Recent Comments

Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Starling Marte New York Mets

Buck doesn't like running much to begin with - seems Marte is going to take a bit hit everywhere - at age 33 I'd say the 2019 SB total is a pretty good over/under.

Another factor - Brandon Nimmo and his perennial 14% walk rate will likely be in the 2-hole behind him.  Why run Marte if there's a good chance he gets to stroll to 2B?

OTOH, given the guys behind him - Lindor/Alonso/Canha following Nimmo - that .350+ OBP makes 100+ runs pretty close to a lock. 

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 10
Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Statcast xBA: .258

Statcast xSA: .488

Quite surprising his xSA is so much lower than the actual. In fact, it's surprising the actual isn't higher. Stanton's HardHit% is tied for third in the majors with Tatis and Sano. His average EV ties for second with Guerrero (behind Judge). His 122.2 MaxEV was the hardest hit ball in baseball last year and went...

The Fangraphs stats don't tell us how far it went. But the next hardest hit ball (119.6 by Machado) was a Texas Leaguer by comparison.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Salvador Perez Kansas City Royals

Statcast xBA: .273

Statcast xSA: .554

Maybe one homer was taken away by a leaping catch at the fence?

Just kidding, but his actual results align very closely to the Statcast expectations.

His 55.9 HardHit percent was the second best in the majors, just behind Aaron Judge.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Tommy Pham San Diego Padres

Statcast xBA: .254.

Statcast xSA: .432.

Considering the quality and frequency of his contact, Statcast is saying the results weren't what they should have been. Voros (if he's still around) is saying Pham has had a two-year run of bad BABIP luck. The market will agree, especially in 5x5 leagues that count OBP.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
C.J. Cron Colorado Rockies

Statcast xBA: .261.

Statcast xSA: .480.

Someone should tell Statcast where he plays.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Cedric Mullins II Baltimore Orioles

We knew he was an overachiever but this much of an overachiever?

Statcast xBA: .269.

Statcast xSA: .440.

It will be interesting to see his ADP as we get close to the start of the season (whenever that -- never mind). He won't be available in any keeper leagues that acquire their players in auctions. Not one.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Elvis Andrus Oakland Athletics

Statcast xBA: .271.

Statcast xSA: .369.

In the Statcast formulas, he didn't quite get the results he deserved. In 2019 he had similar contact and walk rates, a lower line drive rate, and a much better BABIP. Bad luck last year, it would seem.

According to dWAR his defense wasn't what it used to be but it still was 1.6 runs above whoever else was out there to replace him.

But... he ended last season on crutches and begins next season at an age when shortstops play another position if they can hit and are put on waivers if they can't (and the team can).

Elvis will be in the clubhouse for another year. Depending on what else you have when you reach the end game, he's the perfect guy to add to your roster for a dollar, at most two. He'll be playing for a job in 2023.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Frank Schwindel Chicago Cubs

Statcast xBA: .265.

Statcast xSA: .424.

Here in a nutshell -- two nutshells -- is why Frank Schwindel was completely ignored in the XFL mixed-league auction early last month.

I have a hunch there will be some regret about that. He's not going to have a .364 BABIP again, of course not, and he's not going to watch 18 percent of his fly balls sail into the bleachers. But he will put the bat on the ball -- he always has -- and he'll get plenty of playing time on the same team that trotted out onto the field after the trade deadline.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Ty France Seattle Mariners

Statcast xBA: .267.

Statcast xSA: .427.

When the actual results are markedly better, the implication is he overachieved. He was lucky.

I look at his SO% and the way he hit to all fields and put him on my target list. I hope the people I'm bidding against when his name comes up think he was lucky.

And I'm not buying him as my first baseman.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Yulieski Gurriel Houston Astros

Some people are going to look at Yuli's age, some are going to look at his BABIP, some are going to look at both, and turn thumbs down.

I know this because I see two pans in Rotoman's Guide; I helped proofread the hitter section before the deadline a few days ago and now am enjoying the comments I didn't get to. Lucky me.

I would have made him a PATTON PICK for a very simple reason. Unless you plan to punt batting average, there are precious few hitters in either league you can count on to help you in that cat -- I mean, reallt help you -- and Yuli is one of them.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9
Corey Seager Texas Rangers

Do Carlos Correa and his Agent consider the Seager contract a blessing or a curse....or a bit of both? 

Tim McLeod tlmcleod
Jan 9
Alex Kirilloff Minnesota Twins

I hope Statcast is right. In my second league all of my trees have borne fruit. This is supposed to be the year for the Bureau.  Kirilloff and Wander up. Vlad and Eloy are hitting their stride and will be extended. Sano and Lowe in their final years at contracts well below par. On the pitching side I have Shane Baz and three cheap potential closers. It's the make or break window so I need guys like Kirilloff to perform.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 9
Manny Machado San Diego Padres

I'm sure San Diego's ballpark isn't doing him any favors. It's no Camden Yards.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
Jan 9

Statcast xBA: .290.

Statcast xSA: .517.

Handbook xBA: .271

Handbook xHR: 36

In other words, as good as Manny's season was, it could have been better.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9
Alex Kirilloff Minnesota Twins

Statcast xBA: .288.

Statcast xSA: .532.

Quite a difference between the Statcast expected outcomes and the actual outcomes.

The Handbook's xBA is much lower (.260) but the comment for Kiriloff is bullish. "xHR, exit velocity, Brl% speak to tantalizing power upside."

The Pull/Cent/Oppo numbers in the Statcast line make me bullish. 

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9
Starling Marte New York Mets

Right now we are looking at a surfeit of Statcast scans. That's because Colin, back from his conference, is trying to figure out how to replace the flawed scan that is at the bottom of the page.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9

Interestingly, the same player who is first in the majors in the Handbook's Net Gain Baserunning is first on the Forecaster's list of SB Overperfomers. xSB says he was meant to swipe a mere 20 bases.

And you know Buck looks at this stuff.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9
Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox

Nothing wrong with a 92.9 mph average exit velocity, but it's surprising when all the other Statcast metrics show him hitting the ball harder than the year before.

Statcast xBA: .286.

Statcast xSA: .553.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 9
Jesus Luzardo Miami Marlins

Will be an interesting battle for the 5th slot in Miami behind Alcantara, L√≥pez, Rogers, and Hernandez.  Luzardo has 2 options left - and it wouldn't shock me if the loser of the battle between he and Sixto ends up starting the season in Jacksonville.

It would seem that Luzardo - who had <80 innings in each of AA and AAA spread over multiple seasons - could use some more minor league time to figure out how to use that 95+ mph fastball - which had a massive negative value last season (-20 wFB). 

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 9
Corey Seager Texas Rangers

32+ mil a year for 10 years for a SS who has a significant injury history to date?

A lot of reasons to say thank you for your service ... and take the draft pick.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 9

Click on the name of a player (or thread) to go directly to that page and see the comment in context with the other comments.