Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Age: 30 (April 26, 1992) | 6' 7" | 282lbs. | Bats: Right OF-125 RF-25 DH-22 PH-3
Tm Lg YEAR G AB R H BB SO 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BA OBP SLG BB% SO% BABIP G/L/F % $4x4 $5x5
NYY AL 2018 112 413 77 115 76 152 22 0 27 67 6 3 .278 .392 .528 15 31 .368 42/23/35 23 22
NYY AAA 2019 5 16 2 2 3 7 0 0 1 2 0 0 .125 .263 .312 16 37 .125 n/a
NYY AL 2019 102 378 75 103 64 141 18 1 27 55 3 2 .272 .381 .540 14 32 .360 40/27/32 17 17
NYY AL 2020 28 101 23 26 10 32 3 0 9 22 0 1 .257 .336 .554 9 28 .283 39/20/41 15 15
NYY AL 2021 148 550 89 158 75 158 24 0 39 98 6 1 .287 .373 .544 12 25 .332 41/23/36 33 30
NYY AL 2022 114 427 98 127 68 128 20 0 46 101 12 1 .297 .396 .667 14 25 .315 40/16/44 39 35
Career 7yrs 686 2495 500 698 429 861 113 4 204 467 36 13 .280 .387 .574 14 29 .341 n/a
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It's an interesting conundrum.  

WAR normalizes a player's individual contribution in an ideal world, notwithstanding the actual final final results for his team and his situational performance.  Judge did terribly in important situations compared to his other stats. The Yankees won fewer than expected. There is likely a link between those two factors. But WAR gives Judge credit as if his stats were normally distributed in Wins and Loses and leveraged, neutral, and irrelevant situations

Win Shares, on the other hand, credits players for luck factors not explained in the statistics, both positive and negative.  If a team wins 100 games, but only puts up a 95 game performance, that distributes an extra 5 Win Shares (or 15, because if I recall there are 3 WS for each Win) among him and his teammates.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Nov 19 '17

Bill James makes the rather obvious point you can't simply compare WAR to decide which player was more valuable or helped his team win more. It seems to me we've had this conversation here many times over the years. WAR isn't the final determinant, it is a way to normalize player valuations across times and leagues and positions.

I find it curious that James has kept quiet about WAR's limitation as concerns the conversion to Wins for 20 years, he says, which is roughly the amount of time since James's Win Shares introduction. Somebody said this earlier in another post: One of the problems with Win Shares was the way it somewhat arbitrarily adjusted player values to match the actual win totals. I mean, cool to try that, but it was a process which didn't make logical sense.

The Yankees finished down 11 games from their Pythagorean expectations because of their record in one run games. James blithely lays this on Judge because his situational hitting wasn't that great. And Judge may be to blame, he finished 36th in baseball in WPA among hitters.

But his Wins adjustment would also penalize Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner, even though the real problem was the bullpen, or a few errors or whatever. Unless you can figure out what went wrong, or what went right on overperforming team, the best way to evaluate player performance is the somewhat blunt and normalized stick of WAR or Patton $ or any tool that respects the math, as WAR does in relation to Runs produced or saved. And then to keep in mind what that tool measures, and what it doesn't, because that's going to change how the tool is used.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Nov 19 '17

Gotta work both sides on that one.  You, pitch.  You, stay in the box.

Mike Dean TMU2009
Oct 18 '17

Yes it was. And yes they did.

It sounds like MLB is going to institute a pitch clock next year. This will help, although a bigger problem IMO in terms of pace is batters stepping out of the box after almost every pitch. I was watching Game 6 of the '75 World Series recently on You Tube and it was striking how batters consistently stayed in the box.

Fixing the balls will obviously help but if the issue is balls in play I'm not sure how you adjust to or "fix" that without fundamentally changing the game. Since 2005, K% has increased by five percent. The spike in strikeouts has had at least as much of an impact in slowing down the game as the home run increase.

Mike Gianella MikeG
Oct 18 '17

Wasn't 1987 pretty obviously the rabbit ball? And didn't they quite blatantly recalibrate the following year?

Just three examples.

Home runs 1987, 1988:

Nokes 32, 16

Devo 24, 11

Wade Boggs 24, 5

Boggs, of course, was no rook. He hit eight the year before and 118 in an 18-year career.

I just hope that baseball has the good sense to recalibrate this winter. Games are too long. And far, far too seldom does the ball actually get put in play.

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 18 '17

The aforementioned 1987 Year of the Rookie

Top 5:

49, 32, 24, 22, 20x2

McGwire

Nokes

Devon White

Bo Jackson

Ellis Burks/Fred McGriff

That's a lot of career HR in the top 5 (considering it's really 6).

Mike Greenwell hit 328/386/570

Rafael Palmeiro only hit 14 as a rookie that year.

Kevin Seitzer had 15, but led the league in hits and had a slash of 323/399/470

Sam Horn (SABRmetric favorite) had 14 HR in only 158 ABs with a 589 SLG

Terry Steinbach didn't get a ROY vote despite good defense and a 284/349/463 line as a C.

In the NL Benito Santiago threw runners out without getting up into a standing position and hit 300/324/467

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Oct 18 '17

Top 5 homers by Rookies...

2015: 26, 26, 23, 22, 18

2016: 27, 26, 21, 20, 20

2017: 52, 39, 26, 26, 26

Alex Patton Alex
Oct 17 '17

Actually, the number that leaps out is that 12 rookies hit at least 10 homers in 1955 when there were only 16 teams. This was the year of Roberto Clemente, Ken Boyer and Elston Howard.  

Walter Shapiro WShapiro
Oct 17 '17

And, I thought 1987 was the year of the rookie.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Oct 17 '17

Realized I could easily let Excel count:





















1901 0
1902 0
1903 0
1904 0
1905 0
1906 1
1907 0
1908 0
1909 0
1910 0
1911 0
1912 0
1913 0
1914 3
1915 0
1916 0
1917 0
1918 0
1919 0
1920 2
1921 1
1922 2
1923 0
1924 2
1925 6
1926 2
1927 1
1928 5
1929 5
1930 6
1931 3
1932 1
1933 6
1934 5
1935 2
1936 4
1937 5
1938 8
1939 5
1940 6
1941 0
1942 6
1943 1
1944 1
1945 3
1946 6
1947 9
1948 4
1949 5
1950 11
1951 5
1952 7
1953 6
1954 8
1955 12
1956 8
1957 7
1958 10
1959 8
1960 7
1961 11
1962 15
1963 11
1964 11
1965 11
1966 10
1967 5
1968 1
1969 13
1970 8
1971 4
1972 11
1973 12
1974 4
1975 9
1976 3
1977 10
1978 3
1979 4
1980 4
1981 0
1982 12
1983 9
1984 12
1985 6
1986 12
1987 18
1988 5
1989 6
1990 9
1991 12
1992 4
1993 13
1994 8
1995 12
1996 8
1997 10
1998 14
1999 20
2000 13
2001 13
2002 13
2003 18
2004 15
2005 16
2006 19
2007 17
2008 13
2009 14
2010 13
2011 12
2012 12
2013 11
2014 14
2015 26
2016 21
2017 24
Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Oct 17 '17