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The last twenty comments in true blog fasion, with the links to their authors and the player commented upon.
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The key paragraphs:
MLB’s home run rate has fluctuated wildly in the last four seasons, driven primarily by a baseball that has varied between extremes of air resistance. As the aerodynamic drag on the baseball decreases, balls hit with the same exit velocity travel further, turning deep fly outs into dingers.
In 2017, I came up with a way to measure the air resistance of the baseball using data from MLB’s pitch tracking system. By measuring the loss in speed of a pitch from when it leaves the pitcher’s hand to when it crosses the plate, it’s possible to ascertain how much drag acted on the baseball. This data showed conclusively that the baseball created the current home run era. MLB later acceded to this fact thanks to the work of a commission of scientists and statisticians who confirmed some of these findings.
One week into this year, I wrote that we were headed for some of the lowest air resistance and highest home run rates to date. The season certainly obliged, churning out a record-breaking home run total that shattered 2017’s prior highs. Air resistance was mostly consistent over the course of the season, remaining at a level just below 2017.
Until October. In the last week’s worth of Division Series games, the drag coefficient spiked to a high it hadn’t regularly sat at since 2016. October days only contain a fraction of the games of a typical regular season night, but we’re still dealing with a sample of more than 800 fastballs to measure drag with. The probability that a random selection of games from the rest of the regular season would feature as much air resistance as we’ve seen so far in the postseason is about one in one thousand. This was an abrupt spike, as well: It’s the largest change in drag coefficient from week to week this season, by a factor of three.
It begins:
On Monday, in game four of the NLDS, Max Muncy stepped up to bat against Nationals closer Sean Doolittle. On the fourth pitch, Doolittle left a 94 mile per hour fastball hanging over the center of the strike zone, and Muncy took a monstrous cut. The ball left the bat at 107 miles per hour on a 32 degree angle relative to the ground: a perfect home run trajectory. “That ball was absolutely crushed,” exclaimed Ernie Johnson after the play.
Then something unexpected happened. In a season with more than 6700 dingers, when a less air resistant ball has combined with stronger hitters to produce the highest home run rate in history, this fly ball wafted back to the warning track and fell into Michael Taylor’s glove. Muncy looked up to the sky, smiled, and shook his head.
Sadly, sharing the BP link below does not get us free riders over the paywall...
Three balls last night that I thought were going out, and so did the batters who hit them:
Meadows in the third
Correa in the fourth
Gurriel in the eighth
Describing Gerrit Cole: "He's got every pitch in every quadrant."
That's the perspective from third base. From home plate: “That pitching staff the Rays have, that ball looks tiny and it’s coming in hot and it is moving everywhere.’’
In his last 24 starts he's 18-0.
Casey Kotchman, Brandon Wood, and Howie Kendrick. What a system the Angels had back then.
The nerds take a big L.
Harper gets another manager fired.
Glad I'm not a Phillies fan.
Let's see what other rude takes I can manage on the news.
Can pitchers feel the difference in the seams, by the way? Why don't they talk about it?
If this article by Robert Arthur at BP can be shared on Facebook, it can be shared here.
Obviously Howie Kendrick didn't get the memo. But Muncy was shocked and so am I.
Unless Cole pulls a Foltynewicz, I don't see the Astros losing this game at home.
Today's Matchups to Watch
- Tommy Pham vs. Gerrit Cole: 18 PA, .500/.500/.778, 1 HR
- Aledmys Diaz vs. Tyler Glasnow: 11 PA, .300/.300/.900, 1 HR
- Matt Duffy vs. Gerrit Cole: 14 PA, .154/.214/.154, 0 HR
- Eric Sogard vs. Gerrit Cole: 17 PA, .133/.235/.200, 0 HR
- Willy Adames vs. Gerrit Cole: 11 PA, .000/.091/.000, 0 HR
Dodgers fans trashed his jersey after last night's game.
Has anyone ever read / written up something about how effective starters are as relievers in the post season?
Just drilled Acuna with a 13-1 lead.
Yes, I'm still watching!
I hope his mom cringed.
Braves made the largest error by only starting Mike Soroka once.
The 4th pitcher of the game secures the third out in the third inning.
Advertisers are demanding a refund.
Another ouch. This is awful.
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My question: Why don't the players, especially the pitchers, talk about this?