Thread: Stage Four

It doesn’t exist. But we keep hoping.

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Thanks, Eugene. I do think that someone like my Ozuna question is for filling out my last few keepers more than a base and I agree that the high SB guys are going to get kept these days if they are close to the right price.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Sep 11

There are a lot of background questions that have to be answered first.  Is he your last potential keeper on your roster, filling your last keeper spot?  What savings do you have from your other keepers?  Does he fit a particular need that cannot be met in the auction?  For example - let's say you've got a guy who steals 30 bases.  All of the guys who steal 25+ will be kept, but you think his value is only $21.  Will the 30 steals move the needle for you in the category or is it just enough to make you a respectable 11th place?

These are all factors that cannot be considered in a vacuum.

My thought is that guys in the middle $15-24 are not the guys I want to spend on before the auction begins.  They are complementary pieces, not roster anchors.  I'd rather spend $45 as a keeper on a guy who's going to earn $35 (same inflation percentage), because that $35 guy has a scarcer set of skills and consolidated production.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Sep 11

I guess I look at it like this: Say you don't own Ozuna, and you go into the auction needing an OF that will earn around $21. Given inflation, what do you expect to pay for that $21 OF?

If you think getting that $21 earner is going to cost $27 given the inflation and what you know about the PCL, then probably keep him. If you think he'll cost $24, then it's a more difficult decision. I think there is a dollar value to having an available spot pre-auction, but that's more feeling than math.

I looked and I'll have several similar decisions next spring, and I'm pretty sure it'll come down to whether I have a good feeling about the player.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Sep 11

So let's put names on my example.

I own Marcell Ozuna at 24.
I expect him to earn 21 in 2019.
I expect him to go for 27 if he's tossed into the auction.

Given those numbers, is he a keeper or a cut.

This is in PCL (12 team NL only).

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Sep 11

I think you're making Seadogs question easier than it's meant to be ... I think he's asking this ... given a player with projected stats and league inflation that project to be worth $21, and other owners who you project will pay $27 for, do you keep said player at $24?

I believe what PK says, "such precision isn't always obvious" ...

Is the player young and you think he's got upside?

Is the team the player on projected to do well?

Does the player have health risks?

My bottom line: if I really believe he'll go for $27 and only earn $21, I let someone else make that mistake ... ie. I cut him ... AND ... the reality is ... I rarely "really believe" such a thing ... so ... if I like said player (ex. because he's young and got upside, or he's on a team that I want shares in, or is / isn't coming off an injury that I think is / isn't significant, etc), then I keep him, else I cut him.

In other words, I think the question boils down to ... how wide does the spread have to be before it dominates the decision?  In this scenario, the spread is only 3 (ie. I can keep him for just 3 over what my #s project him to earn) ... that's not enough to make the decision cut & dried ... so what is?  I dunno ... too many factors ... so it's case by case :-)

That process has served me well in my home league ... not so much in PCL ... YMMV ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Sep 10

If we're talking about 12 team, AL or NL only with a reasonable amount of keepers, inflation for hitters generally runs between 25% and 40%.

jeff merk jeffamerk
Sep 10

If you think a player will earn $21, but you have them at $24, and you
think they will go for $27 in your auction. Do you keep them or not?

How much will $21 earnings (for any player) cost you in the auction? If you think it's $27, then you keep him at $24.

Keith Prosseda andypro
Sep 10

Howard, I did exactly what you're talking about this year with Bregman. Kept him at 25, even though I thought he might not earn that. What I did know is he'd cost much more than 25 if I let him go, and I didn't want to give someone else the satisfaction of getting a $35 year from Bregman for a mere $29.

Then I traded him to Rotoman in a fire sale. He's getting the satisfaction while I watch Mookie Betts come back to earth.

Alex Patton Alex
Sep 10

Yes, trade to the guy who would pay $27. But such precision isn't always obvious.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
Sep 10

You have to try to trade him ... if you can't, you have to cut him ... otherwise, you don't really believe he will earn $21 ...

Howard Lynch LynchMob
Sep 10