Recent Comments

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Omar Narvaez Tampa Bay Rays

After 2021, he's bumped up to the 4-6 dollar catcher range, methinks.

Phil Ponebshek Texpope
Jan 11
Eduardo Rodriguez Detroit Tigers

Statcast xERA: 3.55

Forecaster xERA: 3.70

Both formulas make strong statements that his ERA was unlucky. The Forecaster might be looking at his BABIP; I'm not sure if Statcast does.

The Tigers looked at a young pitching staff with a lot of promise and kept bidding until they got him while other teams were trying to hold onto their money in November.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Yu Darvish San Diego Padres

Statcast xERA: 3.29

Forecaster xERA: 3.74

Statcast thinks Darvish's actual ERA should have been almost a full run better. So does everyone who owned him.

I realize he's got a huge assortment of pitches but shouldn't he throw that fastball more often?

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Tyler Anderson Seattle Mariners

Statcast xERA: 4.21

Forecaster xERA: 4.75

What's this? A soft-tosing lefty that Statcast likes (his actual combined ERA last year was 4.53).

The Forecaster is not impressed. 

As a batter, Anderson's HR/FB would be very impressive if he had hit more than one fly ball. In 39 AB last year, all but two with the Pirates, he slashed .103/.125/.179.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Carlos Correa Houston Astros

The biggest concern for me with Correa is how many suitors will he really have?  I get how good he is, but who has $300 Million to spend on a SS other than the Yankees?

Kent Ostby Seadogs
Jan 11
Marco Gonzales Seattle Mariners

Statcast xERA: 5.06

Forecaster xERA: 5.00

It seems the fomulas don't like soft-tossers, either.

If you held onto him right up to the All-Star break, congratulations, He was 9-1 with a 2.70 ERA Post All-Star.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Cole Irvin Oakland Athletics

Statcast xERA: 4.99

Forecaster xERA: 4.90

The Forecaster's projection: actual ERA 4.38, xERA 4.83.

Irvin's ERA at the All-Star break was 3.65.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Marcus Stroman New York Mets

Statcast xERA: 4.33

Forecaster xERA: 3.65

You have to think the Cubs looked at the Statcast expected ERA, at least, before they signed him. That's not to say they don't have their own in-house formula.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Frankie Montas Oakland Athletics

Statcast xERA: 3.95

Forecaster xERA: 3.73

Both "should be" ERAs are saying Montas's ERA "should have been" quite a bit higher.

Do the formulas weight the same component stats? I would think not. The Forecaster's formula (shown on p. 39) considers thing like hits, walks and strikeouts per nine innings -- the bread-and-butter things -- whereas Statcast looks at Stacast things, like exit velocity and Barrel%.

That's my assumption about Statcast. I don't actually know what the formula is; it might be proprietary.

Anyway, I'm going to start some pitcher comments with these two expected ERAs and see if there are interesting differences. See if any light is shed.

FIP, of course, is another "should be" ERA and it just so happens that Frankie's FIP in 2021 exactly matches his actual ERA.

Pure coincidence, I guess.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Ty Buttrey Los Angeles Angels

Cabin fever.

Ty Buttrey (P) - Jan. 10

Buttrey announced Sunday that he's hopeful to resume his baseball career in 2022, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.

ROTOWIRE RECOMMENDS: Shortly before Opening Day last season, Buttrey said he was planning to retire from professional baseball, citing personal reasons. After a year away from the game, the 28-year-old has apparently changed his stance. The owner of a career 4.30 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over 115 appearances, Buttrey shouldn't have much trouble securing a minor-league deal, at the very least.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Jack Mayfield Los Angeles Angels

A fluke for sure since he only hit 10 home runs.  Not sure where the 20 is coming from, Alex.

Mike Landau ML-
Jan 11
Corey Seager Texas Rangers

If I were Correa, I'd consider it a good thing.  To me it sets $300+ million as a floor for offers.  Any team that thinks of coming to him with an offer below that knows that they won't even be taken seriously now.  He may not top Seager, but he certainly won't be far below.

Bob Elam Bob-in-TX
Jan 11
Frank Schwindel Chicago Cubs

I think his Aug/Sept splits are interesting. Either changed his approach or was pitched a lot differently in September


BB% 7.7/6.0

K% 19.2/11.9

LD% 25/17.4

FB% 42.1/34.9

GB% 32.9/47.7

InfFly 12.5/18.4

HH% 34.2/31.2

SoftH% 18.4/31.2

van wilhoite LVW
Jan 11
Chipper Jones Atlanta Braves
Willians Astudillo Minnesota Twins

Fastcast xBA: .250

Fastcast xSA: .360

One of the few players who's actual batting average goes one way and actual slugging average goes the other, compared to what Statcast expects, but that's Astudillo.

Fangraphs is really rough on him in the other aspects of his game. BsR -3.5,  Def -4.4 and so forth.

He needs to boost his LD% if he wants to stay in the big leagues.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Dylan Carlson St. Louis Cardinals

Fastcast xBA: .243

Fastcast xSA: .397

The reason to take the Fastcast expected stats seriously is they (probably) don't pay any attention to BABIP or other results stats that can be heavily dependent on luck, good or bad. If you hit the ball 95 miles per hour or faster, it boosts your HardHit%, simple as that.

Carlson's HardHit% took a nose dive last year.

The fact that his EV went up almost a full mph? A mystery. Makes no sense.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Jurickson Profar San Diego Padres

Fastcast xBA: .236

Fastcast xSA: .319

His expected stats were the same as his actual, which were not what we expected.

I don't see any reason he can't earn $15 this year in his super-utility role, nor do I see any reason to hope for more.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Nick Ahmed Arizona Diamondbacks

Fastcast xBA: .205        

Fastcast xSA: .286

As disappointing as he was, Statcast is implying it could have been a lot worse. Almost any way you look at it -- EV, HardHit%, Barrel% -- he didn't hit the ball as well as he did the year before, when he still wasn't great but seemingly was lucky (BABIP).

The only bright spot that I see is he hit a lot more balls to center and right. His 2018 season is doable if he plays that much.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Jack Mayfield Los Angeles Angels

Fastcast xBA: .186

Fastcast xSA: .311

In other words, Statcast thinks those 20 round-trippers are a fluke and so do I. EV, HardHit% and Barrel% are all weak, far below the league averages of all players with at least 200 PA (shown in Benchmarks). 

10-for-10 in SB? Another fluke.

Nominate him before the end game to get some money off the table.

If everybody is thinking the same way, for a buck he's just fine.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11
Kevin Newman Pittsburgh Pirates

He doesn't hit the ball hard very often (346 of the 362 batters with 200+ PA had a better HardHit%) and he doesn't hit the ball hard (348 had a higher EV), but he hits the ball often and he hits it on the ground. With better BABIP luck, he's at or slightly better than the league batting average. For your middle infielder in the end game, you could do a lot worse.

Alex Patton Alex
Jan 11

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