

So you've gotta ask "what do I really think Judge will earn this year?"  If he's healthy enough to get 527 ABs, Rotoman's calculation says $25.  So maybe $30 is the number (if healthy) if you have a 20% inflation factor.

But if the injury makes you think that $15 is more likely ... the 20% inflation factor pushes him to $18.  So you gotta decide how much risk there is right now

As for keep him for 3 years at the price ... that's another factor to consider.  If you think a healthy Judge next year would earn $25... but you think he's only going to earn $15 this year ... you might be willing to pay more than $15 to buy into next year's value.  Or considering inflation, might be willing to pay more than $18.

These kinds of risk-reward calculations are what makes roto ball a blast.

But remember - you're not bidding on inflation-adjusted production ... just inflation-adjusted auction value.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Mar 5 '20

Thoughts, please? I own him at $25 in a 5x5 only league. (I can keep him for three years also at this price.) Would you keep him if no one wants him in a trade? He probably will still produce close to this, factoring in inflation,  but clearly the health risks are there. Thanks. 

carter carter GypsySoul
Mar 5 '20

Imagine how much Manfred looks forward to delivering his verdict on the Red Sox.

Alex Patton Alex
Feb 19 '20

Fantasy Tweet to A-Rod:

If he got snookered, why are you congratulating Judge?

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11 '20

Tweet from A-Rod:

The best value signing in baseball. Congrats to the

and

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11 '20

Tweet from the New York Post:

Yankees, Aaron Judge avoid arbitration, agree to 1-year, $8.5M deal trib.al/o9ndjvB

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11 '20

Robert Arthur at Baseball Prospectus on a significant change in the way front offices look at performance:

Exit velocity has gone from practically irrelevant (in the first season it was available to the public) to about equal to OPS last year—a decent measure of a hitter’s overall offensive performance. Without the full 2019-2020 offseason on the books, I can’t say what has happened this winter, but it seems likely that exit velocity will eclipse OPS in the near future, if it hasn’t already.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10 '20