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The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.
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Michael Chavis (2B) BOS - Jan. 17
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=736698
Chavis (oblique) said he feels good and is pleased with where his swing is at as he prepares for spring training, Stephen Hewitt of the Boston Herald reports.
ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Chavis was in town to accept the Red Sox's rookie of the year award from the Boston chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America. In 2019, the 24-year-old infielder split most of his time between second base and first base, two positions without a current full-time starter in place. It's likely he sees time at each position, and he should see an increase in plate appearances in 2020.
3 of the 5 are Catchers.
It's crazy they think Odor will remain in the lineup that far down the road. Even though he earns pretty well at our game, he's a much worse actual baseball player.
Always fun to put BA's predictions into a sealed envelope. The Rangers four years from now...
Here's how we project their lineup in 2023, with their 2023 age in parentheses.
Catcher: Sam Huff (25)
First Base: Ronald Guzman (28)
Second Base: Rougned Odor (29)
Third Base: Josh Jung (25)
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus (34)
Left Field: Nick Solak (28)
Center Field: Leody Taveras (25)
Right Field: Joey Gallo (29)
Designated Hitter: Willie Calhoun (28)
No. 1 Starter: Mike Minor (35)
No. 2 Starter: Hans Crouse (24)
No. 3 Starter: Joe Palumbo (28)
No. 4 Starter: Ronny Henriquez (23)
No. 5 Starter: Kolby Allard (25)
Closer: Demarcus Evans (26)
If he was any relation, BA would certainly say.
- 2. Sam Huff | C
BA Grade: 55. Risk: High
Track Record: Huff raised his profile in 2019, stamped with an MVP trophy from the Futures Game. The Rangers had him repeat low Class A Hickory to open the year, but he hit 15 home runs in his first 30 games to earn a bump to high Class A Down East, where he continued to show a power stroke.Scouting Report: Huff is a tall, physical catcher with two loud tools between his power and arm strength. It’s 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, with Huff having the strength, bat speed and leverage in his swing to drive the ball out to any part of the park. He has the raw power to hit 30-plus homers if everything clicks, but he’s susceptible to chasing off the plate and has trouble covering the inner third. As a result, he doesn’t walk much and his strikeout rate is high. Where Huff made significant strides in 2019 was behind the plate. At 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, he’s a big man for a catcher, but he frames pitches well and improved his footwork and blocking. He did an outstanding job of shutting down the running game with his plus arm, throwing out 48 percent of basestealers.The Future: Now that Huff looks like a true catcher, there’s less demand on his bat, though he will still need to improve his plate discipline. He heads to Double-A Frisco in 2020.
Tool Grades: Hit: 40. Power: 70. Run: 40. Fielding: 45. Arm: 60.
The boxscore courtesy of BP (there's even mention of Wally Backman):
You have seen what this looks like if you’ve spent any time online today; the white-noisy rush of one garbage-heavy wave crashing to shore after another might have been audible even if you hadn’t. Slow-motion videos of José Altuve clutching his jersey while rounding the bases after a game-winning homer were circulated and parsed online. A photo of Josh Reddick doing a postgame interview was given the squiggly red circle treatment around what was either tape securing a wire to his chest or a piece of celebratory confetti; Reddick’s wife Jett heatedly insisted it was the latter and signed off with #youallareidiots. A Twitter account purporting to be Beltrán’s niece perfunctorily apologized to her tio, tweeted the details of what it said was a previously unrevealed Astros cheating methodology, then deleted the tweets and then the whole account. It was shortly revealed not to have been Beltrán’s niece at all; Gary Sheffield’s son later posited that it was instead the anonymized account of a former Astros player. Mark Teixeira said Beltrán should be fired for his role in the scheme and Carlos Gomez said Teixeira was a sucker for saying it. Jessica Mendoza, an ESPN analyst who also has a vaguely proscribed consulting job with the Mets, suggested on the radio that the real tragedy of the metastasizing cheating scandal was all the snitching-ass snitches who started it, then tried to clarify it in a statement that mostly just restated the original with more of a Be That How It May tone. This is before we even get to the inevitable Bob Nightengale column. So: not great, really.
RBI % (explained under Nelson Cruz) is not kind to Grichuk.
"The major league leader in runs NOT driven in was Randal Grichuk of Toroto, who drove in 80 runs but had an RBI percentage of .308. He missed 179.5 opportunities -- the highest total in the major leagues."
The average RBI % all hitters with 150 AB last year was .326. Grichuk was reasonably close to that but he had far more than the average number of opportunities.
Top RBI %, both leagues (min. 150 AB)
Nelson Cruz .486
Mike Trout .472
Will Smith .467
Mitch Garver .464
Christian Yelich .463
RBI % is a metric that Bill James rolled out 11 years ago and hasn't caught on.
"Players are charged with missed opportunities whenever they make an out without driving in a run."
All opportunities are not created equal.
Full-fledged opportunity (1.00): runner left at third with two out.
Big opportunity (.70): runner left on third with two out or runner left on second.
Small opportunity (.40): runner left on first.
Very small opportunity: no runner on; the only one you can drive in is yourself.
Clearly, to rank at the top of this list of all hitters in both leagues with at least 150 AB, Nellie had to come through with runners on and runners in scoring position, and he did.
In 205 AB with runners on, he slashed .341/.441/.634
In 106 AB with runners in scoring position, he cut down on his swing: .368/.478/.575.
Ain't recency bias a wonderful thing?
Especially for an Adeiny Hechaverria, who we've had a lot of time to learn who he is.
Last year at the end of April (114 PAs), Yandy Diaz had a WAR of 1.1 ... at the end of the season (347) it was 1.5 ...
Tied with Diaz at 1.1 WAR on May 1 last year? Alex Bregman.
That said - hell yeah if I'm a team like the Braves whose making a serious run in 2020 I'd drop $1 mil on a Hechavarria. Without even expecting lightning in a bottle to ever happen again.
I'm not sure what to make of WPA but anytime you find yourself on a list that includes Bregman, Rendon and Arenado...
Play Index Spotlight: Adeiny Hechavarria
Journeyman shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria was released by the New York Mets August 14 and signed by the Braves two days later. He proceeded to provide a surprising boost for the Braves in the final stretch and apparently impressed them enough to stay on for another year. When you look at the final 39 games of the 2019 season, Hechavarria provided 1.7 Win Probability Added in just 70 plate appearances for the Braves. That's in the top 5 of WPA among all players in the final 39 games of the 2019 season:
| Player | G | PA | OPS | WPA | Tm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 39 | 168 | 1.208 | 2.0 | HOU |
| Anthony Rendon | 37 | 167 | 1.032 | 1.9 | WSN |
| Starlin Castro | 39 | 162 | .973 | 1.7 | MIA |
| Nolan Arenado | 34 | 148 | 1.160 | 1.7 | COL |
| Adeiny Hechavarria | 24 | 70 | 1.039 | 1.7 | ATL |
| Tommy Edman | 37 | 160 | .999 | 1.5 | STL |
| Ji‑Man Choi | 34 | 130 | .969 | 1.5 | TBR |
| Nelson Cruz | 33 | 148 | 1.023 | 1.5 | MIN |
He's not a groundball pitcher and yet...
GIDP Induced
Ivan Nova 30
Mike Minor 23
GIDP Per Nine IP
(minimum 162 IP)
Ivan Nova 1.44
Brad Keller 1.20
Mike Minor 0.99
Batting second didn't help him but this didn't either.
Lowest RBI % - NL
(minimum 502 PA)
Lorenzo Cain .248
Adam Eaton .270
Joey Votto .271
Shortest Avg Home Run - NL
(min 10 over the wall)
Jesse Winker 378
Tucker Barnhart 380
Matt Wieters 385
Kurt Suzuki 386
Tommy Edman 387
-- Bill James Handbook
Signed a one-year deal with the Giants for $4 million.
I wonder who else was in the bidding?
Signed a one-year deal with the Braves for $1 million.
Playing in 84 games, he reached a career-high in round-trippers.
His hard contact rate is up 10% over the last 2 years.....that's a good sign. He's got 2 things working against his having a breakout.....his GB rate will temper his HR total and Citi Field.....666 Home OPS(.621 career) vs .837 on the road(.792 career).
"If true" being the active phrase here. MLB says they investigated that precise claim and found no substantiation.
As I said before, the widespread vitriol against the Astros is a bit shocking to me. I am qyite sure that as a kid, I hated the Yankees more, simply for the unfair financial advantage they had. Maybe the haters just have better ways to get attention in 2020?
Geez, the Astros still have only ONE WS title in their existence.
They should hire Wally Backman to replace him
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Bobby Dalbec (3B) BOS - Jan. 17
https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=736697
Dalbec is entering spring training with the goal of making Boston's Opening Day roster, Christopher Smith of MassLive.com reports.
ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: At first inspection, it looks like Dalbec could use more seasoning at Triple-A Pawtucket, but the Red Sox have an open slot at first base. He entered the organization as a third baseman but split time at both corner infield positions in 2019. Michael Chavis (oblique) is the current frontrunner, while the team could add an established first baseman. The 6-foot-4, 234-pound Dalbec, who was added to the 40-man roster during the offseason, slashed .239/.356/.460 with 27 home runs, 19 doubles, two triples and 73 RBI combined in 105 games at Double-A Portland and 30 games at Pawtucket. Seven of those 27 homers came in 123 plate appearances for the PawSox.