Comments

The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.

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J.D. Martinez Boston Red Sox

And Bregman wears #2 because he is bitter that he wasn't the #1 pick.  If I recall, it was considered a toss up between him and Dasnby Swanson for #1.  The Astros also got Kyle Tucker with the #5 pick in that draft.  Benintendi went #7.  Looks like a pretty weak return in the 1st round for most teams.

Baseball Reference 2015 Draft

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed

MLB Trade Rumors has a piece today on JD Martinez - notably how the Astros cut him loose after the 2013 season, and he immediately became a star for the Tigers in 2014.

Bad for Astros ... except.

Astros used the #2 pick in the 2015 draft to acquire Alex Bregman ... 

Chances they'd have had a shot at Bregman had they drafted a few picks later?  Almost none.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope

Peter ... going back to this "Doug, who bought the third most, finished ninth."

Did Doug lead in any categories? (i.e. did he blow money in those categories that didn't help him gain points?).
If not then it might call into question your assumptions on pricing.

Kent Ostby Seadogs

Oh my gosh. A smoking gun!

https://nypost.com/2020/05/19/mlb-thinks-email-is-smoking-gun-in-salary-fight-with-players/

It's dismaying that both sides are spending their energy issuing press releases. They should say simply that they are working on the problem "in good faith" and then go into a virtual room, lock the door, and get to work.

The details are incredibly complicated but the issue isn't. What kind of revenue can be expected playing half a season in empty stadiums? How should it be divided?

The answer about revenue will be a guesstimate. The owners will have to take some risk there. Lord know the players are taking risk by going out onto the field. 

Alex Patton Alex
Reynaldo Lopez Chicago White Sox

Reynaldo Lopez (P) CHI-A - May. 19

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740981

Lopez said mental lapses were what caused him to drop to the bottom of the White Sox's rotation, Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Lopez said a bad pitch or outing would linger, and he couldn't shake it easily. That led to the league's second-worst ERA (5.38) among starters and a 10-15 record. After being one of the steadiest pitchers on the staff in 2018, Lopez entered 2020 spring training as the projected fifth starter behind Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Dylan Cease. While the right-hander feels his approach and preparation need to be better in 2020, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn thought the pitcher's issues stemmed more from mechanics. "Sometimes these guys don't climb progressively with each and every start or each and every month," said Hahn. "There's setbacks and there needs to be adjustments, not just from the mechanical side, which is probably what plagued Lopey more than anything in the first half, but sometimes from the approach and preparation side." If mechanical adjustments lead to improved results, then that may be the elixir that improves Lopez's mental preparedness. 

Alex Patton Alex

According to this article in The Athletic, those rules haven't been decided yet.  It does say the Rangers don't anticipate anyone on the taxi squad unless they are major league ready, so the prospects a couple years off are unlikely to be included.

John Thomas Roll2

That's interesting. The tiers in ERA are a few teams battling around 3.00 and many more teams at 3.75 to more than 4.00. Fred taking Astacio has a ton of impact in K and Wins and maybe cost him one ERA point. I made a similar calculation when I took David Cone earlier, but I needed Astacio, too.

I swapped my Steve Karsay for Fred's Pedro Astacio and gained a half point. Not a big difference. But managing how ERA and RATIO points are swapped for quantatives is clearly a big part of the game.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman

Best explanation I have seen thus far as to why the players took the revenue sharing proposal as a non-starter:

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/five-reasons-why-mlb-players-are-objecting-to-owners-50-50-revenue-split-for-2020-season/?ftag=SNL-04-10aaa0b&ET_CID=128998&ET_RID=31333479

And I hate Boras but he is right about privatizing gains and socializing losses.

In my opinion, the players should have simply said, "ok owners, as soon as we have received completely transparent and FULL revenue numbers, we will talk to you about your proposal."  Full revenues would include ALL revenue.  That is the ultimate bluff call, as I think more than half the owners would not even share those numbers with their fellow owners, let alone the players.

I am pessimistic about completion of even a partial season.  If it starts, it may end abruptly.  How much would THAT suck for us fantasy owners?

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
May 19

My first observation is ... the team that drafted the most hitting$ won ... so perhaps everyone else undervalued hitters, to some extent?

Peter has Pedro Astacio as worth -$20 ... Alex's spreadsheet says +$15 ... that seems a difference to explore ... given that he was on the team that won (Fred) ... Fred got value from Astacio's 17 Wins and 210 Ks despite his 5.04 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.


Howard Lynch LynchMob
May 19

Okay, one more. I added a NET column. This show the total profits and losses based on their spot in the auction. I'm not sure if this adds anything, but it does help show one pertinent fact. Players bought 35 negative valued players for -$226, which definitely changes the equation.

If you want to look at this data you can download the excel file here.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

Here is the same chart, sorted by standings order, with the points for pitching and hitting included.


Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

So, I mapped my player prices to the players each team drafted in the 1999 retro draft. The winner, Fred, bought the second most value, and I bought the fourth most (I finished third), but Dean, who bought the most finished sixth, and Doug, who bought the third most, finished ninth. And Jeff, who finished second, bought more talent than only three teams.

Not sure what that means.

Peter Kreutzer Rotoman
May 19

Good question how they are going to play it (assuming they play). Is there going to be a daily taxi to/from the taxi squad?

If there is, doesn't the auction almost have to include the taxi squad? Anyway, another good question.

Alex Patton Alex
May 19
Victor Caratini Chicago Cubs

Victor Caratini (C) CHI-N - May. 18

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740968

Caratini could work as the Cubs' DH if MLB adopts a universal DH for a shortened 2020 season, Will Laws of SI.com reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Kyle Schwarber is perhaps the first name that comes to mind as a DH for the Cubs, but he's improved his defensive play to the point where Chicago may elect to keep him in left field. That could open things up for Caratini as the team looks to get his bat in the lineup along with No. 1 catcher Willson Contreras. Caratini's DH case would be bolstered if the team kept three catchers, which would provide added insurance behind Contreras and take some burden off Caratini as a defensive option. 

Alex Patton Alex
May 19
Tommy La Stella Los Angeles Angels

It's not just the jump in HR/FB, which goes without saying. A big jump in Hard %, despite slight decline in LD %. The decline in Pull % is another good sign.

And then there's the big decline in SO %.

It's all quite amazing. Why didn't I pick him in the Guide?

Alex Patton Alex
May 19

Tommy La Stella (2B) ANA - May. 18

https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.php?id=740972

La Stella is expected to start at second base against right-handed pitchers if a 2020 season takes place, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: There had been murmurs of a potential move to first base for La Stella, but manager Joe Maddon quashed that idea and indicated that he wants the veteran to start at second base against righties. That leaves David Fletcher to man the position versus southpaws, though his positional versatility should keep the contact specialist's bat in the lineup on a near-everyday basis. 

Alex Patton Alex
May 19

So here is the question of the week (assuming there is baseball).

For the auction, are Taxi Squad players up or down? My take would be that you have an active roster and a Taxi Squad and the Taxi Squad would be "minor leaguers" (i.e. draft eligible, but not auction eligible).  Things get dicey if you do day of active-rosters (which my league does) and someone like Luis Castillo is down on the Taxi Squad because he just pitched a long game. I assume that being sent to the Taxi Squad will force you to stay there for an extended period of time.

Kent Ostby Seadogs
May 19

After three of these retro drafts, the answer to Howard's question -- what is the best/preferred draft position? -- is, there doesn't seem to be one. Here's the finish of the 1999 retro (order of pick in the first round):

1. Fred (10)

2. Jeff (8)

3. Peter (2)

4. Eric (4)

5. Paul (9)

6. Dean (1)

7. Derek (7)

8. Justin (6)

9. Doug (5)

10. Ron (11)

11. Al (12)

12. Scott (3)

1982 and 1990 were similar.

Alex Patton Alex
May 18

My company's president and owner, after a downturn some years back, raged in a meeting that he would lose a million dollars that year.

As our comptroller was pleased to explain after a few beers in a very small, select group, that meant that the owner would make a million dollars less than he made the year before.  He would still be in the high-single digits in millions.  It would just be a million less than the year before.

Mike Dean TMU2009
May 18
Larry Herndon Detroit Tigers

I know he wasn't one of the best players on the great Tigers teams in 1984 and 1987, but I liked him for some reason.  Maybe it was his 1982 Topps card featuring him on the Giants with his glove open in the OF.  Just looked cool.

Eugene Freedman EugeneFreed
May 18

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