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Welcome! You are invited to wander around and read all of the comments that have been posted here at Patton & Co., but as soon as you register you can see the bid limits that Alex, Peter and Mike propose for each player, and you can post your own comments. Registering is free, so please join us!
Omar Narvaez Tampa Bay Rays

One of the many players who's stats in a 60-game season have to be tossed out the window. Because of that season, you can get him for a buck or two.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Tony Kemp Oakland Athletics

Fastcast xBA: .245

Fastcast xSA: .339

Results stats seriously better. His HardHit% ranks 358th among the 362 batters who had at least 200 plate appearances. As we wait out the lockout, he's at the top of the A's depth chart at second base.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Ronald Torreyes Philadelphia Phillies

Fastcast xBA: .231

Fastcast xSA: .299

Lowest HardHit% of all batters with 200+ PA.

His 71 OPS+ might have been the lowest. His career OPS+ is 76 and before he's 30 he has seven years towards his pension.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Jake Fraley Seattle Mariners

The next stuff from Rob Rains at BP could have been posted under Harold Castro or Matt Chapman, but hiding it here makes their charts, uh, better.

Batting Records Not As Galore As They Seem! 

OK, I was a little disingenuous with a lot of those graphs. I excluded 2020. There are really good reasons to do so: Pitchers didn’t bat, teams played only nine opponents in the regular season, preseason training was irregular, and, of course, there were only 60 games. In general, I’m in favor of ignoring all aspects of 2020 except the postseason. But if you’re a stickler...

We didn’t set a record for strikeout percentage, despite the universal DH in 2020.

No new record for fewest balls in play, either.

Those wild pitch and stolen base percentage records are good, though.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11

Baseball Forecaster xSB: 25

The xSB formula (starting on p. 31) attempts to quantify Skill and Will, based on how fast the player is, how often he tries to steal and so forth. Clearly the Forecaster thinks Fraley is very fast.

Actually, in limited playing time, Fraley showed that he was very willing to swipe a base and he had great success.

So did a lot of players. Have success, that is. The Will was as low as it's been in the last half-century.

Rob Mains at BP:

Here’s one way in which the game was arguably more exciting.

Granted, there weren’t a lot of stolen base attempts. There were 0.61 attempts per team per 27 outs, the fewest since 1964. But we’re not in record territory. (That would be 1953, 0.49 per team per 27 outs.) The success rate was, thanks to the efficiency of modern baserunning.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Matt Chapman Oakland Athletics

Statcast xBA: .207

Statcast xSA: .414

With such a low LD% and high SO%, I'm surprised his xBA isn't lower.

Right down to Launch Angle and Pull%, Chapman is the poster boy of the modern-day hitter. Rob Mains shows what it all adds up to in an article today:

The addition of extra-inning zombie runners and seven-inning doubleheaders have made per-game figures unreliable for the past two years. As I’ve written, we’ve redefined what constitutes a game the past two years. So for the next graph, I’m using a per-27-outs measure.

Take at bats, subtract strikeouts and homers, and add sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies, and you’ve got balls in play. But in 2021 baseball, you had fewer than ever.


Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Harold Castro Detroit Tigers

Statcast xBA: .286

Statcast xSA: .410

Of all hitters who went to the plate at least 200 times last year, Harold has the highest LD%. He had a lower than average K rate, so it's a little surprising Statcast doesn't give him a higher xBA.

The fact that his K rate was slightly better than average might be the bigger point.

From Rob Mains today at Baseball Prospectus:

Batters struck out in over 23 percent of plate appearances in 2021. That’s never happened before.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Seth Beer Arizona Diamondbacks

Seth put six balls in play last year. Three of them were timed at 95+ miles per hour leaving the bat. But his average exit velocity wasn't even 89 miles per hour. Three of the balls were pulled. One went to center. Three went to right. Three were line drives, three were fly balls. One went over the fence. One was a double.

I'm trying to picture the three batted ball events that weren't hard hit.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Josh Donaldson Minnesota Twins

I bought Donaldson for $18 last year, and I agree with your injury risk assessment, Alex. He got hurt on his first AB, and I was on pins and needles with him the whole year. He had several injuries, despite the Twins babying him at every turn. It really was a miracle that he played as many games as he did. He's a fine player - still - when he plays, but I can tell you from experience that he's hard to trade due to the injury perception. So if you buy Josh, be prepared to sweat out every sprint on the bases for the entire year. 

Scott Shea SJS
Jan 10
Starling Marte New York Mets

My biggest concern here is that Showwalter's 2018 Orioles were slightly below league average for SB, but they did have a high SB steal percentage. So maybe he let's Marte run?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jan 10
Garrett Cooper Miami Marlins

Statcast xBA: .268

Statcast xSA: .454

It's not clear, looking at his Statcast stats, why Statcast thinks his actual batting average and slugging average were higher than they should have been. Only 17 hitters with 200+ PA had a higher HardHit%.

Could be that so many of his hard-hit balls were grounders. There's no question, based on his BABIP, that a lot of his grounders eluded infielders.

He was having a rip-roaring July (.351/.490/.622 in 14 games) when Travis Jankowski ran into his elbow.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Josh Donaldson Minnesota Twins

Statcast xBA: .266

Statcast xSA: .533

In the Statcast theory, he should have hit almost 20 points higher and should have slugged more than 50 points higher.

In the HardHit% rankings, he's No. 17 among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances. His EV ties for third highest (with Evan Longoria), his Barrel% ties for 13th (with Mitch Garver). Hence the high expectations.

I have to admit I'm one of the people Mike G is referring to in his pick for the Guide. Even now I worry about Donaldson calf injury. Or, if not that, something else is going to put him on the shelf.

But I agree with Mike, and Statcast, that he should not be underestimated.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Yasmani Grandal Chicago White Sox

Statcast xBA: .255

Statcast xSA: .497

Ties Votto and Buxton at No. 14 in the HardHit% rankings, all hitters with 200+ PA.

It's interesting, quite unusual, that his xBA is higher than his actual BA, his xSA is lower.

An ailing knee might explain why he hit only .188 in the first half. After surgery on his left knee, he hit .337, slugged .673 in 30 games.

After the season, he again went under the knife to take care of his right knee.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Joey Votto Cincinnati Reds

Statcast xBA: .271

Statcast xSA: .582

Tied for 14th highest HardHit% among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances; all but two (Byron Buxton and Mitch Garver) have higher average velos.

Somewhat paradoxically, the Bill James Handbook estimates he would have hit 42 homers, all things being equal.

The Handbook predicts he'll have 36 xHR this year and actually hit 31.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins

Statcast xBA: .292

Statcast xSA: .594

Tied with two others for the 14th highest HardHit% among all hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.

The fact that he only had 254 is the Byron Buxton story.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels

Statcast xBA: .264    

Statcast xSA: .597

Among all hitters with at least 200 PA, his HardHit% ranks a surprisingly low 13th. 

Only two batters, Giancarlo Stanton and Manny Machado, had a higher maxEV last year; it's surprising anyone did.

The only one with a higher Barrel% was Mike Zunino (24).

When the ball left his bat, it averaged 94 mph,

When the ball left his hand (throwing a fastball), it averaged two mph faster.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Mitch Garver Minnesota Twins

Statcast xBA: .536

Statcast xSA: .252

12th highest HardHit% among all hitters with at least 200 plat appearances. Probably why his expected slugging average is a little higher.

His expected batting average might be a little lower -- a hair lower -- because of the high BABIP.

But let's not split hairs: Garver seems primed for a good season. Possibly very good. After missing virtually all of June and most of July, he pounded out twelve homers in July, August and September. 

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Starling Marte New York Mets

Benchmarks, by the way, has the averages for all the Statcast metrics that kick off the player pages.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10

I am eliminating the surfeit of scans as they come to light in various comments.

Marte's HardHit%, Statcast version, is the same as the average of all players last year with at least 200 plate appearances. His average exit velocity is below average.

Maybe that's why he gets five pans and nary a pick in the forthcoming Guide.

One example (one of the shorter ones)

LEIBOWITZ PAN: Mets paying long-term for
a career year they will likely never see repeat.
Home run output has stabilized in the low 
to mid-teen HR/FB level. BABIP was out of
context with career and will decline. 

The Forecaster pans him big-time, calling him the biggest SB Overperformer in baseball in 2021.

Even Statcast pans him:

Statcast xBA: .270

Statcast xSA: .422

To which the market is going to say phooey in auctions this April, as well it should.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10
Pete Alonso New York Mets

Statcast BA: .267

Statcast SA: .529

In his age 27 season, it's going to be very hard for him to have career year. But all the tea leaves point to a great year.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 10

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