Recent Comments
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Easy yes: Rolen, Kent, Andruw Jones.
Other yes: Wagner, Helton.
Easy no: all the steroids guys we know about
Tough no: Ortiz. I don't buy those who argue his stats are borderline. The HOF sniff test says you always thought of him as a HOFer when you watched him hit.
But.....it's not *just* the 2003 steroid test, it's the 2016 batting line. I see him as baseball's Lance Armstrong, who used to say he was 'tested and tested and tested'. Just because Papi was clearly one step ahead of the testing doesn't mean he wasn't using. His career arc alone suggests he was. Unless in 2016 (or 2011-16) he took up yoga or launch angle or was just in the best shape of his life thanks to a diet consisting solely of blueberries and Evian.
That plus the positive (and maybe a dash of roid rage) and I don't think I could check the box.
It's too bad we don't have a two-year Statcast scan for 1997-1998.
I consider peak to be best 7 year non-consecutive seasons. He had a very concentrated 5-6 seasons. His top 7 seasons make up 3/4 of his total value. I see that as problematic for a HOF candidacy.
Sponsored by Nike ...
His profits over the last couple years balance out the money wasted on him in auctions in 2018-19.
Third in the Fielding Bible voting at multi-position and qualifying at three is a definite plus. His 10 HBP were welcome if you play in an OBP league, not if you don't. Slugged .563 in 25 games as the cleanup hitter.
Very steady all year with a nice little finishing kick (.313/.374/.477 in September). Expect more of the same, hoping for more.
He started going the opposite way but... didn't work.
Our winter masochists say close but no cigar.
HOF Candidate Spotlight
 | WAR: 61.8 Better than 48.2% of HOFers Black Ink: 16 Better than 40.1% of HOFers Gray Ink: 143 Better than 39.3% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 175.0 Better than 67.6% of HOFers JAWS: 54.16 Better than 54.5% of HOFers at 1B |
Todd Helton is in his 4th year of eligibility, and has steadily gained traction, receiving almost 45% of the vote last year. His 2000 season has the most black ink of any year in his career, when he led the majors in batting average, OPS, RBI and doubles. There are only 5 other players who hit 40 home runs with a .370 BA in a season: Barry Bonds and 4 HOFers. He also provided good defensive contributions during his career, leading the NL in double plays turned at first base in 6 different seasons and finishing his career at 3rd place all-time in that department.
Some people point to Helton's offensive prowess being aided by playing in the hitter's heaven of Coors Field, but it's worth noting that during his peak years of 1998 to 2007, his adjusted OPS+, which takes park factor into account, comes out to 144, 14th among players with 3000 PA in that span but keeping pace with big names like Carlos Delgado and Gary Sheffield.
See player page on Baseball-Reference.com
See Glossary of terms.
Great career. Belongs in two team HOFs.
Retirement Spotlight
 | WAR: 44.2 Better than 15.8% of HOFers Black Ink: 8 Better than 23.1% of HOFers Gray Ink: 148 Better than 43.7% of HOFers HOF Monitor: 98.0 Better than 25.9% of HOFers JAWS: 39.42 Better than 11.3% of HOFers at P |
It was announced this morning that 16-year veteran starter Jon Lester has decided to retire. Lester's rookie season with the Red Sox was cut short by a diagnosis of lymphoma that required offseason chemotherapy to treat. He would recover and go on to be a key piece in two of Boston's World Series victories, and later winning a NLCS MVP and World Series with the 2016 Chicago Cubs. Lester currently has the 5th most playoff Win Probability Added among pitchers, only trailing Mariano Rivera, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte. Lester retires with exactly 200 wins, only behind Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke for most pitcher wins since 2006.
See player page on Baseball-Reference.com
See Glossary of terms.
re: Sosa ... "nothing else" ... I'm not a big Sosa fan, but 2 30/30 seasons prior to his "great peak" seem like more than "nothing" ...
The stats on the Angels are doubled. This has happened before. I'll fix it tomorrow.
Mine mix playing career and certain factors that I find disqualifying. My disqualifying factors, like everyone else's are subjective.
Easy Yes
1 Bonds
2 Rolen
Borderline Yes Hitters
3 Andruw Jones
4 Big Papi
5 Sheffield
6 Abreu
7 Kent
I think Starters of this era need to be reconsidered:
8 Buehlre
9 Hudson
10 Pettitte
Nos, but considered strongly
Clemens - b/c of statutory rape
Schilling - b/c of suggestions to hang journalists; desire not to be consdired
ARod - suspension for PEDs
Manny - multiple suspensions for PEDs
Sosa - great peak, nothing else
Helton - too many on my list, behind the other corner hitters/DH in my rankings, went with Kent over Helton for my last hitter, otherwise he's a yes for me
Wagner - too few innings
Rollins - I'd like more chances to evaluate his career, but he's no better than 12-15 on my list
Nathan - see Wagner
Not considered based on performance alone
Vizquel
Hunter
Lincecum
Howard
Morneau
Papelbon
Pierzynski
Teixeira
Speculation: the Dodgers after they send Trea Turner to the Yankees who need little more than a one year rental at SS.
Maybe there is a Stage Four and maybe Robert has found it.
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New Post: A Different Way to Evaluate Hitters
Statcast xERA: 4.89
Forecaster xERA: 4.17
SIERA: 4.45
ERC: 3.59
As with Luis Garcia, ERC, the Bill James metric, is the outlier. Mize's actual ERA could well have been lower.
The Forecaster's xERA is explained on page 39 with the formula given; there are no Statcast measurements in the mix.
The Handbook's ERC is explained on pp. 615-616 with the formula given; there are no Statcast measurement in the mix.
SIERA is explained in the Fangraphs glossary by Piper Slowinski in July 2011.
"Interested in calculating SIERA yourself?" he writes. "Good luck. But if you want to try, here’s Matt Swartz’s formula."
I didn't bother to pursue this, because anything devised that long ago doesn't have Statcast measurements in the mix. It has to be looking at the same things, albeit in different ways, as the Forecaster and the Handbook.
And then, of course, there's FIP.
And beyond that, xFIP (4.37).
As we contemplate this mind-numbing array of choices, really all we want to know is, Which one is the most predictive?
Then again, it's not that complicated. They fall into two groups. Theres ERC and there's all the others. I go with all the others.
Bonds, Clemens, ManRam, Wagner. OK, Schilling too.
Statcast xERA: 3.98
Forecaster xERA: 3.89
Why do both formulas think Garcia's ERA should have been higher? More than half a run higher? I would think Statcast, especially, would lean the other way. Seriously fast FBv, more than a ten mph slower EV (on all his pitches).
SIERA (yet another "should be": 3.91
ERC (the Handbook's version): 3.26.
I vote for ERC.
Who would you have voted for (up to 10) on the HOF ballot.
Here's mine: Bonds, Rollins, Clemons, Ortiz, Andruw Jones, and Schilling.
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Percentiles --
FB Spin 100
CB Spin 92
The 192 total is second in all of baseball.
I would say, Guess who first is? But I'm posting that next and most people read the comments as they appear in Recent.